Spanks45 Posted January 26 Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT... What? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted January 26 7 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT... It seems a little aggressive with sleet since I don't see anything in the column above 32 on the soundings. It's done that before. Maybe right near the coast closer to the warm tongue, but too aggressive IMO. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT... Sell. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Spanks45 Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What? some warm air aloft pushing in and not having strong enough rates leads to quicker changeover than forecasted or even a changeover where it wasn't forecasted....just saying something to watch, not saying that it is going to happen. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ORH_wxman Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll still intrigued about the norlun potential as we get closer. Ginxy’s H5 temps really drop off like a rock as that ULL moves in. Could be really intense too...but it looks like it might be too far east....downeast maine could actually be in a good spot. Acadia FTW....could clip the Cape too. But yeah, if that ULL trends a little SW, it could get pretty interesting. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: ?? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sn0waddict Posted January 26 Just now, Spanks45 said: some warm air aloft pushing in and not having strong enough rates leads to quicker changeover than forecasted or even a changeover where it wasn't forecasted....just saying something to watch, not saying that it is going to happen. It did this with the last storm too. It says seller but then you look at the sounding and nothing supports it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: ?? ??? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26 Apparently Kev has now gone blind and can't see what models show. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sell. Sell for north of 84, buying south of 84 after initial slug. We always get screwed down here with warmth coming in really quick, then washes away by 84. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Spanks45 Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: It did this with the last storm too. It says seller but then you look at the sounding and nothing supports it. I looked at the soundings and didn't see anything either, it warming just above 850, but never got too warm....could just be the model seeing spotty, lighter precip. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Sell for north of 84, buying south of 84 after initial slug. We always get screwed down here with warmth coming in really quick, then washes away by 84. I just mean for most of SNE....yea, should be some mixing well south. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorEastermass128 Posted January 26 I’ll take the GRAF for $1000, Alex. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Apparently Kev has now gone blind and can't see what models show. The HRRR? I mean lol Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26 I feel it's more a result of light precip rates and surface temps being on the "marginal" side, so the model spits out non-snow. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JC-CT Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: It did this with the last storm too. It says seller but then you look at the sounding and nothing supports it. It's the way the ptype algorithm is converted to graphics. When you see sleet on most of these sites, it could be all sleet, mostly snow with a little sleet mixed in, or somewhere in between. I had to look it up after last time. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginx snewx Posted January 26 27 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll still intrigued about the norlun potential as we get closer. Ginxy’s H5 temps really drop off like a rock as that ULL moves in. 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Could be really intense too...but it looks like it might be too far east....downeast maine could actually be in a good spot. Acadia FTW....could clip the Cape too. But yeah, if that ULL trends a little SW, it could get pretty interesting. Let's get this a tad SW. Instability is there with some TTs up there just need some RH Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dendrite Posted January 26 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It seems a little aggressive with sleet since I don't see anything in the column above 32 on the soundings. It's done that before. Maybe right near the coast closer to the warm tongue, but too aggressive IMO. It's ZL. Probably some nucleation issues with crappier lift. Pretty cold around 850 though, but the lift is in the meh zone. The RH drops off to Death Valley levels above the cloud layer. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's ZL. Probably some nucleation issues with crappier lift. Pretty cold around 850 though, but the lift is in the meh zone. The RH drops off to Death Valley levels above the cloud layer. Even that may be crappy snow with winds off the Atlantic. Perhaps it could be ZL with light rates. Pretty cold below 850. I just remember it had something like that to the pike in one event and it was all snow. I don't disagree..just not sure it will be up to I-84 like it shows. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dendrite Posted January 26 Just now, CoastalWx said: Even that may be crappy snow with winds off the Atlantic. Perhaps it could be ZL with light rates. Pretty cold below 850. I just remember it had something like that to the pike in one event and it was all snow. Yeah I always feel like models overestimate the nucleation issues out here...probably the salt nuclei like you said. It seems to be a bigger problem in the midwest and plains where you're pulling off ZR despite a sounding completely below 0C. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted January 26 Pretty sweet burst on the new NAM. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Probably 2" I think. I could see 3+ if the band holds together. Thanks.... we clear over 1”... my guess I’ll we’ll be out there tomorrow regardless Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The HRRR? I mean lol Why wouldn't you use a short term model for an event that is mere hours away? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ORH_wxman Posted January 26 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty sweet burst on the new NAM. Whoa....that ramped up. Borderline warning for the pike or just north. Meso short terms like it too (HRRR/RAP) but wasn't sure if they were just being their usual overzealous selves more than 6-8 hours out. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IowaStorm05 Posted January 26 It’s definitely a slight warming / lower totals trend for S CT in recent and short term runs. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PowderBeard Posted January 26 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty sweet burst on the new NAM. Yea comes in like a wall then swiss cheese. Be nice to see in the day light hours. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dendrite Posted January 26 3k not as impressed for north of the Pike, but still a few inches. Looks good for SE MA. The inv trough is looking decent too. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26 Cape Ann could be good for the second half Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
