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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


Typhoon Tip
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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro op is closed the shades unless you’re semaatt. Eps is not much better. 

Game over unless the euro/eps have shat on themselves.

 

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those 2 maps you posted would have a heavy axis of snow back into E NY state. Game officially on

Two Entirely different perspectives.  One guy says it’s “game over,” the other says “game on.”

Very interesting set of modeling runs coming up today and tomorrow. 

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12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Two Entirely different perspectives.  One guy says it’s “game over,” the other says “game on.”

Very interesting set of modeling runs coming up today and tomorrow. 

Trends are not our friends but game over as in anything 12+ for us. Still have wiggle room to pull out a warning event. 

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I really hope this starts tucking back in towards Maine instead of exiting stage right, our snowmobiling related businesses are suffering bad up here with a complete crap season. This is the latest we haven't groomed in a season since at least the 90s, neighboring club has but they have a RR bed and we don't.

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10 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

I really hope this starts tucking back in towards Maine instead of exiting stage right, our snowmobiling related businesses are suffering bad up here with a complete crap season. This is the latest we haven't groomed in a season since at least the 90s, neighboring club has but they have a RR bed and we don't.

The pandemic has hit local bizz hard so if snow can help offset it, I’m all for it. GL up there, LFG!

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z Euro looks like it’s doing the wide right turn and then hooking north as well. Prob would destroy E MA/RI/SE CT next frame or two. 

 

As long as the hook is modelled I have hope, because then small adjustments north and west have big impacts, and the location of a deformation band gets interesting.  Is it still a big wide h5 with expansive precipq?

 

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4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro op is closed the shades unless you’re semaatt. Eps is not much better. 

Game over unless the euro/eps have shat on themselves.

 

 

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those 2 maps you posted would have a heavy axis of snow back into E NY state. Game officially on

is it game on, or game over?

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What a morgue in here, lol, Other then the Euro, It looks like models overnight ticked back NW some, We shall see what today brings,  We should have a good idea i think by 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow where this is going.

It’s brutal. One look at inflow Jerry posted was all any New Englander needed to see 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z Euro looks like it’s doing the wide right turn and then hooking north as well. Prob would destroy E MA/RI/SE CT next frame or two. 

 

What are your thoughts on the storm.

In one "camp" u have the EURO with the wide right scenario.

In the other camp you have GFS V.16 ukmet and Canadian with a more tucked scenario.

EURO obviously gets higher weight. However being on its own has to be a red flag.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s brutal. One look at inflow Jerry posted was all any New Englander needed to see 

Yeah, I don't know why some are ready to throw in the towel, We are a good 78-84hrs out from first flakes in CT, A good 12-18 hrs to go on the models for trends.

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

What are your thoughts on the storm.

In one "camp" u have the EURO with the wide right scenario.

In the other camp you have GFS V.16 ukmet and Canadian with a more tucked scenario.

EURO obviously gets higher weight. However being on its own has to be a red flag.

Being on its own didn’t pan out in Jan 15 but it will here...eveything is slowly sinking south. ENE looks good though. We need the ull to lift out of here asap for a big impact. It can happen, sure.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Being on its own didn’t pan out in Jan 15 but it will here...eveything is slowly sinking south. ENE looks good though. We need the ull to lift out of here asap for a big impact. It can happen, sure.

I do feel a south trend but not sold on a hook to eastern areas YET (at least not the 2 foot type) I still think something similar to the below.... Which is similar somewhat to UKMET V.16

image.png.93e6d8ef05a84a82034202e871f34868.png

 

 

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9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

As long as there is no clear strong feature to continue the s and e trend, I will go with climo n and w trends and better baroclinity further north.

The ull that's coming thru here today is playing a roll on upstream conditions at present that's affecting our system for the 1st, That's what needs to be watched.

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