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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah the other Hi-res models like the ARW, NMMB, NSSL, etc. are starting to pick up on this as well.  They're quite useful in this regard.  Luckily most of the heaviest precip should fall before any changeover so we should be fine for a potent front-end thump.  Gonna be a fun morning!

HMM...looked a tick colder to me.  Yes, its a thin line as always down here, but thermally I looped both 6/12z and 12 at 700 is slightly better for LSV battleground.  May just be noise and could tick north tonight anyway, but Im ok w/ what it shows verbatim.

6z

6znam3km_T700_neus_38.png

12z

nam3km_T700_neus_32.png

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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

I am wondering now more on the coastal interaction at this point. Overrunning is a given and where we will get our accums. But up this way if we can get the coastal involvement as the 12K suggest we might be looking at double digits in snowfall totals. 

That's the big X-factor at this point.  I like the idea of some coastal interaction, just not sure how impressive it will be.  All of the guidance allowing for it at this point seems to suggest that the wrap-around bands would be very light in nature.  1-2" of additional snow over the course of 12 hours wouldn't be very impactful but it would certainly pretty-up the scene ha.  Lord knows we'll take whatever we can get.

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

That's the big X-factor at this point.  I like the idea of some coastal interaction, just not sure how impressive it will be.  All of the guidance allowing for it at this point seems to suggest that the wrap-around bands would be very light in nature.  1-2" of additional snow over the course of 12 hours wouldn't be very impactful but it would certainly pretty-up the scene ha.  Lord knows we'll take whatever we can get.

A little reminiscent of a few weeks ago with when the storm that "tucked" but the bands became lighter over the two days.  This will not be two days but similar types of snows from any coastal. 

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

HMM...looked a tick colder to me.  Yes, its a thin line as always down here, but thermally I looped both 6/12z and 12 at 700 is slightly better for LSV battleground.  May just be noise and could tick north tonight anyway, but Im ok w/ what it shows verbatim.

6z

6znam3km_T700_neus_38.png

12z

nam3km_T700_neus_32.png

Yeah probably just run to run model noise but a fine line indeed.  Agree with being fine with where we sit and letting the chips fall as they may.  I'm at a low elevation spot here near route 30 and the sleet monster almost always bites me.  Typically, once Lancaster City flips I know I'm toast within ten minutes or so.  Just part of the deal around here more times than not anymore but a boy can hope!

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4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah probably just run to run model noise but a fine line indeed.  Agree with being fine with where we sit and letting the chips fall as they may.  I'm at a low elevation spot here near route 30 and the sleet monster almost always bites me.  Typically, once Lancaster City flips I know I'm toast within ten minutes or so.  Just part of the deal around here more times than not anymore but a boy can hope!

I may have an extra 15 min after your 10 min, as I'm 10 miles north of Lanc city so I get ya.  I know it sounds trivial to parse over but where you and I live, makes a BIG difference.  Our northern/western brethren just dont know how good they have it....lol.

and to add to this, I cant tell you how many times (like currently) that when I drive from Akron to Lancaster (down 222), then get on 283 and head to Etown, you can see how we have snow, and Lanc city loses it, then you see it building back towards Etown.  

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I may have an extra 15 min after your 10 min, as I'm 10 miles north of Lanc city so I get ya.  I know it sounds trivial to parse over but where you and I live, makes a BIG difference.  Our northern/western brethren just dont know how good they have it....lol.

It is a fine line between getting the goods and being too far west.  With that said Cashtown and I have been doing fairly well the last 5-10 years with that battle. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is a fine line between getting the goods and being too far west.  With that said Cashtown and I have been doing fairly well the last 5-10 years with that battle. 

You may think I'm crazy, but sometimes its worse getting rain/zr/sleet.... while you snow.  Sometimes I'd almost rather nothing, than missing out while someone close by "cashes in". 

Mind you thats living all but 5 yrs of my life down here, so I've seen it so many times, I'm used to riding the razors edge, and getting cut just gets old.  Thats all.    

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9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I may have an extra 15 min after your 10 min, as I'm 10 miles north of Lanc city so I get ya.  I know it sounds trivial to parse over but where you and I live, makes a BIG difference.  Our northern/western brethren just dont know how good they have it....lol.

and to add to this, I cant tell you how many times (like currently) that when I drive from Akron to Lancaster (down 222), then get on 283 and head to Etown, you can see how we have snow, and Lanc city loses it, then you see it building back towards Etown.  

