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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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13 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Thanks, Blizz. 

P.S.  Someone needs to come into this thread and do some house cleaning.  Geez.

I don't think anyone in our subforum has moderator power, so I guess the best that can be done is to report it.

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55 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Thanks, Blizz. 

P.S.  Someone needs to come into this thread and do some house cleaning.  Geez.

 

40 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I don't think anyone in our subforum has moderator power, so I guess the best that can be done is to report it.

I must have missed it.

 

Seems like our chances are lined up. so, so much different then last year

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49 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

 

I must have missed it.

 

Seems like our chances are lined up. so, so much different then last year

Thinking the LSV may be on sideline for tomorrows deal.  Hoping we get the goods on Thursday though.  Looking good for lower 1/2 of Pa for that one.

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep, agreed 100% with both assertions.

Meso's say we can smell it tomorrow, gonna b close.  Still enough time for subtle shifts in a good or bad direction.  I mean the difference in 20 miles is the difference between 0-4" verbatim.  lol

wrf-arw_asnow_neus_48.png

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20 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Unfortunately that was last night's 0Z Run.  Here is the 12Z.  It moved the heavy axis over 100 miles to the north.  Congrats @Wmsptwx

snku_acc.us_ne.png

yeah 12z's arent helping the LSV for tomrrow.  We'll cheer on our CTP brethren and wait for thursday.  More wiggle room IMO for that one to adjust north and put us in the goods.

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4 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Looks like everyone is going to get some snow this week looking at these model runs.

 

 

 

Ya can’t shovel potential but that’s a shit ton of it verbatim.
 

Now if we can even get 50% of it it would be a great period. 
 

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16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Ya can’t shovel potential but that’s a shit ton of it verbatim.
 

Now if we can even get 50% of it it would be a great period. 
 

I'm not sure what to think about this week looking at the 12z runs today including the EURO just now for the Thursday/Friday system looks like a convoluted mess to our south.

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18 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

You did bring that up, good call. This cold of arctic air tends to suppress and make less amplifying of strong storms.

It is a double edge sword especially for us in the south. We need the cold but your right it can be a problem to produce significant storms in our region. I don't know plenty of time yet I was really looking at the evolution of the storm on the EURO just seems odd to me. 

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19 minutes ago, paweather said:

It is a double edge sword especially for us in the south. We need the cold but your right it can be a problem to produce significant storms in our region. I don't know plenty of time yet I was really looking at the evolution of the storm on the EURO just seems odd to me. 

These overrunning events are notorious for north adjustments.   I think as it’s modeled now is perfect for us, then to watch it slip away north the last 48 hours 

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34 minutes ago, paweather said:

It is a double edge sword especially for us in the south. We need the cold but your right it can be a problem to produce significant storms in our region. I don't know plenty of time yet I was really looking at the evolution of the storm on the EURO just seems odd to me. 

This week really hasn't been about getting the big storm, but chances at more moderate snow events. We're running a pattern on a gradient between alot of arctic air and some attempted eastern ridging.. pretty much a zonal pattern alignment. We don't have the amplification for a big storm (yet), but we have an active storm track with multiple waves tracking the gradient. I made a more detailed post about this last night at the top of the previous page. 

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20 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

These overrunning events are notorious for north adjustments.   I think as it’s modeled now is perfect for us, then to watch it slip away north the last 48 hours 

Yea lol, everyone all worried about stuff getting suppressed this week. Look at where tonight's swath of snow is going. Plus, should throw out the friendly reminder of where guidance had yesterday's storm during that 72-84hrs lead time. 

146419838_3907427495974975_1460673535950394078_o.thumb.png.24205296a4ca511b4cd5354076dba5a3.png

146564527_3907427932641598_492891179623572478_o.thumb.png.5a589a82b2a9cf2751bcdc118af10b50.png

 

 

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Not too bad for a zone forecast:

Tonight
Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 22. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tuesday
Rain and snow before 2pm, then a slight chance of snow between 2pm and 4pm. High near 39. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Northwest wind around 6 mph.
Wednesday
A slight chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday
A chance of snow before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17.
Saturday
A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 13.
Washington's Birthday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 27.
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18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea lol, everyone all worried about stuff getting suppressed this week. Look at where tonight's swath of snow is going. Plus, should throw out the friendly reminder of where guidance had yesterday's storm during that 72-84hrs lead time. 

146419838_3907427495974975_1460673535950394078_o.thumb.png.24205296a4ca511b4cd5354076dba5a3.png

146564527_3907427932641598_492891179623572478_o.thumb.png.5a589a82b2a9cf2751bcdc118af10b50.png

 

 

Peeps need to remember that cold of late is often  over modeled, and with that in mind there is usually a typical correction north wrt storm trajectories.
 

It’s been a seasonal tendency for a while now. 

I dont “fret” over any cold that shows on the models. I just want it to show which means it’s going to be around. 

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