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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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GFS holds the line from early am runs but 540 came north.  Still a forum pleaser verbatim, but still think LSV is gonna taint for a bit. 

At 54 700's/850's came notably north, but then collapse after LP moves NE. Little less CAD IMO. 

Dunno how I feel about LSV yet.  

Good rates should help a marginal thermal profile down here.  

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GFS holds the line from early am runs but 540 came north.  Still a forum pleaser verbatim, but still think LSV is gonna taint for a bit. 
At 54 700's/850's came notably north, but then collapse after LP moves NE. Little less CAD IMO. 
Dunno how I feel about LSV yet.  
Good rates should help a marginal thermal profile down here.  

Frontogenic band will be very impressive. Some taint in usual spots.


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To my eyes on the GFS the fronto band was well south of us. It looked like we made up for it with another impulse that moved through later in the PM. If that's the case, we'll definitely need to proceed with caution as that would allow warmth aloft to move overhead by that point. We need the thump to realize the totals we're seeing on the pretty maps. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

To my eyes on the GFS the fronto band was well south of us. It looked like we made up for it with another impulse that moved through later in the PM. If that's the case, we'll definitely need to proceed with caution as that would allow warmth aloft to move overhead by that point. We need the thump to realize the totals we're seeing on the pretty maps. 

fortunately we are "runnin outta time" for big shifts in guidance, and we've got some buffer room for decent acums to vascilate a bit w/o seeing a repeat of yesterdays non event.

And FWIW, it looks cold enough to keep it around through next Wed. at least.  Thats a win as well.  

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fortunately we are "runnin outta time" for big shifts in guidance, and we've got some buffer room for decent acums to vascilate a bit w/o seeing a repeat of yesterdays non event.

And FWIW, it looks cold enough to keep it around through next Wed. at least.  Thats a win as well.  

Yeah, I never liked the past event. When I saw that artic air dumping into Texas I knew we were in trouble....at least LSV.

 

This Wed/Thur deal I have liked because it’s right on the heals of that departing crappy storm and better confluence up north.

 

Should be good for a few inches, although a flip to sleet should be expected.

 

 

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Just now, Superstorm said:


Yeah, I never liked the past event. When I saw that attic air dumping into Texas I knew we were in trouble....at least LSV.

This Wed/Thur deal I have liked because it’s right on the heals of that departing crappy storm and better confluence up north.

Should be good for a few inches, although a flip to sleet should be expected.


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Thats very rarely a good deal for our region...unless AO/NAO and EPO is -5...then we all freeze.  :P

and sorry.  I'm about jipped out on the winter weather of late....call me a hog, but I want a clean snow event down here (although setup says sorry Nut...taint happenin...see what i did there 

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Thats very rarely a good deal for our region...unless AO/NAO and EPO is -5...then we all freeze.  
and sorry.  I'm about jipped out on the winter weather of late....call me a hog, but I want a clean snow event down here (although setup says sorry Nut...taint happenin...see what i did there 

Lmbo, that was funny.


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On 2/14/2021 at 1:24 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm.

#itshappeningthursday

Exactly 48 hours later...

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It's fascinating how these events can change so much as we head into game time.  This had been looking like a fairly quick hitter but now seems to be morphing into a prolonged, almost two-parter, type of storm with a nice initial thump thursday morning, then a bit of a wind down period later in the day thursday, followed by some backbuilding precipitation that runs through thursday night perhaps even lasting into friday morning as the coastal gets going.  Trending colder as well to these eyes.  Either way, all the guidance agrees that we are in for a nice winter storm.  Now, how the heck am I going to get up to the Poconos on thursday ha. 

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