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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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EPS vs OP....Please say EPS is SE.....

Please

:P

 

Edit...just looked and EPS is slightly W of Op for late week.  Still time, and today reeled me back in a bit.  I'll sacrifice Tuedsay for a refresher Thursday...I'm easy like that

 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

PAZ033>036-056>059-063-150900-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0006.210215T2100Z-210216T1800Z/
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-
Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
and Carlisle
346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to two tenths of an inch, with locally greater than a
  quarter of an inch, mainly over the higher terrain.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The best potential for sustained freezing
  rain is Monday night.

 

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Update lol 

Yup lol just saw. It does make sense since there's still time to review more guidance tonight ahead of this. Saw Mount Holly go right to warnings for half their CWA and figured CTP was about to do the same. So watches on a swath of south-central PA for the heightened ice concern (possible areas of .25"+). Some of the central/north central watch counties plus the non watch counties to advisory for more mixing eating into snow totals and likely more of a sleet event over ZR for the mix type. 

Also, I understand the LSV folks kind of tuning this out for the Thursday one but this next one starting well, tomorrow is still going to get everyone in here with at least a fairly high impact advisory level winter storm. 

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3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yup lol just saw. It does make sense since there's still time to review more guidance tonight ahead of this. Saw Mount Holly go right to warnings for half their CWA and figured CTP was about to do the same. So watches on a swath of south-central PA for the heightened ice concern (possible areas of .25"+). Some of the central/north central watch counties plus the non watch counties to advisory for more mixing eating into snow totals and likely more of a sleet event over ZR for the mix type. 

Also, I understand the LSV folks kind of tuning this out for the Thursday one but this next one starting well, tomorrow is still going to get everyone in here with at least a fairly high impact advisory level winter storm. 

You are right, with all of the cold air around, many of us could be in store for major icing tomorrow pm into Tuesday. 

Hopefully we are chiseling out of the ice on Tuesday as we are staring down an approaching  major snow to ice event on Thursday.

Busy week ahead!

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20 minutes ago, Ruin said:

man nws in our area are jokes they love to downplay storms so much you see the hate they have for winter storms. I just dont know lol.

I actually think some of the NWS Met's relish winter storms and their long AFD's show it albeit a pain when they copy and paste the AFD from period to period.  Lots of non forecasters read those AFD's.  They are no longer the domain of weather heads.   I usually provide them myself when sending forecasts, 

 

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

You are right, with all of the cold air around, many of us could be in store for major icing tomorrow pm into Tuesday. 

Hopefully we are chiseling out of the ice on Tuesday as we are staring down an approaching  major snow to ice event on Thursday.

Busy week ahead!

Fun winter week! 

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Speaking of AFD updates haha.

Quote
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 pm update... Overall, a northwestward shift in the cyclone
track for the early week winter storm has continued with today`s
model runs. The consequences for this across Central PA are
somewhat less snowfall, but a higher freezing rain risk for
areas near and just south of I-78 and US-22.

A shot of mostly light snow still looks to move across the
Commonwealth Monday morning to early afternoon, but with the
bulk of the steadier/heavier precipitation holding off until
later in the day and at night. Strong low to mid-level jets will
bring in much deeper moisture tomorrow night, along with
significant warming above the boundary layer. Closer to the
PA/NY border, thermal profiles still support mostly snow, with
perhaps a brief wintry mix in the pre-dawn early Tuesday. Thus,
we felt comfortable with a Winter Storm Warning for the northern
tier, with generally 6-9" of snow foreseen. Farther south,
initial snow will go over to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing
rain, with a likely change over to rain for a time in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

The primary uncertainties involve sleet vs. freezing rain and
how much ice accretion can thus take place over some of our
southern counties. At this time, we felt the course of least
regret was to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the potential for
localized ice accretions GTE 0.25" from the Laurel Highlands,
northeast to just north of Harrisburg, then over towards the
southern Poconos (Lebanon and Schuylkill counties). A strong
ageostrophic northerly flow and fairly cold air perched just to
our north and northeast will make it difficult for surface
readings to go above freezing in some locales across the Watch
area.

