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wdrag

Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

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5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

30hr + event on the GFS. Possibly not all snow and there could be a few breaks in the precip. Still could be fun.

Not that I think this will happen but this event could be even bigger if the coastal moisture gets cranking on Friday 

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There's a sweet theoretical scenario where we get a period of heavy snow midday Thurs. indicated by fgen charts on the NAM with limited mixing shown on the EC and the longer duration Fri snow of the CMC and now even GFS. There's a wishcast for you.

I like the NWS snowfall forecasts where they are now. I think we get at least a few hours of moderate snow on Thursday probably followed by sleet NW and/or ZR/rain SE. I think the longer duration idea is real, but whether or not it amounts to anything and temps are cold enough remains to be seen. Let's see which way it trends.

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I think we are seeing a subtle trend of weakening the initial WAA precipitation in connection with the dampening of the initial shortwave moving through the midwest and Lakes region on Thurs. At the same time we are seeing an increase in precipitation back to the south and west overnight Thurs into Fri as more energy in the trof is left upstream. I think there's a good chance these trends continue.

With a moist Gulf of Mexico connection I'm hoping we get the best of both scenarios: light to moderate overrunning snow on Thurs and then lingering light (pos moderate?) snow into the day Friday.

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11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

There's a sweet theoretical scenario where we get a period of heavy snow midday Thurs. indicated by fgen charts on the NAM with limited mixing shown on the EC and the longer duration Fri snow of the CMC and now even GFS. There's a wishcast for you.

I like the NWS snowfall forecasts where they are now. I think we get at least a few hours of moderate snow on Thursday probably followed by sleet NW and/or ZR/rain SE. I think the longer duration idea is real, but whether or not it amounts to anything and temps are cold enough remains to be seen. Let's see which way it trends.

Definitely looking like a long duration event is possible, CMC has on and off snow for 40 hours lol 

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This is the 2nd or 3rd best looking threat of the year for most of us. There's no telling how this will play out, but these kinds of events don't come around that often.

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3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This is the 2nd or 3rd best looking threat of the year for most of us. There's no telling how this will play out, but these kinds of events don't come around that often.

Models might be focusing more on a coastal threat

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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Definitely looking like a long duration event is possible, CMC has on and off snow for 40 hours lol 

The RGEM has snow (at least flurries/light snow) in the area for 50 hours!

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2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This is the 2nd or 3rd best looking threat of the year for most of us. There's no telling how this will play out, but these kinds of events don't come around that often.

Hopefully you're right. I'm not liking the trends on some models toward making this a 24 hour long sheared out mess. I don't think something like that would end up as more than a solid advisory event. I guess that would keep it cooler for the area but we need the front end thump or the consolidated Fri low idea to happen. GFS and CMC are in sheared out mess land now. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully you're right. I'm not liking the trends on some models toward making this a 24 hour long sheared out mess. I guess that would keep it cooler for the area but we need the front end thump or the consolidated Fri low idea to happen. GFS and CMC are in sheared out mess land now. 

Sheared out mess if temps are below freezing will still accumulate but yes probably to hit big totals would need some stretch of actual moderate to heavy snow.   

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully you're right. I'm not liking the trends on some models toward making this a 24 hour long sheared out mess. I don't think something like that would end up as more than a solid advisory event. I guess that would keep it cooler for the area but we need the front end thump or the consolidated Fri low idea to happen. GFS and CMC are in sheared out mess land now. 

Models might be focusing more on the coastal now or they can just be confused right now.

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RGEM.png.f892523813224aa293bc3381de2a6006.png

Wow the RGEM looks primed to deliver another period of meaningful snow Fri night. Almost as much falls with the 2nd wave as the first for some areas.

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models might be focusing more on the coastal now or they can just be confused right now.

Yep, it might just be adjusting toward this being a Friday focused event. We just have to wait and see.

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully you're right. I'm not liking the trends on some models toward making this a 24 hour long sheared out mess. I don't think something like that would end up as more than a solid advisory event. I guess that would keep it cooler for the area but we need the front end thump or the consolidated Fri low idea to happen. GFS and CMC are in sheared out mess land now. 

I see your point. But big snow thumps almost always end as a mix or dryslot, which spoils it a little bit. I know the colored graphics look a little sheared out, but light to moderate snow with temps below freezing might not feel sheared out in reality.

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The GEFS mean continues to reduce initial overrunning precip (though still healthy) and increase both the total duration and QPF on Fri. The event total is still >0.75" area wide and 1+ NYC and LI.

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6 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said:

Just look at the frontalgenic forcing mid day Thursday there be snowfall rates 1-3” per hour

The WAA snows should easily get into central NJ and probably NYC Thursday morning & afternoon. 

Snow growth should be very good with temps probably in the low to mid 20s. Ratios could be higher than 10:1 and that alone could drop 4-6" over 3-6hrs. 

Increasingly models are indicating a coastal element which bears watching.

So my initial thoughts are 3-6" from WAA snows up to NYC then a dry slot or sleet followed by another round of snow on Friday.

How much falls with that is unknown and models are still trending.

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I LOL'd at the insane area of 2-3 inch per hour rates on the 3kn NAM....given the general trends in recent storms its exactly where you want it 36-42 hours out if you're near NYC

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5 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Nope heavy snow at night when it's cold so it's fluffy and accumulates better due to ratios and you get more. If you want it photogenic just go outside and play in it, who cares what time it is. Don't go gettin' all old guy I gotta stay in at night on us now ;)  

 

It made all the difference today. My driveway is 100% ice free. I'll take it. Actually when I was out I noticed that a lot of S-SW faces are melted off so yeah, it's a thing now.

No I just mean I dont want to shoot at ISO 5000 to get nice images lol.

I thought the better accumulations at night thing only happens when we're past March 15th lol.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I LOL'd at the insane area of 2-3 inch per hour rates on the 3kn NAM....given the general trends in recent storms its exactly where you want it 36-42 hours out if you're near NYC

what time is the heaviest snow supposed to occur?

This is really starting to remind you of the first storm in Feb 1994 isn't it?

 

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34 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This is the 2nd or 3rd best looking threat of the year for most of us. There's no telling how this will play out, but these kinds of events don't come around that often.

Should've trusted that -5 AO over what models were showing a few days ago ;)

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The concern is real for N and esp NE areas about a possible lack of good rates. The flip side is that ratios should be higher, mixing is minimized, and storms that tap into the Gulf tend to be pretty moist.

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