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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Hopefully this isn’t the case of the NAM having that one run that’s just too juiced close in. But that’s at least encouraging for Baltimore. Stays all snow up here at least 

Yeah important to remember that the NAM was holding on to a better storm for us just this past weekend for longer than other models.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM.  We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. 

Yeah, if I had to choose I’d take the .25 QPF on the euro at 30 degrees over the 0.8 on the NAM of sleet/white rain for round 1.

At 42 wave 2 is south, maybe it can make up some ground though. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM.  We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. 

Yeah, it's been really persistent about that for awhile now.  I hope that's not necessarily correlated with the now notably higher QPF amounts (for first wave)...i.e., we can only get higher precip if we get the mix around this area.

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Slightly better heights with less suppression over the NE.  Wave 2 looks like it will be a little bit north to my eyes.

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Unfortunately right in the NAM wheelhouse. IIRC it was also the first model to introduce a changeover for the big storm on 1/31-2/1. 

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Chin up y’all, we’re gonna will this son of a bitch north.  This next frame is like the 34th most important frame of our lives 

ETA. Looks like the bleeding south has stopped

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM.  We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. 

It's a pretty thin and high up layer...so at least when it does mix its probably sleet/snow mix.  That looks like several inches of snow and a significant sleet mixed in there also...which can be fun.  It's better then a couple inches of snow and then dry slot or freezing rain imo.  There is also the chance the NAM is being to aggressive with that but just saying I don't think the NAM is a complete disaster for DC but if it can be just 1 degree too warm in the mid layers...youre looking at a great THUMP.  

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2nd wave didn't quite touch Baltimore with precip at 18z, doing so this run. But the bigger change by far this run was wave 1; wave 2 looks like it will be very similar, only a little bit north.

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12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM.  We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. 

Gotta live on the razor's edge if we want the goods. 

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One thing is for sure, the euro did not pick up an ally in the NAM. Also, on 3km, 2nd wave through 48 isn't as expansive with precip even if the low is a bit north.

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Definite expanse of the total precip on the northern edge.  Hard to tell but maybe 0.3 from wave 2 up to dc.

A81DF55C-0418-4640-BA76-64F5C74982AC.png

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