Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Euro holds steady, with a general 6-8" for most of the forum. Nothing earth-shattering but the warm layers don't penetrate as far north and there was a corresponding shift south with the heaviest totals into northern Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Confluence typically backs off the last 24-48 hours prior to an event - I still like where we're sitting as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Yeah, I am REALLY liking the look now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 That thump will be a good one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Looks like Thursday could be the Caboose for the active pattern. So we need it to come through for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Looks like Thursday could be the Caboose for the active pattern. So we need it to come through for us. Did you think of Caboose because of my Chattanooga Choo Choo reference on Sat? :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Did you think of Caboose because of my Chattanooga Choo Choo reference on Sat? :-). LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Today kinda turned out very quiet. 27 and bright overcast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Today kinda turned out very quiet. 27 and bright overcast here. Let's get this one over with. I doubt I even ice down here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Pretty amazing map though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Today kinda turned out very quiet. 27 and bright overcast here. You are not joking... I’ve been in winter storm warning since 7 am and have a whopping half inch of snow with brightening skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, basehore said: You are not joking... I’ve been in winter storm warning since 7 am and have a whopping half inch of snow with brightening skies. This is what I'm getting at w/ all of the chattin up Thursday, when merely 24 hours ago you looked like 6-9 up there, and now I'd wager 1-3 or 2-4 at best. Upper air pattern for Thursday has similarities to todays event, so I'd be cautious at "throwing this one away in search of the next" kind of mentality. Yes, next one does appear like a single system that doesnt cut or transfer, so it should be a "cleaner" event to follow....but it too will not be without further adjustments to what we see today vs where it ends up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: This is what I'm getting at w/ all of the chattin up Thursday, when merely 24 hours ago you looked like 6-9 up there, and now I'd wager 1-3 or 2-4 at best. Upper air pattern for Thursday has similarities to todays event, so I'd be cautious at "throwing this one away in search of the next" kind of mentality. Yes, next one does appear like a single system that doesnt cut or transfer, so it should be a "cleaner" event to follow....but it too will not be without further adjustments to what we see today vs where it ends up. I was going to say and glad you did there is no transfer happening on Thursday and a pretty big H positioned right to our north. I think there are some major differences the best one is, it is not cutting west right now. It really seems like a Miller A that screams to the coast where is important for us. If it is VA Beach or Delmarva for the heavier precip to get up in the state of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Whenever you start seeing storms breaking into two parts, it’s bad news. That started happening with today’s event days ago. New it was a non event for Lancaster County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 And we might as well go all in on Thursday because after we will have a pretty good break of action. So I am all in 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, paweather said: And we might as well go all in on Thursday because after we will have a pretty good break of action. So I am all in 100%. Yea we kinda have to. Might be only moderate or better event out of this loaded pattern lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 HH NAM? We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Pretty tucked in there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Agree that this is the last storm in the current train, not sure we don't have at least the Amtrak Keystone train in March. Enough long range tellies to suggest that we might have an active month - and of course we can score big time then. Regardless, this might be the curtain closer for February. I'm about .8" below my annual average for snowfall. I'll take the over on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Agree that this is the last storm in the current train, not sure we don't have at least the Amtrak Keystone train in March. Enough long range tellies to suggest that we might have an active month - and of course we can score big time then. Regardless, this might be the curtain closer for February. I'm about .8" below my annual average for snowfall. I'll take the over on that. Ha. Take the over. I agree on March lots could happen when the pattern reloads. Just depends on how it reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I think the NAM is going to get there a bit this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just went to ice storm warning from nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Getting there LOL. A sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM versus the model worlds. And heck it could be right this far out. PPV event for 79.99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 The positives I see for Thursday are a better positioned high pressure to the north and the fact that this is coming pretty quickly on the heels of tonight's system...which about the only thing that's gonna be good for other than ice tonight is finally moving the gradient some as we do have some half decent cold that will come in behind. That aforementioned high actually builds overhead before shifting north of us as this next system approached. So I think we can at least get widespread front end snow if this stronger high holds in. That's part of what sunk us with the current one, which I've mentioned a couple times. Problems I see are that the overall mean trough axis is still going to be similarly positioned to where it is now (a bit too far west for my liking) and that's going to present the opportunity for this to track like the current system, potentially sending the surface low up the west side of the apps to an eventual transfer to the coast. Southern tier is pretty vulnerable to mixing in this setup IMO. Looking at mid-level features, even the Euro is a bit left of my liking with the 850mb low (roughly taking that overhead). The GFS and || GFS had a more focused 850mb low that went west and drew a stronger southerly flow and more mix. The stronger surface high to the north is extremely important for front end snow and maybe getting this low pressure under us, although I"m somewhat pessimistic of that happening without at least some surface low reflection carrying up west of the Apps up to at least the Ohio River. Probably don't want this to slow down at all either. The faster on the heels of the current system, the better chance it has at staying under us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: NAM versus the model worlds. And heck it could be right this far out. PPV event for 79.99. Careful though...some other models like the Navgem have an evolution similar to the NAM. Would definitely lean toward the popular globals but there are two camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just went to an ice storm warning as well. Is a half inch of freezing rain realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Careful though...some other models like the Navgem have an evolution similar to the NAM. Would definitely lean toward the popular globals but there are two camps. Yeah but we have the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Yeah but we have the JMA? LOL. I cannot even tell what the JMA is doing in the 24 hour jumps but 850 does look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The positives I see for Thursday are a better positioned high pressure to the north and the fact that this is coming pretty quickly on the heels of tonight's system...which about the only thing that's gonna be good for other than ice tonight is finally moving the gradient some as we do have some half decent cold that will come in behind. That aforementioned high actually builds overhead before shifting north of us as this next system approached. So I think we can at least get widespread front end snow if this stronger high holds in. That's part of what sunk us with the current one, which I've mentioned a couple times. Problems I see are that the overall mean trough axis is still going to be similarly positioned to where it is now (a bit too far west for my liking) and that's going to present the opportunity for this to track like the current system, potentially sending the surface low up the west side of the apps to an eventual transfer to the coast. Southern tier is pretty vulnerable to mixing in this setup IMO. Looking at mid-level features, even the Euro is a bit left of my liking with the 850mb low (roughly taking that overhead). The GFS and || GFS had a more focused 850mb low that went west and drew a stronger southerly flow and more mix. The stronger surface high to the north is extremely important for front end snow and maybe getting this low pressure under us, although I"m somewhat pessimistic of that happening without at least some surface low reflection carrying up west of the Apps up to at least the Ohio River. Probably don't want this to slow down at all either. The faster on the heels of the current system, the better chance it has at staying under us. Let's hope Mag we can keep this under. I didn't think there would be a transfer but It sounds like it is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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