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February 2021


snowman19
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A period of light precipitation is likely tonight into tomorrow.  Little or no snow accumulation (0.5" or less) is likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Some freezing rain is possible, with larger amounts north and west of those cities. Additional storms will very likely impact the region next week.

Parts of the Northern Plains and Canada experienced a continuation of record and near record cold temperatures from what has been the coldest air mass since February 1994 in parts of that region. Minimum temperatures included:

Duluth: -35° (old record: -29°, 1905) ***Coldest since February 2, 1996***
Estevan, SK: -37° (old record: -31°, 1970)
Flin Flon, MB: -44° (old record: -38°, 1974)
International Falls, MN: -42° (old record: -39°, 1909)
Norway House, MB: -48° (old record: -38°, 2008)
Prince Albert, SK: -43° (old record: -41°, 1951)
Regina: -37°
Saskatoon: -34°
The Pas, MB: -43° (old record: -34°, 2008)
Thompson, MB: -46° (old record: -45°, 2014)
Winnipeg: -36° (old record: -34°, 1949)

That frigid air will continue to slowly advance south and eastward through the remainder of this weekend. This will lead to snow and record-breaking cold in Texas.

Select Record Low Maximum Temperatures for February 14:

Austin: 33°, 1951
Brownsville: 44°, 1951
Corpus Christi: 30°, 1895
Dallas: 27°, 1951

Select Record Low Minimum Temperatures for February 14:

Austin: 10°, 1899
Brownsville: 18°, 1899
Corpus Christi: 26°, 1895
Dallas: 15°, 1905, 1909, 1936

Select Snowfall Records for February 14:

Austin: 1.6", 2004
Dallas: 3.0", 1951

Dallas will likely see temperatures fall to the single digits and likely the coldest levels on record so late in the season. On Monday, the high temperature at Dallas could also challenge that city's record for the lowest maximum temperature on record. That record is 12°, which was set on February 12, 1899.However, this air mass will likely avoid any direct impact on the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. A piece of the air mass could still graze the region at some point next week.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is now rebounding from its lowest levels in nearly eight years. It is forecast to rise sharply in coming days. The latest guidance suggests that the AO could attain positive values for the first time since December 25, 2020 when the AO was +0.226. This development will likely lead to at least a period of above normal temperatures in the East. Whether it will mark the end of the prolonged period of blocking that has prevailed throughout winter 2020-21, or a temporary break, remains to be seen.

A dramatic increase in the AO has sometimes coincided with storminess. Therefore, the February 14-24 period might offer a window of opportunity for a meaningful storm. That window of opportunity could extend through the end of February should blocking persist or return.

Since 1950, there were 11 cases during the January 16-February 28 timeframe that saw the AO rise at least 3 sigma from a minimum value of -4.000 or below within a 7-day period. Four cases saw a major snowstorm in parts of the Middle Atlantic or New England regions within 3 weeks of the AO's reaching its minimum value. The dates of the AO's minimum value for those four cases with storm dates in parentheses are January 25, 1958 (February 14-17, 1958 NESIS: 6.25), January 19, 1969 (February 8-10, 1969 NESIS: 3.51), February 15, 1969 (February 22-28, 1969 NESIS: 4.29), and January 16, 2016 (January 22-24, 2016 NESIS: 7.66).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +2.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.177 today

On February 12 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.610 (RMM). The February 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.131.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the end of the third week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 23.3" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.4° (2.9° below normal).

 

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40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what year did you leave Oceanside? I take it it was before the Jan 1994 ice storm so you cant make a comparison for there?

 

I initially left in 1984 but was back for a few months late 85/early 86 then again from late Nov 93 to April 1 1994 so I was on LI for that winter. I worked at the old ski shop that was on Northern Blvd in Little Neck so got to commute from the no zone to the snow (ice) zone 4 or 5 days a week. That winter of 93/94 was pretty amazing for the NY Metro especially after the wonder of the 70's and 80's. I saw more rotten weather in the space of a few weeks than in the years I lived in VT and CO before that, obviously not more snow but more unpleasant and ugly weather. If I didn't drive an old Jeep that winter I'd have hated being there. Because of that Jeep and the job I had I could get out skiing often and for little or no money. I skied some of the best powder of my life on night at Vernon Valley (Mt Creek now), it was frzg rain early afternoon in Queens and when it flipped to snow I jumped in the Jeep and headed there. When I got there it was already nearly knee deep and just got better all night. The liftie at South tried to shut the lift down twice so I had to smoke the guy out to keep the chair running for me :) Whoda thunk, balls deep fluff at 14* in NJ. Anyway... that winter had the worst ice storms and driving conditions I had seen in O'side and that included some of the other great ice storms of the late 70's because it was constant and long lasting rather than those because they never had any real staying power (that I remember).

