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snowman19

February 2021

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18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow that's crazy. 2017/2018 was a top 5 winter for me and 2016/2017 was over 40. Surprised you did not crack 40 or 50 either of those years.

I think I finished short of 40 during those years.

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21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah not saying we don't scrap our way to 40 (I am at 34 now which is average for my area), I am more disappointed in the fact that usually when blocking breaks down we get a hecs or mecs, especially if the blocking hits historic levels. 

We may get couple inches here or there to 40, and we all know March is a roll of the dice no matter the background state, just wanted this historic blocking to go out with a bang.

I thought our chance would have been next week but the models are looking bad. I'm shocked how the models are really warming up  the coast as the low comes up.  The NAO, PNA and AO aren't bad right now.

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I thought our chance would have been next week but the models are looking bad. I'm shocked how the models are really warming up  the coast as the low comes up.  The NAO, PNA and AO aren't bad right now.

problem is the deep cold went into Texas and we're alot warmer than progged a week ago and the SE ridge is flexing   

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

did you measure it yourself or are you using JFK numbers?

 

I was working alot during those years so I got the numbers from spotters and JFK. I measured myself this winter since I got more time to do so.

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

problem is the deep cold went into Texas and we're alot warmer than progged a week ago.    

Remember when the models have below 0 for us this week lol

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10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m sure he will be back to try and spin it but we all know he was wrong. 

Exactly.  Usually in a typical La Niña the pattern flips late January into early February.    The fact that it’s almost mid month and we’ve had 3 snowstorms just shows La Niña didn’t win the battle this year. 

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7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

problem is the deep cold went into Texas and we're alot warmer than progged a week ago and the SE ridge is flexing   

We have almost 40 inches for the winter where some people were calling for La Niña to torch our region.  We won.

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Just now, Neblizzard said:

We have almost 40 inches for the winter where some people were calling for La Niña to torch our region.  We won.

Yep. And let’s not forget the system in December. This was far from the torch prediction/Niña look that a certain someone was trolling 

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18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was working alot during those years so I got the numbers from spotters and JFK. I measured myself this winter since I got more time to do so.

well JFK had 40 inches that winter, maybe you're re-adjusting your numbers downward because you had less than 30" in the Jan 2016 blizzard?  Although I think you might have hit it because it should've run west-east right through your area.

 

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. And let’s not forget the system in December. This was far from the torch prediction/Niña look that a certain someone was trolling 

which I think we can convincingly show there is no such thing as a "nina look" because there are many different factors that define a pattern....nina "look" was awesome for us in 95-96 and 10-11 wasn't it ;) but of course there is no rationality or reasoning with an enso fundamentalist

 

 

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Walt.

What a massive disappointment for the end of the historic blocking period. Usually blocking ends with a snowstorm. Happy that we at least reached average snowfall for winter.

 

Not over, til it's over.  Today is the 11th, the last event in this coming series is 7-8 days away that may change in its outlook. There could be others the very end of Feb or March.  Just in the series, we're living on the edge of decent snow, rather than the heart of there axis. 

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The past 2 GFS runs had no snow (< 0.1 liquid equiv) in NYC for the entire runs. The v16 GFS was similar through 240 hours. And the CMC was only slightly better. Ensembles have also shifted dominant ptype from snow to mix or rain for the next few threats. I think the expectation should start with not much snow. But there are several threats out there in the mid and long range, and modeled snow is not too far off to our north. But things have clearly shifted less snowy over the past 3 days.

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4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Not over, til it's over.  Today is the 11th, the last event in this coming series is 7-8 days away that may change in its outlook. There could be others the very end of Feb or March.  Just in the series, we're living on the edge of decent snow, rather than the heart of there axis. 

IMO the next 7 days is going to require deep analysis of each model soundings to just try and determine what the precip type might be for any given location because a few miles one way or the other in the metro might have different frozen types - a really confusing situation for forecasters IMO.....

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO the next 7 days is going to require deep analysis of each model soundings to just try and determine what the precip type might be for any given location because a few miles one way or the other in the metro might have different frozen types - a really confusing situation for forecasters IMO.....

Agreed 100%  . depends in part on the strength of each WAA pulse and whether we can ever close off something at 850MB s of LI which looks doubtful but I am interested in the eventual progress of these systems.  The little ones add up. We'll need to track water equivalent in the remains snowpack on the morning o the 20th. 

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5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Agreed 100%  . depends in part on the strength of each WAA pulse and whether we can ever close off something at 850MB s of LI which looks doubtful but I am interested in the eventual progress of these systems.  The little ones add up. We'll need to track water equivalent in the remains snowpack on the morning o the 20th. 

Do you think if the Tuesday system cuts a little west and amps up, it will increase the chances of snow for Friday and it could block the Friday system from cutting west? Maybe that's why although Tuesdays system is trending wetter, Fridays system is trending a little whiter.

