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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, at 63, it got sheared down a little north of I-70.  Still wouldn't worry up there.  I'd rather be up there than here, I don't care what the NAM shows.

I'm not concerned by verbatim NAM output. I'm just looking for general moves/tells.

Edit: Let's see if my "theory" about the NAM "leading the way" in the quite holds true. Precip increased on the northern edge for this run.

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5 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

The only “worry” from this run is marginal temps. We simply don’t do marginal well anymore. Hopefully it’s not correct since no support from other models temp wise. 

Definitely.  The NAM does show dewpoints around 27-29 with a temp of 33 during moderate snow at night.  Would imagine wet bulbing would be more effective...

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This is a cut and dry question - and the reason why we try to lean away from having people ask "when will watches be issued"

It's cut and dry in the watch definition. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined - that is an EXCELLENT resource page for newer members. 

Winter Storm Watch

A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours. It does not mean that significant and hazardous winter weather will occur...it only means it is possible.

Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of:
1)  5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period
AND/OR
2)  Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines.
AND/OR
3)  a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind.

The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Watch for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period)

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

It looks active going forward so there will be opportunities, and thats all you can ask for really. Your area has had more bad luck so far than places around you.

 

2 hours ago, frd said:

Very difficult to get snow North of Dover this year . Two winter storm warnings and about 4 inches combined. Either WAA dies before it reaches us, or storm development is off to the North or we are not in an area for the best dynamics. Your area has done better. Really thought the baroclinic boundary would deliver.  Will it ever, I am not sure. Even next week looks questionable. The 240 hour look does not favor the same areas that have been screwed over and over.  

Rooting for you both and of course all for that fact. Still there is the potential with this setup for our area rather then the usual 45 and rain.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

?  Looks like it got this entire subforum?

Rates are much worse north of DC, still favors the southern areas. But an improvement overall.

 

edit: actually it’s a bit worse in my area and NE. There’s a NW-SE fringe. Went from 5 to more like 4 inches of snow per RGEM.

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