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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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1 minute ago, Cambria County Wx said:

Yeah, it's moving in now, definitely trying to become more sleet.....close to 70/30, 80/20 than earlier. 

Hopefully we can stay more sleet for a good bit of this event. Looking at the dual pol products on the radar with the higher tilts it looks like the mixing layer is still pretty high up.. roughly about the 4,000ft level (up closer to the 850mb level). So that gives a good bit of time for droplets to refreeze thru the colder 925mb level to the surface.  

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No ice to speak of here in Carlisle.  Light rain has been falling for the past 2 hours and has accumulated 0.07" so far.  When the rain started the temperature was 31.1 degrees, however, it has been very slowly rising and just now has hit 32.0.  One positive thing is that if the temp doesn't go above 34 degrees with the rain, not much snow melt will occur.  Meanwhile, looking pretty good for Thursday.  NWS 5-11" of snow with sleet possible.  I don't know if I've ever seen them issue accumulations 2 1/2 - 3 days into the future.

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Hopefully we can stay more sleet for a good bit of this event. Looking at the dual pol products on the radar with the higher tilts it looks like the mixing layer is still pretty high up.. roughly about the 4,000ft level (up closer to the 850mb level). So that gives a good bit of time for droplets to refreeze thru the colder 925mb level to the surface.  

Agree. I'm encouraged that KIDI is sitting at 32 right now. Have to watch them to see how strong the warm push is. 

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3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

No ice to speak of here in Carlisle.  Light rain has been falling for the past 2 hours and has accumulated 0.07" so far.  When the rain started the temperature was 31.1 degrees, however, it has been very slowly rising and just now has hit 32.0.  One positive thing is that if the temp doesn't go above 34 degrees with the rain, not much snow melt will occur.  Meanwhile, looking pretty good for Thursday.  NWS 5-11" of snow with sleet possible.  I don't know if I've ever seen them issue accumulations 2 1/2 - 3 days into the future.

My temp has slowly backed down from 33.4 at 6pm to its current 32.2

My point and click is for 4-6" total. I'd be thrilled with that!

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My temp has slowly backed down from 33.4 at 6pm to its current 32.2

My point and click is for 4-6" total. I'd be thrilled with that!

What a roller coaster of model runs we've been on over the past week.  And what changes to the Thursday storm from just 24 hours ago.  If things don't change drastically I'll be very happy with no plain rain after whatever snow/sleet we get.  This event may just get me to seasonal climo.  8" would put me at 32" for the season and we still have 6 more weeks left with snow potential.  Even if everything stopped right now I'd still be very happy after the non-snow winter we just went through last season.

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Screaming southerly winds showing on velocity near the 850mb level, >60knots showing up. Basically the reason why this has WAA aloft and associated mixed precip driving further and further north has been so robust. With the lowest 0.5º tilt you can make out the general wind direction near the radar site as well, which is out of the ESE. That easterly component at the surface is going to keep temps from going much of anywhere.  

77362761_ScreenShot2021-02-15at9_06_28PM.thumb.png.199c747e18a6230c7eb33105e73cdb50.png

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

0z NAM def coming in colder vs 18 and 12z with the mixing portion of the Thursday storm. Very intense front end thump of snow as well. 

Yes, the 0z NAM took a big step towards every other available model for Thursday. 
Very nice front end thump despite only taking a step at this time. 
I’m looking forward to the rest of the 0z runs.

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