Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,895
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Pszemo
    Newest Member
    Pszemo
    Joined

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Crazy, since I live about 15 mins. from E-Town. LOL. Thunderstorm type of activity. 

 

Yeah I got excited when I saw some of the posts about this little tongue of moisture....but it went poof right over my head i guess...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Greensnow said:

Pack continues to build up here. Looks like 3" measured with snow still falling.

Did not have the melt that the south of 80 crowd had at the end of last week. Being cloudy and below freezing every day is bad for mental health but great for keeping snow on the ground! :unsure:

Nice.  Congrats.  Hope you like snow enough to brighten your spirits.   :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, paweather said:

Just depends on what wave you or Training Time is talking about LOL. 

 

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

We know.  IMO its not about whos right and whos wrong (which sometimes seems that's whats going on in here).  Except for a couple red taggers (who also are faced w/ the same challenges...but they get paid for it), we are all a bunch of weenies throwing our amateur opinions out there to discuss something we enjoy.  Some of us try to back it up w/some logic....right or wrong.  That's the fun of it (for me anyway).  We all learn from one another, and that's the fun of the convo on a weather discussion board...notsomuch whos right and whos wrong.  

Of course its a possibility and its great to bring up any points to discuss because as amateurs....thats what we are here to do.  I think he knows that. 

Beyond Thursday, nooners are spilt between N and S, so noone really knows whos right and whos wrong, but as I said earlier, you need to blend knowledge/tendencies/logic and not just look at a map and say...aint happnenin.  Hope that makes sense and doesnt come off snooty, but some of us put time and effort into our reasoning cause thats the fun for many here.   

I'm less than an amateur - admittedly, beyond looking at models faithfully, I then resort to my climo and intuition. To me, several days ago when the maps were really pretty for the Wednesday PM - Friday deal, my concern was the precip would be suppressed and weaker simply because we didn't have a strong vort attacking it. If something is weak and coming in waves, it's much easier for the cold press to shred, weaken, suppress. And I was only throwing out a question/caution because I've seen it happen a "few" times over the years. Doesn't mean it won't snow, I was just expressing/asking something that looked like a red flag to me. 

I was convinced that this past Sunday would be far less than the 4-7" that models and others were painting. I ended up with less than 2" of slop. I was convinced a couple of weeks ago that a storm that was modeled and forecasted to give me 3-5" would bust, and I got nada. Honestly, Nut, you've said this many times - in truth, it's easy to say it won't snow because history is definitely on the side of those who say it won't, but I really try to limit my questions/concerns to situations that warrant them. That usually works out really well for me. But again - it's not really super scientific - it's more of an understanding of history, climo, and how systems have interacted with each other in the past.

This site is a GREAT place to learn. I have my met textbooks on my bookshelf that I still read, but that info pales to what one can learn here.

I enjoy it, guys. :)  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I'm less than an amateur - admittedly, beyond looking at models faithfully, I then resort to my climo and intuition. To me, several days ago when the maps were really pretty for the Wednesday PM - Friday deal, my concern was the precip would be suppressed and weaker simply because we didn't have a strong vort attacking it. If something is weak and coming in waves, it's much easier for the cold press to shred, weaken, suppress. And I was only throwing out a question/caution because I've seen it happen a "few" times over the years. Doesn't mean it won't snow, I was just expressing/asking something that looked like a red flag to me. 

I was convinced that Sunday would be far less than the 4-7" that models and others were painting. I ended up with less than 2" of slop. I was convinced a couple of weeks ago that a storm that was modeled and forecasted to give me 3-5" would bust, and I got nada. Honestly, Nut, you've said this many times - in truth, it's easy to say it won't snow because history is definitely on the side of those who say it won't, but I really try to limit my questions/concerns to situations that warrant them. That usually works out really well for me. But again - it's not really super scientific - it's more of an understanding of history, climo, and how systems have interacted with each other in the past.

