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February 14-16 Winter Storm


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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don't know if this will actually happen but if it were me, I'd go winter storm watch for Lake/Porter with the afternoon package... would be mainly for the northern parts of the counties.  There's more time to decide about what to do with Cook county.

No watch with the afternoon package and no mention of entertaining one in the afd.  Do not pass go, do not collect $200

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Deep digging upper level trough through the Central Plains states 
will gradually shift east and become negatively tilted slightly. 
This will result in surface low pressure over the delta region of 
the Mississippi River to move northeast toward West Virginia by 
Monday evening followed by a secondary stronger low pressure system. 
The first low will be in response to an upper level positive 
vorticity maximum sliding into the southern Great Lakes region and 
then the secondary low deepens as the upper trough becomes more 
negatively tilted.  Typically, deepening low tracks through the 
Panhandle of West Virginia are ideal tracks for our forecast area as 
this places the best frontogenetical forcing over our area.  Latest 
upper air model soundings suggest this forcing axis will remain just 
south of our area as the secondary low moves northeast through 
Virginia. Current thinking was to lower snow accumulations slightly 
due to the above comments and this is in line with the WPC guidance.
Will not be issuing any headlines at this time due to the long 
duration snow accumulation event and will not exceed the 8 inches in 
24 hour time frame.  However, potential for total snow accumulations 
up to 9 inches possible in the east with gradually lowering amounts 
to 4 inch totals in the Toledo to Findlay areas. 

From NWS Cleveland. Not exactly sure I buy this explanation. 

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26 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Or they could be one of the worst forecast offices in the country. Even Toledo TV mets frequently take shots at them and the "I-75 wall"

Yeah I thought about that but didn't want to be the one to say it  :D

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27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Isn't the tweet saying that the surface high is weaker than progged?  Let's at least get the tweet correct, whether or not you think it will matter.

Yes which they are correct, the models are stronger at surface vs reality.

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21 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

CLE finally issued Winter Storm Watches, but not for NW Ohio. Not exactly I buy that either.

CLE and ILN are really hugging the further east idea that’s the gfs and others had. I understand they consider a lot more than just models but it’s kinda appalling given that the more eastern models aren’t even initializing the high pressure correctly. 

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22 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Maybe they coordinated this one with LSX and will issue another coordinated with DVN/LOT?

Literally makes 0 sense. Like the snow continues up into our area with similar amounts. HRRR was the driest with 2-3in but other models had 3-5in+. Glad you're getting in on the action finally. 

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