Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Allsnow]

3k Nam 1-2 feet for the metro and LI 

[SI Mailman]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Storms that slip east are not good for NJ though...the city is big...and east of us....

I'm 19 inches and you're 18 inches on this NAM run.  

[jm1220]

[SnoSki14]

The Nam is still an outlier right now. Others models are more tucked in.

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Nam is still an outlier right now. Others models are more tucked in.

Not the para gfs and euro

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We are good for 12+. Stop

 I made no judgement. I'm retired. It doesn't change my day one bit whether its 12 inches or not. 

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wham, bam, thank you NAM! 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

I'm 19 inches and you're 18 inches on this NAM run.  

I did not realize that it was showing those kinds of numbers. 

[jm1220]

Hopefully the RGEM in 30min ticks east again, if so the NAM may be onto something here. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Hopefully the RGEM in 30min ticks east again, if so the NAM may be onto something here. 

Nam did shift a bit further west from the last run. 

[donsutherland1]

The NAM’s focus of heaviest snows closely resembles earlier cycles of the GFSv16.

[Metsfan]

Everything looks good. East of route 112 is an issue. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Torch said:

Wasn’t it the nam in 2016 produced the most accurate predictions 24 hrs. Prior to the onset.

I think so but Jan 2016 was a different kind of storm than this one. We're in the range now where hopefully the NAM has a clue though. It's not 72-84 hours out anymore where it's usually discounted. Not sure how useful these are yet but the SREFs seemed pretty warm at 21z but sometimes the NMM/ARW models they run on are too amped. 

[Metsfan]

Looking for a good sounding website. I know psu has changed. 

[jm1220]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Nam did shift a bit further west from the last run. 

Even the RGEM and tucked models going east a little would be a great outcome for all of us other than the twin forks. The GFSv16 consistency is encouraging too, I don't see both of these flopping totally on their face this close in. The old GFS though I'm essentially disregarding. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Nam did shift a bit further west from the last run. 

See, I'm confused because people here are writing its east, then its not. Oh well. Best to let this one roll.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, Metsfan said:

Everything looks good. East of route 112 is an issue. 

Sorry for my ignorance, but I thought you and Anthony were the same guy...

[SnoSki14]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

See, I'm confused because people here are writing its east, then its not. Oh well. Best to let this one roll.

It's east compared to the other models but it did shift a bit further west from its last run.

[jm1220]

Just now, Metsfan said:

Looking for a good sounding website. I know psu has changed. 

PivotalWeather is pretty good. This is the sounding for my location at 21z Mon on the 0z NAM. 

[Nibor]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

See, I'm confused because people here are writing its east, then its not. Oh well. Best to let this one roll.

It's not east but it's inconsequential how far west it came with regard to the outcome of the run.

[Metsfan]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Sorry for my ignorance, but I thought you and Anthony were the same guy...

Um lol no. I'm actually a met. 

[SleetStormNJ]

NAM is kind of the only model though that shows the drop in PA and favors later coastal CCB development.  Have to watch that into runs of other models and tomorrow’s midday cycles.  

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's east compared to the other models but it did shift a bit further west from its last run.

Got it. I can only go by what others post, I don't look at the models myself. Don't have the attention span. 

[jdj5211]

53 minutes ago, Torch said:

What is your guts track record?

apparently 1 for 1! 

[Metsfan]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

PivotalWeather is pretty good. This is the sounding for my location at 21z Mon on the 0z NAM. 

JM you are nw suffolk. 

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, Metsfan said:

Um lol no. I'm actually a met. 

 

3 minutes ago, Metsfan said:

Um lol no. I'm actually a met. 

Yeah I see that. I just remember some picture posted here eons ago with some dude in a mets outfit, for some reason I thought it was Anthony. No disrespect intended for either of you.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

It's not east but it's inconsequential how far west it came with regard to the outcome of the run.

Definitely came west but it’s minor difference from 18z

[Metsfan]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

 

Yeah I see that. I just remember some picture posted here eons ago with some dude in a mets outfit, for some reason I thought it was Anthony. 

Dude I think he is banned, but years ago.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Definitely came west but it’s minor difference from 18z

Not tremendously, I'd say it's noise. Hopefully we're in consensus time where the tucked models can come east/develop a bit later and the models like NAM tick west a little.