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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I just came from the Philly thread (this forum...not Philly weather) and Ralphie Simpson is making it sound like storm cancel. I don't think the 0z guidance looks too bad? I mean - if we're expecting 12-18" well yeah, but this should still be a 3-6", 4-8", 5-10" kind of deal. 

I'll take that.

My general thought in winter: Much like a woman, you take the 4-6” you get and be happy with it. 

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39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I just came from the Philly thread (this forum...not Philly weather) and Ralphie Simpson is making it sound like storm cancel. I don't think the 0z guidance looks too bad? I mean - if we're expecting 12-18" well yeah, but this should still be a 3-6", 4-8", 5-10" kind of deal. 

I'll take that.

Yea this wasn't really looking like much more than a 6-12" type event at any point in the heavy axis, other than like the 18z NAM. Another thing I didn't mention on my long post earlier going over the mid-level lows was that we're not really deepening the coastal storm. It's just an overrunning wave attacking a cold high pressure with overrunning WAA precip in either one or two separate heavier precip areas depending on the model. And the weak 850mb low never goes to the coast nor strengthens much, with the parent low staying west of here. So you don't develop the anomalous easterly flow you want to look for to start getting the widespread big amounts and intense banding. 

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21 hours ago, anotherman said:


Every one of your posts is filled with whining. Come on, man! It could be last winter!

Well when it comes down to it yes I complain when 12 hours out they cant get a forecast right.  Im glad it isnt last winter Im just saying when I hear the most accurate forecast from local news I just wonder what the % is like 20? lol when every one else is like 15. I dont want to complain but it feels like forecasts have got worse vs when I was a kid they felt 9 times out of 10 spot on.

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Well when it comes down to it yes I complain when 12 hours out they cant get a forecast right.  Im glad it isnt last winter Im just saying when I hear the most accurate forecast from local news I just wonder what the % is like 20? lol when every one else is like 15. I dont want to complain but it feels like forecasts have got worse vs when I was a kid they felt 9 times out of 10 spot on.

How much did you scrutinize a weather forecast as a kid?
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I did a lot actually. Most of the times like I said they were pretty right. I mean the blizzard of 93 and 96 both were called a week plus out. Other storms like in high school we pretty much got the snow they called for every time if they called for 6 inchs we got about that. if they said 4 inchs then change to sleet at noon. right on the dot it changed at noon. now it feels like they put to much stock in models and dont forecast or go instincts. I mean how many times have you heard a model was thrown out cause of a error or a problem with the initialization

?

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CTP freshened up the Watch a few hours ago.

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
254 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

PAZ027-028-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-172315-
/O.EXT.KCTP.WS.A.0007.210218T0900Z-210219T1500Z/
Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-
Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Chambersburg,
Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg,
Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
254 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning and evening
  commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are
  possible Thursday morning. The risk of a wintry mix Thursday
  night has been reduced and shifted farther to the southeast
  toward I-95.

 

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Here is the morning discussion from CTP:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Clouds continue to thicken into a mid to high level overcast sky by late evening. Attention turns to the next round of accumulating snowfall in central PA Thursday/Thursday night into Friday morning. Shortwave energy emerging from the southern Rockies out into the Plains leads to increasing warm advection downstream with moisture influx from the GOMEX. 700mb low will track northeast and cause WAA precipitation to overrun a cold wedge entrenched along the Appalachians. Model guidance trended deeper with the cold air for this cycle. This lead to a primary or dominant ptype of snow in CPA and therefore reduced/shifted icing risk farther to the southeast toward the I-95 corridor. We were keen to ride the winter storm watch on this shift, but some important call-outs would include 1) lower confidence in warning numbers for the northern portion of the watch area and 2) lower probs for wintry mix impacting areas to the southeast of I-81. Still can`t rule out a mix period Thursday night over the far southeast zones, but again the colder model trend has shifted axis of sleet/freezing rain farther southeast along the I-95 corridor. Updated storm total snow from tonight into early Friday morning shows a modest decrease/increase in numbers across the northwest/southeast portions of central PA. Max amounts are around 6-8 inches along the PA Turnpike/I-78 corridor. HREF and latest HRRR agree in an onset just prior to midnight over the south-central Alleghenies with potential for a "thump" of moderate-heavy snow Thursday morning as it spreads to the northeast with rates ~ 1"/hr most likely focused over the southern tier counties near the PA Turnpike/I-78 corridor. Another period of moderate snow looks possible Thursday evening with longer duration light snow intensity Thursday night Friday morning. Snow ends by Friday afternoon, but some lake-effect and upslope snow showers may linger over the northwest Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands.

 

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