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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

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5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@MAG5035 any chance we risk suppression on Thursday? The boundary seems to be shifting south each day, and we're still 4 days out.

I'm not too concerned about suppression currently. It's become apparent that the storm track this upcoming week is going to keep us near or in the crosshairs of several waves rather than a complete overwhelming of arctic air via dumping the PV into the east. We have an eastern ridge trying to pop up against this blocking pattern and hyper negative NAO/AO...elongating the PV and providing this gradient pattern with alot of cold air availability. Could be the MJO trying to influence some as it has and will continue to be mired in Phase 6 and now 7. Usually those phases strongly correlate to eastern ridging JFM (especially 6 but 7 reflects it too). Other than the PNA starting fairly negative, MJO is really the only teleconnection flying in the face of the majority of them being pretty supportive this week (-EPO/-WPO). We have such an established blocking pattern up top that instead of what could have been a period of warm weather, we instead have a battleground for delivering potentially more decent snow events. The exchange in all that appears to be not having straight up frigid weather. So god forbid it might not be -15 to -20ºF lol, but we're going to have multiple chances for wintry weather. Just have to nail down the swaths, and it's probably going to vary favoring different parts of the region and perhaps introducing p-type issues in some instances.   

I would be surprised if that PV doesn't directly get swung through at some point within the next couple weeks though. I feel like when this overall pattern does start to break down/change/etc (and it will eventually) that all this cold that has gotten to our side of the pole is going to get moved around. And typically, such a thing likes to happen on the heels of a major amplification and storm system. 

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10 hours ago, daxx said:

Oh my...bitter cold is fun for a little, but boring unless you live near the Great Lakes. Give me an active pattern with cold nearby any day. 

actually I love about of week of really cold why you may ask? It kills all the nasty bugs and we have less of them in the summer and overall I miss cold days as a grown up get under a blanket toasty with hot coco or some thicc soup like broc and cheddar or beef stew 

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The thing i like best about the cold is it makes my right hand numb but feels warm when I play with it.

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Busy tracking week is ahead of us!

A chance of light snow tomorrow, then Wednesday night into Thursday, then possibly again on Valentine’s Day.

Here are the 6z GFS & ICON through Friday night.

 

E03CA8A6-0869-4F58-8502-1C5921394BB8.png

B587C6F2-0F27-4BBB-96EB-3D42225E9061.png

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The 3 major 0z ensembles all have an amazing 15 to 16 days ahead of us!

It is great to see the agreement & the consistent incredible amounts that these ensembles have been showing for the last few days!

7A132D9B-537C-4DEC-9B91-D9CDA63835AB.png

25A80B28-D421-4D53-8724-4AD9D41C3A32.png

AEB542AE-1D6F-426F-A23A-E47CAAD87719.png

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13 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Thanks, Blizz. 

P.S.  Someone needs to come into this thread and do some house cleaning.  Geez.

I don't think anyone in our subforum has moderator power, so I guess the best that can be done is to report it.

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55 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Thanks, Blizz. 

P.S.  Someone needs to come into this thread and do some house cleaning.  Geez.

 

40 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I don't think anyone in our subforum has moderator power, so I guess the best that can be done is to report it.

I must have missed it.

 

Seems like our chances are lined up. so, so much different then last year

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49 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

 

I must have missed it.

 

Seems like our chances are lined up. so, so much different then last year

Thinking the LSV may be on sideline for tomorrows deal.  Hoping we get the goods on Thursday though.  Looking good for lower 1/2 of Pa for that one.

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep, agreed 100% with both assertions.

Meso's say we can smell it tomorrow, gonna b close.  Still enough time for subtle shifts in a good or bad direction.  I mean the difference in 20 miles is the difference between 0-4" verbatim.  lol

wrf-arw_asnow_neus_48.png

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Wow...admittedly, I haven't paid attention to tomorrow at all...

Unfortunately that was last night's 0Z Run.  Here is the 12Z.  It moved the heavy axis over 100 miles to the north.  Congrats @Wmsptwx

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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20 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Unfortunately that was last night's 0Z Run.  Here is the 12Z.  It moved the heavy axis over 100 miles to the north.  Congrats @Wmsptwx

snku_acc.us_ne.png

yeah 12z's arent helping the LSV for tomrrow.  We'll cheer on our CTP brethren and wait for thursday.  More wiggle room IMO for that one to adjust north and put us in the goods.

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and fwiw, I dont really know how threats 2 and 3 work out, but fun to look at (for 1 model run anyway).  Takeaway is that opps a plenty en route...

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45 minutes ago, canderson said:

Those back to back GFS storms would be illegal even in Berlin. 

They’d be crowd pleasers for sure. 

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4 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Looks like everyone is going to get some snow this week looking at these model runs.

 

 

 

Ya can’t shovel potential but that’s a shit ton of it verbatim.
 

Now if we can even get 50% of it it would be a great period. 
 

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16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Ya can’t shovel potential but that’s a shit ton of it verbatim.
 

Now if we can even get 50% of it it would be a great period. 
 

I'm not sure what to think about this week looking at the 12z runs today including the EURO just now for the Thursday/Friday system looks like a convoluted mess to our south.

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

EXACTLY my fear from yesterday.

You did bring that up, good call. This cold of arctic air tends to suppress and make less amplifying of strong storms.

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18 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

You did bring that up, good call. This cold of arctic air tends to suppress and make less amplifying of strong storms.

It is a double edge sword especially for us in the south. We need the cold but your right it can be a problem to produce significant storms in our region. I don't know plenty of time yet I was really looking at the evolution of the storm on the EURO just seems odd to me. 

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39 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

You did bring that up, good call. This cold of arctic air tends to suppress and make less amplifying of strong storms.

........Except for tomorrow’s event that just “ticked” north on most mesos. 

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