For all unmentioned locations, a Winter Weather Advisory seems
in order, for a general 2-6" of snow, along with a
sleet/freezing rain mix for a time Monday night.

Steadier precipitation should begin to wind down from southwest
to northeast, as a mid-level dry slot rotates overhead towards
daybreak Tuesday.

 

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If you look at the ice hazard maps for the entire state (not just the CWA), Carbon County gets .25 to .50" of ice while Schuylkill gets .10 to .20". I guess the ice storm will stop right at the county line, which is how it's depicted on the map...lol

 

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3 hours ago, Voyager said:

If you look at the ice hazard maps for the entire state (not just the CWA), Carbon County gets .25 to .50" of ice while Schuylkill gets .10 to .20". I guess the ice storm will stop right at the county line, which is how it's depicted on the map...lol

 

yeah i never understood that stupid reasoning. 

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Agreed. It seems like a lot of the meso's are putting out some crazy ice accretions. Much higher than the NWS has. But, in my experience, the ice is usually far less than even what the NWS forecasts for me. It seems like we almost always get to a 33 surface temp quicker than indicated.

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7 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Agreed. It seems like a lot of the meso's are putting out some crazy ice accretions. Much higher than the NWS has. But, in my experience, the ice is usually far less than even what the NWS forecasts for me. It seems like we almost always get to a 33 surface temp quicker than indicated.

i probably should have posted his tweet he had for this. apparently he's using a algorithm that more accurately predicts how much ice will fall compared to what the models are actually showing so what i posted is actually the lower end of what the hrrr was showing. i do agree ice is really hard to forecast and we always usually get much less

 

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1 hour ago, basehore said:

Wow this non stop nw sprint is getting unreal.  Hopefully the late night run stops it.  If not this could be a Detroit special and we move on to Thursday looking for white gold and not ice.  

Yea it's not going to get that far over, it's too cold there lol.

However, pretty much all guidance has moved to running this surface low up the west side of the Apps basically up to SW PA before it shows any signs of jumping to the coast. That's not going to cut it, we need this to stay under PA. Really the only difference this makes for central PA is it just makes thing's icier (more freezing rain) since there is enough of a CAD setup to hang in surface temps near or below freezing over all the area for a good portion of the event before maybe spiking above freezing into the LSV below the turnpike right at the end. This is going to affect the northern tier's snow accumulation's some as the mixing is likely going to drive pretty far into northern PA now with a track like that. Still should be a half decent snowfall up there though. A stripe somewhere in the central counties is probably going to see a decent sleet accumulation  (1-2") where somewhat deeper cold likes to stay anchored. The silver lining? The majority of the main wave of precip associated with the surface low Monday night is out of the area in about 10hrs or so. Then we can focus in on the next incoming mess Thursday. 

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I'm focusing on Thursday's storm right now...and it's looking quite promising that many of us have a significant snowfall with 6-12" for almost all of our subforum.  For this snow map, all the snow amounts on an arc from Altoona to State College to Williamsport to Scranton running south and east are all from the Thursday storm.  It only goes over to rain for a few hours at the end early Friday when temps crawl up into the mid 30's.  Also, looking at Tuesday's storm, any ice accumulations we see are all going to melt as temps shoot up into the low to mid 40's for a few hours Tuesday afternoon before retreating back down below freezing.  Other good news is that temps are only in the low 20's during all of the snow portion of the storm and then begin to rise as the transition to sleet, freezing rain and finally to rain takes place overnight into Friday morning.  Temps Friday only peak in the mid 30's before crashing back down below freezing later Friday and then remain below freezing continuously through to Monday afternoon.  I'm letting myself get "a little excited" for this one for now.

snku_acc.us_state_pa.png

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Can't help but marvel at the craziness of this weather event down in Texas. San Antonio socked in with heavy snow and FOURTEEN DEGREES. Brownsville, TX sitting colder than MDT right now at 32ºF and reporting light snow. The Brownsville NWS was saying in their discussion their ASOS sites aren't even equipped with freezing rain sensors bc well, guess that stuff never happens down there lol. 

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