This site is a GREAT place to learn. I have my met textbooks on my bookshelf that I still read, but that info pales to what one can learn here.

I enjoy it, guys. :)  

Great post. And totally agree, perfect place to bounce ideas off one another. Hoping Thursday and Friday deal sneaks you guys some snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Greensnow said:

Pack continues to build up here. Looks like 3" measured with snow still falling.

Did not have the melt that the south of 80 crowd had at the end of last week. Being cloudy and below freezing every day is bad for mental health but great for keeping snow on the ground! :unsure:

Yeah i have had snow on the ground since the big Dec storm.

Dont remember that ever happening here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Verbatim it would be one of those 7 degrees one night, 40 the next situations.  

Verbatim, the upcoming cold push is keeping it from snowing (much) the next few days. After that, the cold push charges out so fast it again keeps it from snowing. (much) 

That high is hauling east on the Euro and we are flooded with warm air. I thought at first that we'd have a pretty good CAD setup and a decent amount of frozen, but no...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Verbatim, the upcoming cold push is keeping it from snowing (much) the next few days. After that, the cold push charges out so fast it again keeps it from snowing. (much) 

That high is hauling east on the Euro and we are flooded with warm air. I thought at first that we'd have a pretty good CAD setup and a decent amount of frozen, but no...

The cold push seems to be less and less pronounced even if it is pushing this weeks precip south.   We have had this discussion on here before but I think if we want a a major snow storm with temps in the teens it has to be a wound up situation where cold air is pulled back into a storm.  If its 10 degrees for a high before a storm approaches its going to be hard to saturate that air. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Gorilla in the Gulf early next week on the Euro.   Probably cuts but would be a lot of something coming out of the sky. 

Its doing better than the GFS's 1 run jump.  That gorilla at 168 ONLY moved 300 miles from 75 miles S of LA coastline to central GA......

It's a lock. :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/6/2021 at 8:15 PM, MAG5035 said:

Possibly some kind of a light event Tuesday, with some light snow streaking across PA (perhaps light mix southern tier depending on the model). It seems the bigger trouble brewing will be late week in the Thur/Fri timeframe. This is looking like a drawn out warm advection type event at first with an eventual wave(s) of low pressure coming up towards PA. My concern with this setup is given the gradient pattern and the arctic air nearby is it looks like quite a favorable setup for having a significant icing swath. Not necessarily here, but somewhere. 18z GFS for instance mainly snow with this while the afternoon Euro run had alot of ice into PA. Those details are impossible to nail down at this point, but that Thur-Fri timeframe looks to be where the next more significant precip event materializes. 

Also the question of cold air, as the big time arctic air is on the playing field but trying to figure out how much eventually releases into the eastern US. Models have literally been all over the temperature spectrum, from the mixing events and temps near somewhat above freezing at times to throwing the whole polar vortex over the Great Lakes/NE and what would likely be record cold. Still going to be pretty cold immediately behind tomorrow's system but the significant arctic cold that was looking to happen earlier this coming week now looks to hold off to perhaps D6-7 or so. Guidance is having alot of trouble handling location of the gradient/storm track and the longwave pattern in general.

This above post was from back on Saturday.

I've been saying the last few days that this week isn't about getting the big storm...as we don't have the amplification in the pattern for it (late weekend into next week appears like that could be another story). We have a gradient pattern with overrunning waves running the gradient and the key was to locate where these swaths were going to go. Things have trended south the last few days, favoring the northern Mid-Atlantic region with best snows but still a good chance of a half decent snowfall south of I-80 and I'm not going to rule out some snow north of I-80 yet. Still looks like a two pronged event, with a surge of precip tomorrow night into Thurs and then late Thurs night into Fri.  Just a matter of how far north we can get this overrunning precip. To me this still looks like a good chance of a solid advisory event for the southern two tiers of counties in PA as is with best chances of 6"+ residing in the western MD counties and potentially getting up into the Laurel's counties on the southern tier. One fortunate thing about this trending south as it took the icing swath south, which was one of my concerns outlined on that post over the weekend and that definitely looks like that's coming to fruition. Most of those winter storm watches running the Ohio River across KY into WV are ice related or some kind of snow/ice combo. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Its doing better than the GFS's 1 run jump.  That gorilla at 168 ONLY moved 300 miles from 75 miles S of LA coastline to central GA......

