Gosnow

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    LANS

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  1. I think CTP summed up all our options pretty well this coming weekend. Basically a tossup. Let us hope we can get the most favorable outcome for us and perhaps as mentioned below a negative NAO? We can only hope. There is considerable uncertainty with next weekend`s weather. The GFS and GEFS have been consistent for the last several runs with bringing a coastal storm up the East Coast Saturday- Monday. Model runs have varied significantly in precip type and location with outcomes ranging from widespread snow to all rain. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has been more consistent in keeping the surface low south and/or east of the Commonwealth with basically no storm impacts whatsoever. The ECMWF instead favors a deeper low pressure system over Canada, which would bring prevailing southwesterly winds and dry conditions to the Middle Atlantic region through the weekend. About all we can do at this point is mention the possibility of *something* happening next weekend, and as such, have brought in marginal PoPs to match WPC guidance and lean toward GFS/GEFS solutions. It is worth noting that the long range guidance from the GFS shows the NAO dipping negative at the end of January... something that has not happened since the end of November 2019.
  2. We believe in inclusion of all colors and bands for those who want to those who want not.
  3. Mid atlantic forum getting excited for latter half of jan and beyond. And usually what they get the southern half and hopefully the entire area gets. Would be nice to move that ridge in the pacific over a bit east to allow us to be on the colder side of the boundary with a storm track se of us.
  4. Beautiful winter day in Lititz PA. Looks like maybe we end up on the right side of the boundary later in the month hopefully. But will take what we can get.
  5. Graupeling here in lititz. Little bit laying on deck and grass. Very cool.
  6. Anything on the long range to look forward to? It was mentioned perhaps one more hurrah in late March or is that off the table?
  7. Driving from granville to lititz snow all the way. Roads did not cave until I hit 322 east. Snowing moderately here in Lititz.
  8. All nice and white in Lancaster county. Prob around 1.5 to 2 in. Gotta love little storms that can over deliver.
  9. Mr Horst saying March could be the snowiest month. Perhaps the new Feb http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html Here is to tomorrows start. March 1st. Personally I think this first one will over perform and we see 3 to 4 in Lanco tomorrow.
  10. 12z gfs looking mighty interesting for sunday Monday now. What a difference a day makes. Of course until the next model run.
  11. On wgal tonight Joe Calhoun normally pretty conservative was saying that the ingredients were coming together for a storm if not next weekend then the start of the week after. Could be he is referring to the storm showing up in the long range. If as everyone has been saying everything is coming together perhaps it is our time. I think someone said March could be the new February.
  12. I think this will be good test of the models seeming to show the CAD staying strongeracoss all levels than what we have seen in the past. How many times have models seem to bring in the warmth faster than what we have experienced?
  13. 6pm gfs gives us hope for early next week although it seems that the initial push of snow is now south in Virginia and then afterwards up our way. At least it is something to hold hope out for.