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ORH_wxman

Jan 26-27 light snows

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Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT...

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4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT...

What?

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7 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT...

It seems a little aggressive with sleet since I don't see anything in the column above 32 on the soundings. It's done that before. Maybe right near the coast closer to the warm tongue, but too aggressive IMO.

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9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Hrrr is really aggressive with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain heading northeast rather quickly...wonder if this turns into an hour or 2 burst of snow that changes over and we end up with more of a coating to and inch with sleet and freezing rain. Especially for us here in CT...

Sell.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What?

some warm air aloft pushing in and not having strong enough rates leads to quicker changeover than forecasted or even a changeover where it wasn't forecasted....just saying something to watch, not saying that it is going to happen.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ll still intrigued about the norlun potential as we get closer. Ginxy’s H5 temps really drop off like a rock as that ULL moves in. 

Could be really intense too...but it looks like it might be too far east....downeast maine could actually be in a good spot. Acadia FTW....could clip the Cape too. But yeah, if that ULL trends a little SW, it could get pretty interesting.

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

some warm air aloft pushing in and not having strong enough rates leads to quicker changeover than forecasted or even a changeover where it wasn't forecasted....just saying something to watch, not saying that it is going to happen.

It did this with the last storm too. It says seller but then you look at the sounding and nothing supports it. 

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sell.

Sell for north of 84, buying south of 84 after initial slug. We always get screwed down here with warmth coming in really quick, then washes away by 84. 

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1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

It did this with the last storm too. It says seller but then you look at the sounding and nothing supports it. 

I looked at the soundings and didn't see anything either, it warming just above 850, but never got too warm....could just be the model seeing spotty, lighter precip. 

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I feel it's more a result of light precip rates and surface temps being on the "marginal" side, so the model spits out non-snow. 

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9 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

It did this with the last storm too. It says seller but then you look at the sounding and nothing supports it. 

It's the way the ptype algorithm is converted to graphics. When you see sleet on most of these sites, it could be all sleet, mostly snow with a little sleet mixed in, or somewhere in between. I had to look it up after last time.

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27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ll still intrigued about the norlun potential as we get closer. Ginxy’s H5 temps really drop off like a rock as that ULL moves in. 

 

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Could be really intense too...but it looks like it might be too far east....downeast maine could actually be in a good spot. Acadia FTW....could clip the Cape too. But yeah, if that ULL trends a little SW, it could get pretty interesting.

Let's get this a tad SW. Instability is there with some TTs up there just need some RH

download (79).png

download (81).png

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It seems a little aggressive with sleet since I don't see anything in the column above 32 on the soundings. It's done that before. Maybe right near the coast closer to the warm tongue, but too aggressive IMO.

It's ZL. Probably some nucleation issues with crappier lift. Pretty cold around 850 though, but the lift is in the meh zone. The RH drops off to Death Valley levels above the cloud layer.

image.png

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's ZL. Probably some nucleation issues with crappier lift. Pretty cold around 850 though, but the lift is in the meh zone. The RH drops off to Death Valley levels above the cloud layer.

image.png

Even that may be crappy snow with winds off the Atlantic. Perhaps it could be ZL with light rates. Pretty cold below 850. I just remember it had something like that to the pike in one event and it was all snow.  I don't disagree..just not sure it will be up to I-84 like it shows. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Even that may be crappy snow with winds off the Atlantic. Perhaps it could be ZL with light rates. Pretty cold below 850. I just remember it had something like that to the pike in one event and it was all snow. 

Yeah I always feel like models overestimate the nucleation issues out here...probably the salt nuclei like you said. It seems to be a bigger problem in the midwest and plains where you're pulling off ZR despite a sounding completely below 0C.

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31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The HRRR? I mean lol

Why wouldn't you use a short term model for an event that is mere hours away?

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty sweet burst on the new NAM.

Whoa....that ramped up. Borderline warning for the pike or just north. Meso short terms like it too (HRRR/RAP) but wasn't sure if they were just being their usual overzealous selves more than 6-8 hours out.

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3k not as impressed for north of the Pike, but still a few inches. Looks good for SE MA. The inv trough is looking decent too.

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