It's a lock. :P

That's just it - way too early to say where this might be headed. Get us a gorilla and I'll start throwing bananas. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There seems to be a sentiment in here that any model run that shows a hit will definitely change for the negative while any run that shows a miss is a lock; while the only truth this winter seems the models will change wildly outside even 24 hours at times.


.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The cold push seems to be less and less pronounced even if it is pushing this weeks precip south.   We have had this discussion on here before but I think if we want a a major snow storm with temps in the teens it has to be a wound up situation where cold air is pulled back into a storm.  If its 10 degrees for a high before a storm approaches its going to be hard to saturate that air. 

Preach it man....preach it..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

There seems to be a sentiment in here that any model run that shows a hit will definitely change for the negative while any run that shows a miss is a lock; while the only truth this winter seems the models will change wildly outside even 24 hours at times.


.

It hurts less the way we do it.  

  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

There seems to be a sentiment in here that any model run that shows a hit will definitely change for the negative while any run that shows a miss is a lock; while the only truth this winter seems the models will change wildly outside even 24 hours at times.


.

Don’t think it’s a sentiment as much as following the trends and climatology. There very may well be a bump north yet for precip events, but right now all models are trending south. As many have said, digital snow showed a bunch of promise, but what actually comes to fruition may be different. Fun to track no matter what.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's just it - way too early to say where this might be headed. Get us a gorilla and I'll start throwing bananas. 

"It looks like it's headed west for sure - fun to track if it happens."

Hence my confused emoji, but I totally agree on the way too early part......

hence my 300 mile move in 1 run post.  NOONE knows whether this cuts for Chicago, or Columbia SC.  500's inspire little confidence (looking at GFS vs EURO. but I'd say that ENS guidance looks more suppressed for GEPS/GEFS vs ridgy on EPS.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, pasnownut said:

"It looks like it's headed west for sure - fun to track if it happens."

Hence my confused emoji, but I totally agree on the way too early part......

hence my 300 mile move in 1 run post.  NOONE knows whether this cuts for Chicago, or Columbia SC.  500's inspire little confidence (looking at GFS vs EURO. but I'd say that ENS guidance looks more suppressed for GEPS/GEFS vs ridgy on EPS.

 

 

Sorry - it looked like it was headed west for sure ON THAT RUN, as depicted. I'm sorry that I wasn't clear on that part. My bad.

The whole real cold thing before it snows - I somewhat agree with that. But, '96 I was SN+ for hours sitting on 12 degrees. It happened with one of the big boys over the past 10-15 years as well, but in general...too much cold is a bad thing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Sorry - it looked like it was headed west for sure ON THAT RUN, as depicted. I'm sorry that I wasn't clear on that part. My bad.

The whole real cold thing before it snows - I somewhat agree with that. But, '96 I was SN+ for hours sitting on 12 degrees. It happened with one of the big boys over the past 10-15 years as well, but in general...too much cold is a bad thing. 

I'll put what i think is a "fun" battle out there as 2 camps seem formed on our board.  

Camp 1 - seems to think too much cold is bad and leads t suppression depression.

Camp 2 - says how much of that modeled cold has come to light in the last few years?

To further the point/debate, I'd love to see stats on % of storms that came north inside of 48 to 72 vs how many ended up south inside same time frame?  Thats what I/some have been driving at. 

I'd wager wmspt's money (since hes got the most snow chips right now) that 75% or more came N and not S in said timeframe.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...