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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

GFS likes the longer duration event lasting into Friday but is weaker with the front end thump and keeps the heaviest rates south of the border.  Just generally drier overall.  The Rgem has been on the drier side as well, relatively speaking of course.  But still, hmmmmmm

That is the GFS always drier and more realistic than the NAM. But you take the averages and it is still about where we were yesterday 4-8" 5-10". My greed is to get anything now out of the coastal and keep it snowing into Friday albeit even if it is light. 

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CMC was taint free for us, and has Chesco adn pts east taintin.

As we get closer and BY forecasts start to become increasingly more important......

 

a true :weenie: must pull for the model that shows him/her what they want to see, and I approve of the CMC.  Overall it was a step back from 0z in qpf, but still has me white not wet.  

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

CMC was taint free for us, and has Chesco adn pts east taintin.

As we get closer and BY forecasts start to become increasingly more important......

 

a true :weenie: must pull for the model that shows him/her what they want to see, and I approve of the CMC.  Overall it was a step back from 0z in qpf, but still has me white not wet.  

It is like a double edge sword where is the north trend (then probably mix). 

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sauss, you were right.

 
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --

000 FXUS61 KCTP 171454 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 954 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and cold today with increasing clouds into tonight. A winter storm will bring widespread accumulating snow Thursday through Thursday night with 6 inches or more possible over the southeast half of the area. Leftover snow showers Friday will fade into the weekend with below normal temperatures. A fast moving system may bring another round of snow Sunday night into Monday. Behind this early week system, the pattern through the end of February looks less stormy with a temperature outlook that tilts the odds toward near to above average readings. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

A cold morning with a good deal of welcome sunshine in many areas. Surface high building into the Keystone State ensures fair and cold conditions today. Forecast highs in the low 20s over the Alleghenies to around 30 degrees in the lower Susq. Valley will be a solid 10 to 15 degrees below normal with a 24hr MaxT change of similar magnitude. Warm advection aloft ahead of deepening mid/upper trough over the Plains should result in increasing clouds this evening into tonight.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

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3 minutes ago, FHS said:

That,s pretty interesting.  We where just getting the wheels turning or already in a very strong la Nina by jan 2011 and solor activity was just ramping up its climb to maxims . Thats just two of the similarities i can think of between this winter and 2011.

FHS thoughts on the impeding snowstorm? 

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