Now, I have seen considerably worse weather in Tahoe, try torrential downpour into a 15 foot deep snowpack at 28* and when the rain ended the wind did it's thing and the temp dropped to 4*. The whole place locked up solid. It was awesome :wacko2:

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It depends on how much predictability one is looking for. The statistical evidence is fairly clear that snowfall is more frequent during negative AO states in the New York City area (and also Middle Atlantic Region).

...

In short, a negative AO, especially one at -1.000 or below, provides a favorable large-scale state for snowfall overall in the Middle Atlantic Region. However, the synoptic details matter. The placement of synoptic features and their evolution occur within the large-scale hemispheric background state and are, at least in part, influenced by the AO.

Don, I agree there is a correlation between local snowfall and the AO. As I said, my issue is the predictability of the AO in the long-term. If today we could know what the AO will be on March 15, we could make a rough statistical assessment of the likelihood of snow on that date. But as it stands we can only make a rough guess.  The correlation only really works in hindsight. 

There is a possibly self-evident but also analogous correlation between snowfall and temperature. When you look back at historical stats, you will find that significant snowfalls are far more likely during periods with below average temperatures than above average. But because of the state of modeling, we don't really have much confidence in specific threats until 7-10 days in advance at the earliest. 

A strongly negative AO can reverse in 2 weeks. And it's not very predictive of specific threats. Negative AO states can be associated with long periods of dry weather or snowfall. Snowfall just appears less likely with positive AO values. Just like how snowfall is less likely with temperatures above 40F. That doesn't mean it will snow if it's cold.

 

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4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Don, I agree there is a correlation between local snowfall and the AO. As I said, my issue is the predictability of the AO in the long-term. If today we could know what the AO will be on March 15, we could make a rough statistical assessment of the likelihood of snow on that date. But as it stands we can only make a rough guess.  The correlation only really works in hindsight. 

There is a possibly self-evident but also analogous correlation between snowfall and temperature. When you look back at historical stats, you will find that significant snowfalls are far more likely during periods with below average temperatures than above average. But because of the state of modeling, we don't really have much confidence in specific threats until 7-10 days in advance at the earliest. 

A strongly negative AO can reverse in 2 weeks. And it's not very predictive of specific threats. Negative AO states can be associated with long periods of dry weather or snowfall. Snowfall just appears less likely with positive AO values. Just like how snowfall is less likely with temperatures above 40F. That doesn't mean it will snow if it's cold.

 

Beyond two weeks, predictability of the AO is not great. And it’s just one variable in the mix.

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4 hours ago, uncle W said:

# dates..................-AO.......weather...

1...01/15/1977.....-7.433...biggest snowfall of the season followed right after and below zero temps four days later...very cold winter...

5...03/05/1970.....-6.365...temp drops to 20 for the coldest of the month...Easter snowstorm 3/29...very cold winter...

6...01/19/1985.....-6.226...cold wave with below zero temps a day later...biggest snowstorm that winter on 2/5-6 of 5.7"...4.1" on 1/18...

10 11/18/1959.....-5.896...6-14" snowstorm on 12/22...14.5" snowstorm March 3-4th...

11 12/21/2009.....-5.821...snowstorm 12/19-20...Feb snowstorms...

14 03/20/2013.....-5.688...snowstorm 3/18...11" snowstorm in Feb...to late in the season...

18 01/03/2010.....-5.533...two snowstorms in Feb...

28 02/05/1978.....-5.291...blizzard 2/6-7...

30 02/13/1969.....-5.282...snowstorm 2/9-10...

31 12/18/2010.....-5.265...blizzard 12/26-27 and 1/26-27...

39 01/28/1966.....-5.130...KU snowstorm 1/29-30...7" in NYC...coldest temp of the winter...1/28...

42 10/18/2002.....-5.098...early Dec snowstorm...Big Feb snowstorm...

