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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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22 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

sauss, you were right.


 
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --

000 FXUS61 KCTP 171454 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 954 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and cold today with increasing clouds into tonight. A winter storm will bring widespread accumulating snow Thursday through Thursday night with 6 inches or more possible over the southeast half of the area. Leftover snow showers Friday will fade into the weekend with below normal temperatures. A fast moving system may bring another round of snow Sunday night into Monday. Behind this early week system, the pattern through the end of February looks less stormy with a temperature outlook that tilts the odds toward near to above average readings. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

A cold morning with a good deal of welcome sunshine in many areas. Surface high building into the Keystone State ensures fair and cold conditions today. Forecast highs in the low 20s over the Alleghenies to around 30 degrees in the lower Susq. Valley will be a solid 10 to 15 degrees below normal with a 24hr MaxT change of similar magnitude. Warm advection aloft ahead of deepening mid/upper trough over the Plains should result in increasing clouds this evening into tonight.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

well, i started to wonder. Looked like the sun was trying to peak through. But ive been cold since 430 :thumbsdown:

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1 hour ago, Festus said:

Crazy reading the last page or 2 how close so many of us are geographically yet experience such different results this time of year.  Whenever covid eases, we should have a gathering.  I can only imagine how different most of us are in person versus how we are perceived on this board.

That would be fun!  I'm 5 miles WNW of Etown right inside Dauphin County

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I'll be honest and I don't want to poo poo on the party which is why my posts have been few and far between today...

Since Sunday, I have felt exceptionally good AND confident about this storm.

My faith in this storm is wavering big time today for 2 reasons: overall less QPF being modeled, and more importantly, mixing issues. 

Someone talk me back from the precipice. First one to alleviate my fear gets a free brewskie. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll be honest and I don't want to poo poo on the party which is why my posts have been few and far between today...

Since Sunday, I have felt exceptionally good AND confident about this storm.

My faith in this storm is wavering big time today for 2 reasons: overall less QPF being modeled, and more importantly, mixing issues. 

Someone talk me back from the precipice. First one to alleviate my fear gets a free brewskie. 

(Once again), I would rather be where you are than where I am :P

Expect the least and hope for the best.  At this point, I just want things to be a mess outside.  A few inches of fresh white followed by sleet, I can live with.

The key difference here vs. the super-frustrating storm from a few weeks ago is that once the snow is finished, you can be at peace knowing it's just about done.  That was sheer, unadulterated agony watching everyone switch back to snow with that storm while I kept pinging.

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll be honest and I don't want to poo poo on the party which is why my posts have been few and far between today...

Since Sunday, I have felt exceptionally good AND confident about this storm.

My faith in this storm is wavering big time today for 2 reasons: overall less QPF being modeled, and more importantly, mixing issues. 

Someone talk me back from the precipice. First one to alleviate my fear gets a free brewskie. 

Easy. The world will continue to spin no matter what happens. 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll be honest and I don't want to poo poo on the party which is why my posts have been few and far between today...

Since Sunday, I have felt exceptionally good AND confident about this storm.

My faith in this storm is wavering big time today for 2 reasons: overall less QPF being modeled, and more importantly, mixing issues. 

Someone talk me back from the precipice. First one to alleviate my fear gets a free brewskie. 

I would love to alleviate your concerns but I'm having some of the same worries myself.  Let's just put it this way, we should be in for a nice thump of snow sometime between roughly 7am-Noon before we have to even consider worrying about mixing, or at least that's the hope ha.  Yes the heaviest rates may remain below the border but we should still be in for some nice amounts.  Just enjoy whatever comes during the morning and the rest is gravy.  The weather gods will have the final say, as they always do.

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15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I would love to alleviate your concerns but I'm having some of the same worries myself.  Let's just put it this way, we should be in for a nice thump of snow sometime between roughly 7am-Noon before we have to even consider worrying about mixing, or at least that's the hope ha.  Yes the heaviest rates may remain below the border but we should still be in for some nice amounts.  Just enjoy whatever comes during the morning and the rest is gravy.  The weather gods will have the final say, as they always do.

It's fascinating how we allow thoughts to cloud our perspective - there hasn't been a dramatic shift in guidance and I was never expecting anything more than what guidance suggests today. I said early on that 3-6" was my first call and I'm sticking with it. I think sometimes seeing map after map that shows amounts that double that..."distract" me, or influence my judgement, I really need to tune those out even more. 

To me, this is a 3-6" snowfall for Lanco with significant ice to follow and I'm sticking with it. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

18 Hr, high still over NY.  Cad signal down the coast.  First flakes flying in Central PA with that finger out in front of the full WAA.   24 Hr the high has weakened but moderate snow now over spreading southern PA. 850's still in Central VA

Thanks for doing this!  But also if you could make the run be awesome and describe with a “BOOM” or shocked emoji...

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