Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,893
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Duke Of Lizards
    Newest Member
    Duke Of Lizards
    Joined

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


Recommended Posts

There's been a lot of understandable frustration with models this winter but just realize what what they are up against...ridiculously complex thermo and fluid atmospheric dynamics coupled with inadequate sampling.  Then trying to pinpoint individual feature days in advance from features hundreds if not thousands of miles away.  I think it's a miracle they even get close.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's been a lot of understandable frustration with models this winter but just realize what what they are up against...ridiculously complex thermo and fluid atmospheric dynamics coupled with inadequate sampling.  Then trying to pinpoint individual feature days in advance from features hundreds if not thousands of miles away.  I think it's a miracle they even get close.  

Exactly. Being in the science field (Mechanical Engineer), I have a huge appreciation of what these models do and what meteorologists can predict days in advanced. I am amazed at how close forecasts are. However, most people think science should be exact, and it is totally the opposite.


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Voyager said:

As soon as the heavier rain came in we shot up to 32. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if we don't go up one or two more. I'm kind of doubting the whole half inch ice possibility that CTP had for my area.

I do believe we went up a degree or two after I posted this last night. It's general Tamaqua climatology in this kind of situation. The ice accrual we had when I went to bed last night was (and still is) negligible this morning. The tree tops on the highest hills surrounding the town appear to have some ice on them, but nothing here on the "valley" floor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Any ice over that way.  I’ve got just under .20” here in town.  I’m sure the ridge up top has more 

Blue Ridge was very icy last night but it never went below freezing here so the only ice I had was trash can topper/yard sign topper type.  Its 35 right now.   If you are familiar with Harbaugh Church Road I am located on the road that goes up to Pen Mar albeit it near the bottom of the incline. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those 10% chance high ends seem pretty low down here.  I would think there is a 10% chance many here get a foot.  Probably not but still 10%.

Guess you saw this clown map as well....hehe.  I'm getttin tugged back in as there is some wiggle room and the SE progression seems to be legit as we are getting closer to this.  Probably a good thing that its close on the heels of last nights "event", as the antecedent cold coupled with an HP that is decent and well placed, is likely the savior to this storm for our locals.

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, pasnownut said:

Guess you saw this clown map as well....hehe.  I'm getttin tugged back in as there is some wiggle room and the SE progression seems to be legit as we are getting closer to this.  Probably a good thing that its close on the heels of last nights "event", as the antecedent cold coupled with an HP that is decent and well placed, is likely the savior to this storm for our locals.

 

I have really grown to dislike those TT maps.  LOL.  You have to spend time investigating taint and such.  But every map I saw was a good 7-10" or higher so even without clown totals just the law of averages would suggest someone could over perform more than 10% of the time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have really grown to dislike those TT maps.  LOL.  You have to spend time investigating taint and such.  But every map I saw was a good 7-10" or higher so even without clown totals just the law of averages would suggest someone could over perform more than 10% of the time. 

Personally, I like the Pivotal Weather snow maps. You can go 10:1 or Kuchera, and they also include (fwiw anyway) ice maps. I find Pivotal's snow maps to be much closer to reality than TT's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have really grown to dislike those TT maps.  LOL.  You have to spend time investigating taint and such.  But every map I saw was a good 7-10" or higher so even without clown totals just the law of averages would suggest someone could over perform more than 10% of the time. 

Do pivotal NAM's fare better wrt frozen pricip?  I thought it was a NAM algorithm flaw, not a TT one...or maybe both?

I know Kuchera is the safter way to go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Personally, I like the Pivotal Weather snow maps. You can go 10:1 or Kuchera, and they also include (fwiw anyway) ice maps. I find Pivotal's snow maps to be much closer to reality than TT's.

Definitely.  I like TT's site better and the maps load faster when running through them (for me) but pivotals maps are more in reality as to snow.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Do pivotal NAM's fare better wrt frozen pricip?  I thought it was a NAM algorithm flaw, not a TT one...or maybe both?

I know Kuchera is the safter way to go.

Here is the Kuch map from Pivotal for the same period of the Nam.  Pivotal maps do a better job at separating different frozen types like @Voyager mentioned.

image.thumb.png.ba94b0ac552e13c93eb601585751fa36.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here is the Kuch map from Pivotal for the same period of the Nam.  Pivotal maps do a better job at separating different frozen types like @Voyager mentioned.

image.thumb.png.ba94b0ac552e13c93eb601585751fa36.png

 

Boy thats notably different.  I dont pay much attention to pivotal because of ease of use w/ TT....and as suggested last week, I only look at clown maps for frozen vs non frozen and trends in qpf placements for said frozen.  It's merely a tool for me....not a forecast whatsoever.  Oh and I get the freebie Euro from it as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

People have been questioning all winter how can we get rain from a storm that is off the east coast - 

How in the world do we get snow from a storm over Michigan? 

its all about the thermals....lol.  Looks like a messed up clipper.  700s plenty cold and 850s decent w/ wind primarily out of the W upstairs lets column stay cold enough.

gfs_z500a_us_26.png

gfs_z500a_us_27.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

People have been questioning all winter how can we get rain from a storm that is off the east coast - 

How in the world do we get snow from a storm over Michigan? 

You cannot see it in that shot but there is a departing High over the S/E Atlantic putting us in a S/W flow as well.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Mostly west with a slight south tinge. 

yep yep, but looking at source region, we are cold enough to support frozen.  I was just adding to your comment as to why we can snow in that setup.  I'd not put much weight on it until after Thurs. to see what we have left for cold.

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even as pattern looks to break, its not a flip to spring but more see saw back no forth.  Verbatim GFS shows a backdoor into march w/ cold here in the east w/ primary flow from a northerlyish kinda direction.

IMO winter continues after a couple breaks. Looking at ens guidance GFS Ens have some disagreement, but adding Euro into it, I see no real warmups and normalish kinda temps.  After St pattys, I start to care less, so it looks like as of today, we have a shot at normal backend.  AO/NAO heading back down after recent spike and possibly going slightly neg. could bode well as wavelengths start to shorten as we approach the end of winter.  Could be some more fun n trix in the bag.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Blue Ridge was very icy last night but it never went below freezing here so the only ice I had was trash can topper/yard sign topper type.  Its 35 right now.   If you are familiar with Harbaugh Church Road I am located on the road that goes up to Pen Mar albeit it near the bottom of the incline. 

I have a co worker that lives on Harbaugh Church Rd.  Last year I took old pen mar rd to come home from Lowe’s.  There’s some pretty crazy turns one that road.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I have a co worker that lives on Harbaugh Church Rd.  Last year I took old pen mar rd to come home from Lowe’s.  There’s some pretty crazy turns one that road.  

Yea, that is one windy road.   Have to take it down to 10MPH or so to do one curve.  I actually live off Old Pen Mar a little ways up but more people know Harbaugh Church so I brought that up. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...