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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Still my first call and I'm at work, so I'll do a fine tooth comb and have a Final Call later today. Might make some adjustments. But in either case, this is a storm where banding will be key. You get a few good waves and 4" is easy money for my PA brethren :)

Ty Millville for putting in the extra effort for us back here. Always loved reading your thoughts on what was happening. I hope you end up in one of your choices for forecast area.

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Here was last night's 0z HREF 24hr snowfall, which is short range ensemble guidance that NWS factors pretty heavily into their snow maps, and you can see why CTP opted for watches in Adams, York, Lancaster. Thought this was the 12z run but good thing I double checked bc it hasn't run 12z yet on the SPC site. Would imagine whatever the 12z shows will factor into whether they opt for warnings in the watch area. 

1949076007_ScreenShot2021-02-06at11_39_46AM.thumb.png.a252a4718e422881e118c69ff559eeae.png

Considering the full suite of guidance, they're pretty locked down on the general location of the best swath of snow but there does still seem to be quite a divide in guidance though when it comes to amounts of said swath . Looking at the 12z GFS and GEFS, it's barely an advisory event in the watch counties and a general 1-2 in the rest of the Sus Valley, RGEM same way although that particular model has generally been SE the whole time on the lead up. 06z Euro/EPS supports Sus Valley wide advisory event but borderline at best on upgrading the watches to warnings. It's the short range guidance like the NAM/SREF/HREF that have been robust on warning totals and the 09z SREFs are most robust on NW extent with solid advisory amounts all the way back past I-99. So all things considered, I think what CTP currently has out snow-map wise is pretty good representation right now with location of the swath of best snows and perhaps tempered expectations on the top end accumulation wise. 

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I just took a look at some current conditions and have a few thoughts on the event tomorrow.

Currently around noon, temps are in the low 20s in northwest PA with dew points in the single digits. Currently in Baltimore/DC area, temps are  in the mid to high 40s with dew points in the 20s. In the LSV, temps are in the low 40’s with few points in the low 20’s.

I think that the storm will ride up along the thermal boundary. The radar is blossoming nicely in the south east back towards Mississippi & Alabama and is already streaming towards the northeast.

I think the LSV is in a good spot for a solid 3 to 5 inches, with a few lucky spots (read Cashtown...) getting a chance at 6 inches of snow by the end of tomorrow.

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14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I just took a look at some current conditions and have a few thoughts on the event tomorrow.

Currently around noon, temps are in the low 20s in northwest PA with dew points in the single digits. Currently in Baltimore/DC area, temps are  in the mid to high 40s with dew points in the 20s. In the LSV, temps are in the low 40’s with few points in the low 20’s.

I think that the storm will ride up along the thermal boundary. The radar is blossoming nicely in the south east back towards Mississippi & Alabama and is already streaming towards the northeast.

I think the LSV is in a good spot for a solid 3 to 5 inches, with a few lucky spots (read Cashtown...) getting a chance at 6 inches of snow by the end of tomorrow.

I'm not sure...I really hope you're right, but the 12z suite doesn't suggest those amounts outside of the NAM and SREFS. 

I do like your assertion on temps and dews - I'm shocked with how warm it is today. I'm losing snowpack much quicker today than I did yesterday. Grass is popping in sunny areas quickly today. Bottom line - we should be pretty close to the gradient. 

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33 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

CTP goes with advisory 3-5 for watched counties and 2-4 holds for others that already had advisory

I have more of a snow tv feeling this far south though could get a good start accumulating before daybreak.   Like daxx just mentioned, round one of a potentially good stretch. (Or round 2 I guess if you could 6 days ago)

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16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Holy "Models cancelled the snow storm".  Trends looked so good (at least QPF I always thought we had an issue with ground temps) I am fairly surprised. 

Stunned...even though I said 1-3" yesterday I really thought in truth this puppy was going to wind up and get us pretty good.

Meh. 

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