45 01/21/1963.....-5.010... 4 degrees 1/24...4-5" of snow 1/26...biggest of the season...very cold winter...

wow we dipped to below -5 twice in 09-10 and then again in Dec 2010

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Off all those winter years, this will be the most rapid rise to positive on record.  It normally took 2 weeks to a month to become positive following the -5 or lower readings.This is a big part of why the models shifted so dramatically over the last week. But it looks like we can get some weaker more east based blocking later in the month. Maybe NYC can make a run on 40” before the season is over.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

-5 AO date....first positive AO date

1-15-77....3-3-77

1-19-85....2-19-85

12-21-09....1-16-10

1-3-10........1-16-10

2-5-78.........3-9-78

2-13-69.......3-29-69

12-18-10.....1-16-11

1-28-66.......2-11-66

1-21-63.......2-24-63

 

81A1C7DB-BF82-4E4D-9457-E79A7E97E1D9.thumb.gif.7e72960959ab459dc6be892077e31dc9.gif

Chris what changed to cause the rapid rise?

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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I initially left in 1984 but was back for a few months late 85/early 86 then again from late Nov 93 to April 1 1994 so I was on LI for that winter. I worked at the old ski shop that was on Northern Blvd in Little Neck so got to commute from the no zone to the snow (ice) zone 4 or 5 days a week. That winter of 93/94 was pretty amazing for the NY Metro especially after the wonder of the 70's and 80's. I saw more rotten weather in the space of a few weeks than in the years I lived in VT and CO before that, obviously not more snow but more unpleasant and ugly weather. If I didn't drive an old Jeep that winter I'd have hated being there. Because of that Jeep and the job I had I could get out skiing often and for little or no money. I skied some of the best powder of my life on night at Vernon Valley (Mt Creek now), it was frzg rain early afternoon in Queens and when it flipped to snow I jumped in the Jeep and headed there. When I got there it was already nearly knee deep and just got better all night. The liftie at South tried to shut the lift down twice so I had to smoke the guy out to keep the chair running for me :) Whoda thunk, balls deep fluff at 14* in NJ. Anyway... that winter had the worst ice storms and driving conditions I had seen in O'side and that included some of the other great ice storms of the late 70's because it was constant and long lasting rather than those because they never had any real staying power (that I remember).

Now, I have seen considerably worse weather in Tahoe, try torrential downpour into a 15 foot deep snowpack at 28* and when the rain ended the wind did it's thing and the temp dropped to 4*. The whole place locked up solid. It was awesome :wacko2:

wow could you imagine Tahoe weather occurring in NY people would go absolutely crazy!

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 30degs.(25/35), or -5.0.

Models look warmer, but have decided to throw some snow into the picture.

Flat pattern setting up by the 22nd.       SE Ridge in control except near the 20th.      Month looks DOA.      BN ending?     -6 became +20(over 8 days), a slight miscue in the eyes of the GFS.      No problem.

For the part of the wintertime  that remains and has any meaning, the period 2/28 to 3/10 has semi-favorable TC's.      The PNA is a -4sd trainwreck for the next 30 days,  however.        A fortuitous combination of the others may neutralize it.      (From the 30 Day EURO)      

Maybe it is just 'Ghoul-ash'.

30*(86%RH)here at 6am.    32* by 9am.      37* by Noon.      38* all  afternoon and at 6pm.

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow could you imagine Tahoe weather occurring in NY people would go absolutely crazy!

 

That rainstorm was just part of a much bigger picture. It started snowing at 1am on 12/5 and only stopped for a day or two here and there. By January 28th we had more than 30 feet in town. The base (settled snow) at mid mountain at Kirkwood was over 240" and Squaw was well over 200". At one point several of the ski areas couldn't turn their lifts off for several days straight or they would have been buried. The snow was coming in bursts of 2-4 feet at a time. Before we left home we'd make notes for the things we needed to do because you couldn't make left turns out of parking lots so you'd go to the end of town and turn around in the KMart parking lot then go back towards home. The banks along US 50 (the main street through S Tahoe) were 10 feet high up the center suicide lane and higher where the sidewalks used to be. Nearly every day the town and state would come through with huge blowers and dump trucks and cart the stuff off to a snow dump that still had 20 foot high piles on July 4th. Homes along side streets had their front windows boarded over so the blowers wouldn't take them out and many homes used their second floor entrances for weeks at a time because the first floor was 10 feet under. The biggest storm of the season was 128" in 30 hours in my driveway, 12 straight hours of shoveling, a case of beer and a big bag of weed got me through :) At the time it was a state snowfall record for Incline Village at 15"/hr for nearly 4 hours straight.

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Morning thoughts...

