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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:


Part of the problem is the amount of models we have. We suffer from a gluttony of data, but a dearth of wisdom


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3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

To read each model correctly we would need a bounty of verification scores for each model that is fairly localized. And it seems that info is all behind a noaa login. I’ve spent hours looking and it appears I cannot get access to the data I want because I’m not a noaa employee.


.

I know but you would think technology would be better, we are in 2021. Being this hobby for years it is really the same every year with models. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

We probably could do much better seeing one model run per day up until 48 hours then 2 a day.  So many forecasts are wrong by using model watching...myself included. 

It would certainly eliminate some of the back and forth nature of this hobby.  The highs and lows come at you quick when you live and die by each model run.

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

As Eric says "folks...it's Meteorology, not Modelology" 

True but not reality anymore unless we take away the drugs.  The AFD's themselves are littered with model references now.  20-30 years ago a model was rarely mentioned but now the AFD's are as much a model run down vs. meteorology.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

True but not reality anymore unless we take away the drugs.  The AFD's themselves are littered with model references now.  20-30 years ago a model as rarely mentioned but now the AFD's are much a model run down vs. meteorology.

 

 

This is a great point.  So often now a significant portion of the AFDs is just a rundown of the latest model guidance.  Don't get me wrong, I still like reading them and enjoy the technical aspects but their deference to modelology is much more noticeable these days.

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Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

This is a great point.  So often now a significant portion of the AFDs is just a rundown of the latest model guidance.  Don't get me wrong, I still like reading them and enjoy the technical aspects but their deference to modelology is much more noticeable these days.

Yes it is. It has been for years now. Same with on air weather folks (except for Allweather). 

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2 minutes ago, paweather said:

and I 100% agree with that but what is causing the trends in models today? I know he doesn't really explain it other than twitter posts but what is it. 

For most of this season storms have been modeled too high with QPF only to see a reduction in the final 24-48 hours. I think there's a correlation to that being Nina influenced. That's a guess based on my perception, perhaps @MAG5035 could actually provide real analysis. We've been saying for a few days that 10, perhaps 12" was the max for this storm in a few lucky spots - this was never going to be a prolific snow maker. Flow is WAY too progressive to allow for monster totals. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

For most of this season storms have been modeled too high with QPF only to see a reduction in the final 24-48 hours. I think there's a correlation to that being Nina influenced. That's a guess based on my perception, perhaps @MAG5035 could actually provide real analysis. We've been saying for a few days that 10, perhaps 12" was the max for this storm in a few lucky spots - this was never going to be a prolific snow maker. Flow is WAY too progressive to allow for monster totals. 

That's it right there in my amateur mind. Progressive and models don't hone in on that until the 24-48 hour timeframe.   

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A big key to what we're going to see snow wise with this system is what happens right up front late tonight into early tomorrow with that finger of early warm advection snows that develops and where it's placed as that probably will be the best snows ratio wise and could throw a stripe of a few inches right off the bat to whoever gets it.That's really been the name of the game with this system since last week, what it does on the front end... even with it being a much colder system overall than it was looking at that point. 

At any rate, it seemed like a good bit of guidance today (especially the short term and high res stuff) places this early stuff closer to a JST-UNV-IPT line than say a Cumberland to MDT one and then the main surge of precip fills in the rest where it will probably be heavier overall in the southern tier. This is actually most important for that corridor (JST/UNV/IPT/FIG) because this may be a low end advisory or worse without it in the central counties.  I'd wager the folks that gets a good piece of the early stuff and transitions into the main surge without wasting a period of light or non-consequential rates are probably going to be the ones that see the best accumulations for the whole event. And if that actually does end up back as far as that JST-IPT corridor, I'd def be more worried about the implications of eventual mixing in the LSV counties. NAM and related near term guidance is the mixiest still, while generally everything else minimizes the mixing above the mason-dixon line. Still have the same concerns with the 500mb mean trough centered west over the central US as well as the mid-level features west of PA and associated WAA busting 0ºC somewhere in that 850-700 layer in esp the LSV. 

The trend the last couple days has been a bit of a SE shift in the heavy swath and especially an overall toning down on QPF. I think this is basically a 4-8" for all the regulars in here. Clearfield and Williamsport should eventually at least get to 3-4" by the end of this event. Places like AOO/UNV 5-6" and the best chance of a consistent 6"+ swath likely resides closer to the turnpike. Below the turnpike in the southern tier/LSV has the best QPF for widespread 6"+ but that directly depends on if the mixing happens. If it does, I still think everyone gets 3-4". The upper end of this is probably 10".

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

A big key to what we're going to see snow wise with this system is what happens right up front late tonight into early tomorrow with that finger of early warm advection snows that develops and where it's placed as that probably will be the best snows ratio wise and could throw a stripe of a few inches right off the bat to whoever gets it.That's really been the name of the game with this system since last week, what it does on the front end... even with it being a much colder system overall than it was looking at that point. 

At any rate, it seemed like a good bit of guidance today (especially the short term and high res stuff) places this early stuff closer to a JST-UNV-IPT line than say a Cumberland to MDT one and then the main surge of precip fills in the rest where it will probably be heavier overall in the southern tier. This is actually most important for that corridor (JST/UNV/IPT/FIG) because this may be a low end advisory or worse without it in the central counties.  I'd wager the folks that gets a good piece of the early stuff and transitions into the main surge without wasting a period of light or non-consequential rates are probably going to be the ones that see the best accumulations for the whole event. And if that actually does end up back as far as that JST-IPT corridor, I'd def be more worried about the implications of eventual mixing in the LSV counties. NAM and related near term guidance is the mixiest still, while generally everything else minimizes the mixing above the mason-dixon line. Still have the same concerns with the 500mb mean trough centered west over the central US as well as the mid-level features west of PA and associated WAA busting 0ºC somewhere in that 850-700 layer in esp the LSV. 

The trend the last couple days has been a bit of a SE shift in the heavy swath and especially an overall toning down on QPF. I think this is basically a 4-8" for all the regulars in here. Clearfield and Williamsport should eventually at least get to 3-4" by the end of this event. Places like AOO/UNV 5-6" and the best chance of a consistent 6"+ swath likely resides closer to the turnpike. Below the turnpike in the southern tier/LSV has the best QPF for widespread 6"+ but that directly depends on if the mixing happens. If it does, I still think everyone gets 3-4". The upper end of this is probably 10".

Thanks Mag great writeup as always. 

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