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Hoosier

February 14-16 Winter Storm

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The 18z NAM seems to move a bit back west from what I saw., I think.

1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

Funny, I used to dread the NW trend, now I'm begging for it.  

 

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don't know if this will actually happen but if it were me, I'd go winter storm watch for Lake/Porter with the afternoon package... would be mainly for the northern parts of the counties.  There's more time to decide about what to do with Cook county.

No watch with the afternoon package and no mention of entertaining one in the afd.  Do not pass go, do not collect $200

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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Deep digging upper level trough through the Central Plains states 
will gradually shift east and become negatively tilted slightly. 
This will result in surface low pressure over the delta region of 
the Mississippi River to move northeast toward West Virginia by 
Monday evening followed by a secondary stronger low pressure system. 
The first low will be in response to an upper level positive 
vorticity maximum sliding into the southern Great Lakes region and 
then the secondary low deepens as the upper trough becomes more 
negatively tilted.  Typically, deepening low tracks through the 
Panhandle of West Virginia are ideal tracks for our forecast area as 
this places the best frontogenetical forcing over our area.  Latest 
upper air model soundings suggest this forcing axis will remain just 
south of our area as the secondary low moves northeast through 
Virginia. Current thinking was to lower snow accumulations slightly 
due to the above comments and this is in line with the WPC guidance.
Will not be issuing any headlines at this time due to the long 
duration snow accumulation event and will not exceed the 8 inches in 
24 hour time frame.  However, potential for total snow accumulations 
up to 9 inches possible in the east with gradually lowering amounts 
to 4 inch totals in the Toledo to Findlay areas. 
 

From NWS Cleveland. Not exactly sure I buy this explanation. 

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26 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Or they could be one of the worst forecast offices in the country. Even Toledo TV mets frequently take shots at them and the "I-75 wall"

Yeah I thought about that but didn't want to be the one to say it  :D

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21 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Sarcasm aside, do you see this coming back a little bit??

Yes, everything has been north of what was forecast all year, today included.

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2 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

Almost seems like at times NWS Cleveland does not care about their NW Ohio counties at all. 

Definitely get the step kid feeling over here sometimes.  

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2 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

Almost seems like at times NWS Cleveland does not care about their NW Ohio counties at all. 

They don't, they have missed so much severe in that part of the state.

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27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Isn't the tweet saying that the surface high is weaker than progged?  Let's at least get the tweet correct, whether or not you think it will matter.

Yes which they are correct, the models are stronger at surface vs reality.

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5 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

 

This is just crazy...

6-9" as far NW as Janesville WI? Neo should keep his forecasts in the matrix

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Yes, everything has been north of what was forecast all year, today included.
Everyone biting hard on it down here. LMK saying they might have to drop to Advisories NW.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, Cary67 said:

6-9" as far NW as Janesville WI? Neo should keep his forecasts on the matrix

Consider the snow ratio mix here. It will be higher due to the rather cold temperatures.

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4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

What storm has the GFS done well on lately???

For my area, most of the recent ones. I really has been spot on since the cold and the snow hit here. 

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15 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Really confused why ILX didn't extend advisories north. Pretty much all models extend the snow south of advisory criteria well north. 

 

Maybe they coordinated this one with LSX and will issue another coordinated with DVN/LOT?

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21 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

CLE finally issued Winter Storm Watches, but not for NW Ohio. Not exactly I buy that either.

CLE and ILN are really hugging the further east idea that’s the gfs and others had. I understand they consider a lot more than just models but it’s kinda appalling given that the more eastern models aren’t even initializing the high pressure correctly. 

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22 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Maybe they coordinated this one with LSX and will issue another coordinated with DVN/LOT?

Literally makes 0 sense. Like the snow continues up into our area with similar amounts. HRRR was the driest with 2-3in but other models had 3-5in+. Glad you're getting in on the action finally. 

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40 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

CLE finally issued Winter Storm Watches, but not for NW Ohio. Not exactly I buy that either.

So they changed their minds over the course of about an hour? Why? 

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Just now, Snohio said:

So they changed their minds over the course of about an hour? Why? 

Your answer is as good as mine. Inexcusable in my opinion of how they have handled this so far. They have been the same in similar situations in years past.

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