Record-cold is now advancing through Texas with falling temperatures and snow. At Dallas, the 6 am CST temperature was 18°. The daily record low maximum temperature of 27°, which was set in 1951, will very likely be broken today. The temperature will then plunge into the single digits tonight. In the Pacific Northwest, Seattle picked up 8.9” snow yesterday. That was Seattle’s biggest daily snowfall since January 27, 1969 when 14.9” snow fell and its 12th biggest daily snowfall on record, tied with December 23, 1965. The daily record for February 13 was 1.1” from 1986.

In the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, much quieter weather will prevail today. It will be mostly cloudy with some pockets of freezing drizzle and drizzle. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 36°

Newark: 36°

Philadelphia: 37°

Tomorrow will likely see precipitation overspread the area.

In the long-range, there is growing consensus among the ensembles that a sustained milder pattern will develop around or just after February 20.

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44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This goes to the increasing volatility of the AO and NAO in recent years. Big swings have become the new normal. The only time that I can find a similar rapid rise from -5 to positive in a few days was October 2002. You know things are getting extreme when you have to look to other seasons for AO comparisons. But this one will be a several days quicker with more of a rise.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii


2002 10 18 -5.098
2002 10 19 -4.850
2002 10 20 -4.350
2002 10 21 -3.516
2002 10 22 -2.378
2002 10 23 -1.148
2002 10 24 -0.238
2002 10 25  0.169
2002 10 26  0.666
2002 10 27  0.565

FDA3C521-7975-4B14-B429-CFF0E157EA40.thumb.gif.4a425b6254abefb8aed017f1ee1f5154.gif

 

 

I think there was a sharp rise in the AO just before the blizzard of 2016...it was almost a -5sd...

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52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This goes to the increasing volatility of the AO and NAO in recent years. Big swings have become the new normal. The only time that I can find a similar rapid rise from -5 to positive in a few days was October 2002. You know things are getting extreme when you have to look to other seasons for AO comparisons. But this one will be a several days quicker with more of a rise.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii


2002 10 18 -5.098
2002 10 19 -4.850
2002 10 20 -4.350
2002 10 21 -3.516
2002 10 22 -2.378
2002 10 23 -1.148
2002 10 24 -0.238
2002 10 25  0.169
2002 10 26  0.666
2002 10 27  0.565

FDA3C521-7975-4B14-B429-CFF0E157EA40.thumb.gif.4a425b6254abefb8aed017f1ee1f5154.gif

 

 

I do not know if you agree, but I feel that we may be heading back to the December pattern. I believe the MJO was in 6 then as well with a negative PNA.

What I find interesting is it seems people are contributing the negatives AO and nao to the SSWE. However, we had a negative NAO in December before the SSWE. Perhaps we get one more crack with the December pattern revisit.

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45 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I think there was a sharp rise in the AO just before the blizzard of 2016...it was almost a -5sd...

There was.

Since 1950, there were 11 cases during the January 16-February 28 timeframe that saw the AO rise at least 3 sigma from a minimum value of -4.000 or below within a 7-day period. Four cases saw a major snowstorm in parts of the Middle Atlantic or New England regions within 3 weeks of the AO's reaching its minimum value. The dates of the AO's minimum value for those four cases with storm dates in parentheses are January 25, 1958 (February 14-17, 1958 NESIS: 6.25), January 19, 1969 (February 8-10, 1969 NESIS: 3.51), February 15, 1969 (February 22-28, 1969 NESIS: 4.29), and January 16, 2016 (January 22-24, 2016 NESIS: 7.66).

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13 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Don, statistically does having this strong of a recent -AO correlate to it coming back negative in a certain time period? Like you just said predicting it is almost impossible, but I guess I’m just asking do you think we could see one more blocking period in March?

The sample size is too small to draw conclusions. Below are the outcomes for the February cases where the AO reached -5.000 or below:

February 1969: Blocking continued through much of March with 28 days on which the AO was negative and 23 days on which it was -1.000 or below: Minimum: -3.469, March 19.

February 1978: Blocking effectively ended after the first week of March. Minimum: -3.217, March 4.

February 2010: Blocking returned in late March. Minimum: -2.251, March 28. Winter 2009-10 saw only a trace of snow for the March-April 2010 period.

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Newark had 10" of snow on the ground this morning and the 13th day this month there was at least 10" of snow on the ground sometime during the day...8 in a row now...2014 had 9 in a row from the 13th-21st and 10 overall...1994 had 8 in a row and 9 overall...1961 had 7 all in a row...2003 and 2011 6...I think this is a new record for Newark Airport...