I'm 5 miles south of Elizabethtown - I can't tell you how many times the landscape has been whiter in Bear country and then down here in the land of the Tribe. 

In these situations - latitude, and to some extent longitude absolutely matter. 

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Just now, pasnownut said:

You may think I'm crazy, but sometimes its worse getting rain/zr/sleet.... while you snow.  Sometimes I'd almost rather nothing, than missing out while someone close by "cashes in". 

Mind you thats living all but 5 yrs of my life down here, so I've seen it so many times, I'm used to riding the razors edge, and getting cut just gets old.  Thats all.    

LOL on the bolded.  But I totally agree with you.  There have not been many of those MDT and East snow storms lately. 

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CTP is super, super bullish. 

Tonight
Snow, mainly after 3am. Low around 23. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Thursday
Snow. High near 28. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow. Low around 26. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday
Snow likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I may have an extra 15 min after your 10 min, as I'm 10 miles north of Lanc city so I get ya.  I know it sounds trivial to parse over but where you and I live, makes a BIG difference.  Our northern/western brethren just dont know how good they have it....lol.

You aint kiddin.  Although the MA folks would argue they have it worse and they wouldn't be wrong haha.

 

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is a fine line between getting the goods and being too far west.  With that said Cashtown and I have been doing fairly well the last 5-10 years with that battle. 

You guys are in a good spot out there, longitude seems to matter more than latitude more times than not around here and obviously with anything having a coastal element to it.  Not to mention your extra elevation never hurts the cause.  Elevation is everything, so they say, eeeerrrrrr, someone says it, maybe it's just me ha.

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You aint kiddin.  Although the MA folks would argue they have it worse and they wouldn't be wrong haha.

 

You guys are in a good spot out there, longitude seems to matter more than latitude more times than not around here and obviously with anything having a coastal element to it.  Not to mention your extra elevation never hurts the cause.  Elevation is everything, so they say, eeeerrrrrr, someone says it, maybe it's just me ha.

Elevation definitely helps enhance what we get.  

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Crazy reading the last page or 2 how close so many of us are geographically yet experience such different results this time of year.  Whenever covid eases, we should have a gathering.  I can only imagine how different most of us are in person versus how we are perceived on this board.

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1 minute ago, Festus said:

Crazy reading the last page or 2 how close so many of us are geographically yet experience such different results this time of year.  Whenever covid eases, we should have a gathering.  I can only imagine how different most of us are in person versus how we are perceived on this board.

I'm every bit as ugly in person as my pic suggests. 

This has been talked about before, we really should do this. 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

I agree although it does show the 2 part storm nicely. Just not the heavier overrunning rates. 

For me, now I start to focus on mesos and thermal profiles.  700's for GFS was ever so slightly warmer at 24 but better beyond that for LSV.  850s slightly worse for Lanco n east.  I see the normal battlelines shaping up.  Was hoping that wouldnt be the case down here.  

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm every bit as ugly in person as my pic suggests. 

This has been talked about before, we really should do this. 

A lot of you guys are very impressive in terms of weather prediction skills.  And I'd imagine most are self taught which is even more impressive.  I did 2 years of Meteorology at Millersville before switching majors (Barry Walton era - yikes) and we would draw isobars and isotherms by hand (double yikes).  Always interested in weather but some of you really take it to the next level.  And yes, a meeting would be fantastic.

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12 minutes ago, Festus said:

Crazy reading the last page or 2 how close so many of us are geographically yet experience such different results this time of year.  Whenever covid eases, we should have a gathering.  I can only imagine how different most of us are in person versus how we are perceived on this board.

Nope, i'm an asshole in person too

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm every bit as ugly in person as my pic suggests. 

This has been talked about before, we really should do this. 

we have, for years. need to pull the trigger on this. And @pasnownut is buying

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Just now, paweather said:

12-18HR storm on the GFS I'll take that. 

I think HGB/Hershey/Lebanon are in the catbird seat for this event.

IF I can find a way to not taint....I'd win, but I'm not confident whatsoever.  I'm in the game, so its all good.

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