Typhoon Tip

Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

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The psych ward is where we will live out our 20-21 season until wiz Inauguration Day on May 1.....it’s a long wait....you all deserve it...fml

  • Weenie 1

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The absence of a high to the northwest of the system allows the CCB to fan out north and west instead of pivoting, followed by the dry slot. Not a classic set-up at all.

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was fine with today's event...only had 3", while many had 5-6"....but I think alot of people would be irritated with 8", while 20 mi south had 20". And of those who deny it, 80% are lying.

Exactly!!! Years ago some of us were crucified for feeling that way. I just don't care as much anymore. So much can go wrong here.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro has that relative lull around Kev's area, as the N stream takes over....don't mind seeing it.

Monday-Tuesday...

The Pacific system arrives in the Eastern USA, generating a coastal
storm along the Carolina coast. GFS is faster, the ECMWF is slower.
Both bring plenty of precip to Srn New England, just a little
different on timing. As with the Sunday skies, and based on the
stronger amplitude aloft, we favored a stronger blend of the NBM
with slower guidance. Both camps of models bring roughly 1-2 inches
of water to the region, with snow over interior sections while the
coastal plain converts to rain Monday afternoon...then mixes with
snow Monday night and Tuesday. Interesting to see IVT guidance
clearly showing the moisture feeding in from an atmospheric river
from the southern Gulf of Mexico and waters east of Florida.

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44 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I have no idea why the Bermuda triangle sucked in so many members almost everything is w or nw of the mean:

image.thumb.png.46cf91dd97515409fe03cac943970c6c.png

There is always some LP on the trailing cold front.  Getting rid of them yields this.

eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_138 (1).png

eps_mslp_1000_eastcoastus_138.png

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s what I thought because the individual members didn’t have anything that far se. How do I get rid of those lows on WB?

No idea I don't subscribe 

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CMC ens look great for practically everyone, they’re a bit stronger then the EPS for sw zones but they have the same sw to ne tilt for the region getting more folks involved up north while se zones have changeover issues. GEFS is flatter so it’s better for se at the hands of NNE.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I would take the GFS for a thousand Alex

sn10_acc.us_ne (4).png

Yea. Grabbing 10+ works for me. 

So many changes to come, no one should be sweating anything yet. Hopefully TBlizz wakes up a little less worrisome this morning. Good times ahead.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Grabbing 10+ works for me. 

So many changes to come, no one should be sweating anything yet. Hopefully TBlizz wakes up a little less worrisome this morning. Good times ahead.

Yes sir..I said this yesterday.  And As Ginxy said Slow mover and juicy is all we need to see at this point.  That precip distribution should smooth out too imo with moisture transport such as that too. 

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