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February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier
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Afternoon onset is predominately sleet/fine snow pellets -- definitely not the fat dendrite flakes that I was hoping to see; certainly the track of the storm and the deeper low has knocked down our forecast totals down in SE Cincy. --- i would guess 5-7"...going to be hard to get a good measurement...I guess our drifts here won't be as bad as East Central Indiana.

Still expecting a spectacular show at some point this afternoon or evening.

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

First flakes flying here.  RAP has upped us to over 0.20" of precip now, and the HRRR and NAMs have bumped us into the high teens.  Should hopefully be able to fluff 3-4" out of that, which is a HUGE win compared to how this looked a few days ago.

18z RGEM with 0.19" out your way as well.

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6 minutes ago, BigHoss said:

Talk me out of this busting HARD in IND

IND still seems very much to think that this is on track to verify as expected. We're not in the true heart of the event yet, which should begin in a couple of hours, if I'm not mistaken.

The 3:30 disco from IND is worth a read to put your mind at ease:
 

Quote
.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

Satellite imagery continues to blossom over the Ohio Valley this afternoon, with water vapor
indicating growing depth of atmospheric moisture. Visible satellite imagery indicates some
convective layers across Western TN/KY, which is all steadily advecting north and expected
to move across Central/Southern Indiana later this evening. Precipitable water at the sfc
is also on the rise, with values ranging from .4 inches across the north to .6 inches across
Southern Indiana. Radar reflectivity across the area continues to be on the rise in volume
and intensity this afternoon. The next line of stronger snowfall is approaching Crawfordsville
to Edinburgh to Rushville line. This area was steadily lifting north and expected to be in
the Indy metro area by 4pm.

Vertical lift in the lower levels will be robust this evening as well, which should aid
in dendrite size growth and volume as the greater snowfall rates increase. Further compounding
the complexity to the atmosphere is the layer of anomalous warm/moist air steadily advecting
north, eluded to in the prior discussion in regards to the precipitable water.

Thermal profiles indicate that dendrite size should increase marginally over the
next few hours, coupled with the deeper moisture aloft. Unfortunately pressure change
will become mixed to the surface, pushing gusts to between 20-30 mph, further exacerbating
conditions bringing visibilities down to less than 1 mile frequently, due to the fine
dendrite size. Cant rule out whiteout conditions periodically this evening as well.

The main concern for this evening will be on the precise path of the 850mb low.
Typically in more robust winter storms this indicates the location of the deformation
axis, which is also the location of the heaviest snowfall due to the forcing and supportive
atmospheric conditions. Timing for this feature still progged to be in the early/mid
evening timeframe across Central Indiana.

 

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

First flakes flying here.  RAP has upped us to over 0.20" of precip now, and the HRRR and NAMs have bumped us into the high teens.  Should hopefully be able to fluff 3-4" out of that, which is a HUGE win compared to how this looked a few days ago.

Cyclone will never be defeated. 

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Latest from ILN...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
339 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Significant winter storm to continue to impact the region
overnight into early Tuesday as surface low pressure tracks
into the Upper Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure will settle
over the region bringing dry weather and cold temperatures
Tuesday into Wednesday. Another system with a similar trajectory
will create another round of winter weather for Wednesday night
and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Major winter storm to continue to impact the area tonight
into early Tuesday. This storm will likely cause a range of
impacts from very heavy snow up to a foot across portions of
East Central Indiana and West Central Ohio to up to a half inch
of ice over the Scioto River Valley/Southeast Ohio and portions
of Northeast KY.

Model solution consensus toward more amplified mid level trof.
This leads to further west and deeper surface low. This allows
more warm air aloft over the very cold surface temperatures.

Precipitation beginning to re-develop and fill in from the
southwest as favorable lift re-develops. This pcpn initially is
falling as freezing rain/sleet along the I-71 corridor.

8H Frontogenesis intensifies this evening  with a dual upper
level jet band providing upper level divergence. Expect snowfall
rates this evening to be 1 to 1.5 inches per hour in heavy snow
over the northwest portion of ILN/s FA. Confidence in heavy snow
over the northwest is high. With more warm air into the I-71
corridor this region will be in the transition zone of pcpn
types. Sleet and freezing rain will diminish snow totals in this
transition zone -- with 5 to 8 inches expected overnight.

Over the lower Scioto River Valley and northeast KY the
predominate precipitation type is freezing rain. Major ice
accumulation up to a half inch is forecast overnight. This
amount of ice will likely lead to power outages and tree limbs
down.

With sfc low tracking thru the Upper Ohio Valley overnight
expect the pressure gradient to increase tonight -- especially
over West Central Ohio. North-northeast winds gusting up to 35
mph will result in blowing and drifting snow overnight.

Have continued winter storm warnings across the entire area.
Cold temperatures to continue with lows from near 10 northwest
to near 20 southeast. Cold wind chills in the single digits
thru the daylight hours.

Large surface to build into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Tuesday
night. Very cold temperatures with lows from the single digits
below zero northwest to the single digits above zero southeast.
Wind chill look to be single digits below zero.
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But spring and svr wx season is coming...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
442 PM EST MON FEB 15 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN DOUGHERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  NORTHWESTERN BAKER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  EASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  EAST CENTRAL EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  
* UNTIL 515 PM EST.  
      
* AT 442 PM EST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARLINGTON, OR 12 MILES NORTH OF  
  COLQUITT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   
           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
           BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE   
           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  MORGAN AND LEARY AROUND 455 PM EST.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
COMMISSARY HILL, IVEYS MILL, MILFORD, CRESTVIEW, BERMUDA,  
DOUGLASVILLE, HOLT, PATMOS AND DAMASCUS.  
  

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