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3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Do you think if the Tuesday system cuts a little west and amps up, it will increase the chances of snow for Friday and it could block the Friday system from cutting west? Maybe that's why although Tuesdays system is trending wetter, Fridays system is trending a little whiter.

Have not looked at that very closely. Probably won't. Difficult to  beat the models but always look for the edge. Its' trying hard to close off over Texas but then merges with northern stream by the time it gets here.

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57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

did you measure it yourself or are you using JFK numbers?

 

2017 was not good for snow in our area of the metro; the big march storm was 5-6 of sleet. The last big year for above normal snow was 2014; 2015 was above as well but the storms were mostly small and unimpressive. 2016 had one very big event. 2018 had some good events in some parts of the forum ( mine was not among them ). So this is about the best its been in years locally, unless you hate snow and winter, as most people around me do....

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The positive 500mb height Anomaly along with the 850mb T anomaly-----seem to just keep getting stronger for the next 8 days, and monotonically so.      Both reach +3.0sd by then.       What the hell went wrong?     And we were going to have a -6 morning.

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6 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The positive 500mb height Anomaly along with the 850mb T anomaly-----seem to just keep getting stronger for the next 8 days, and monotonically so.      Both reach +3.0sd by then.       What the hell went wrong?     And we were going to have a -6 morning.

Well, I'm not exactly upset about not having below zero temperatures.  That's just foul.  Cold enough for snow is good for me.  I find that I have much less tolerance for extreme cold than I did even a few years ago.  I could spend hours on end playing pond hockey in my 20's and not feel a thing.  Not sure if I could do it now.

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1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO the next 7 days is going to require deep analysis of each model soundings to just try and determine what the precip type might be for any given location because a few miles one way or the other in the metro might have different frozen types - a really confusing situation for forecasters IMO.....

the problem is none of next week's storms are properly sampled yet as they are all still over the open water

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46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It does look like the first week of February will turn out to be the snowiest week of the month near the coast. You can see how the weakening blocking along with the MJO is allowing the SE Ridge to return. But perhaps we can get another uptick in blocking later on. 
 

Perfect 500mb look first week of February

C04BA5F3-1FC0-4FFF-8190-0FB64382BF94.gif.f7d29cbd76605fa3a5617cc3fbe394eb.gif

Latest 10 day forecast

07C42CB8-4230-434A-BDB6-88EE4130A182.thumb.png.fa692063188e9dfb4b6e417a34490927.png

C3AB59FE-FE4E-4110-ADF8-C2AAAFE89AF5.thumb.png.1e131e780abe0834a7722e15ce73a2e7.png

 

 

yes, furthering the 1993-94 analogy, after the big storms at the beginning of February we basically nickled and dimed our way to 50" the rest of that winter

we were nickeling and diming it before those events that season too lol

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Have not looked at that very closely. Probably won't. Difficult to  beat the models but always look for the edge. Its' trying hard to close off over Texas but then merges with northern stream by the time it gets here.

but Walt another factor must be that those storms are still over the ocean and perhaps not properly sampled yet

 

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11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yes, furthering the 1993-94 analogy, after the big storms at the beginning of February we basically nickled and dimed our way to 50" the rest of that winter

we were nickeling and diming it before those events that season too lol

It’s tough to make comparisons to before the super El Niño in 15-16 since winters have been so much warmer. 

 

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s tough to make comparisons to before the super El Niño in 15-16 since winters have been so much warmer. 

 

yes this like the "junior edition"  do you think both the 1982-83 and the 1997-98 super el ninos had a similar long lasting effect?

also, why is it our summers haven't been as hot since then (in terms of 90 degree highs), maybe we've gotten wetter since also?

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

but Walt another factor must be that those storms are still over the ocean and perhaps not properly sampled yet

 

72 hour is usually the demarcation for good UA sampling but with such a precarious balance of warm air aloft nearby, we may not know til 24-36 hours in advance. 12z/12 RGEM appears of on its on the 15th with an e lakes low while the V16 i think is correctly colder icy or snowy with a low s of LI.  OP GFS in between but for now, I'd continue with a cold scenario with the only problem 875-750MB.  Point is... at 72 hours, the models don't appear to have any decent consensus.  so for the 18th-19th, ensemble solution is best. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

yes this like the "junior edition"  do you think both the 1982-83 and the 1997-98 super el ninos had a similar long lasting effect?

also, why is it our summers haven't been as hot since then (in terms of 90 degree highs), maybe we've gotten wetter since also?

 

The other thing is how much warmer strong -AO patterns have become. This is only the 4th year with with a -1 AO or lower for all 3 winter months DJF. I believe Don had a great post a while back on the warming -AO patterns. This winter so far through February 10th is the warmest on the list.

NYC average temperature for a -1 or lower AO for each individual month Dec, Jan, and Feb 

Dec 1 to Feb 10 average temperature NYC

20-21....36.4°

09-10....33.7°

76-77...26.0°

69-70°...30.1°
 

 

 

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