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30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The sample size is too small to draw conclusions. Below are the outcomes for the February cases where the AO reached -5.000 or below:

February 1969: Blocking continued through much of March with 28 days on which the AO was negative and 23 days on which it was -1.000 or below: Minimum: -3.469, March 19.

February 1978: Blocking effectively ended after the first week of March. Minimum: -3.217, March 4.

February 2010: Blocking returned in late March. Minimum: -2.251, March 28. Winter 2009-10 saw only a trace of snow for the March-April 2010 period.

I remember early April 2010 saw record breaking heat up here.  Would be wild to see that again in one of these Springs. 

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Is there going to be a separate Topic for this Thurs/Fri which has reemerged on the GFS for a few runs?:

Looks borderline doable.      Could disappear again.         Really a TriFecta  of Snow>Sleet>Rain.        2.8" liquid, but just 7" of snow.

1613304000-YUwhvF5PXf8.png

Thank You.....donsutherland1

.

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

This goes to the increasing volatility of the AO and NAO in recent years. Big swings have become the new normal. The only time that I can find a similar rapid rise from -5 to positive in a few days was October 2002. You know things are getting extreme when you have to look to other seasons for AO comparisons. But this one will be a several days quicker with more of a rise.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii


2002 10 18 -5.098
2002 10 19 -4.850
2002 10 20 -4.350
2002 10 21 -3.516
2002 10 22 -2.378
2002 10 23 -1.148
2002 10 24 -0.238
2002 10 25  0.169
2002 10 26  0.666
2002 10 27  0.565

FDA3C521-7975-4B14-B429-CFF0E157EA40.thumb.gif.4a425b6254abefb8aed017f1ee1f5154.gif

 

 

but we still had an amazing winter that year, did the AO go back down again?

 

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7 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

I remember early April 2010 saw record breaking heat up here.  Would be wild to see that again in one of these Springs. 

that was my favorite summer.....here are the GOATs...Babe Ruth, Tom Brady, Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzsky,  Secretariat, Jack Nicklaus,  Jim Thorpe, Michael Phelps, Jessie Owens, Carl Lewis,  THE WINTER OF 1996 and THE SUMMER OF 2010 !

We're back in the 11 yr cycle.

 

 

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The sample size is too small to draw conclusions. Below are the outcomes for the February cases where the AO reached -5.000 or below:

February 1969: Blocking continued through much of March with 28 days on which the AO was negative and 23 days on which it was -1.000 or below: Minimum: -3.469, March 19.

February 1978: Blocking effectively ended after the first week of March. Minimum: -3.217, March 4.

February 2010: Blocking returned in late March. Minimum: -2.251, March 28. Winter 2009-10 saw only a trace of snow for the March-April 2010 period.

I dont think we had much snow in March 1969 did we?  March 1978 did have one decent 3-5 inch event.

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10 hours ago, gravitylover said:

That rainstorm was just part of a much bigger picture. It started snowing at 1am on 12/5 and only stopped for a day or two here and there. By January 28th we had more than 30 feet in town. The base (settled snow) at mid mountain at Kirkwood was over 240" and Squaw was well over 200". At one point several of the ski areas couldn't turn their lifts off for several days straight or they would have been buried. The snow was coming in bursts of 2-4 feet at a time. Before we left home we'd make notes for the things we needed to do because you couldn't make left turns out of parking lots so you'd go to the end of town and turn around in the KMart parking lot then go back towards home. The banks along US 50 (the main street through S Tahoe) were 10 feet high up the center suicide lane and higher where the sidewalks used to be. Nearly every day the town and state would come through with huge blowers and dump trucks and cart the stuff off to a snow dump that still had 20 foot high piles on July 4th. Homes along side streets had their front windows boarded over so the blowers wouldn't take them out and many homes used their second floor entrances for weeks at a time because the first floor was 10 feet under. The biggest storm of the season was 128" in 30 hours in my driveway, 12 straight hours of shoveling, a case of beer and a big bag of weed got me through :) At the time it was a state snowfall record for Incline Village at 15"/hr for nearly 4 hours straight.

wow and I thought the mountains in WA had the most snow, looks like Tahoe may have set a world record for snowfall.

 

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2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

No I don't think so. I do know that watching it go dark in the house in the middle of the afternoon because the snow covered the windows is pretty awesome. 

I've seen some cams from there with snow piling up live and it reminds me of what we saw in cams from Boxing Day in Monmouth County, but even higher rates and lasted much longer.

I remember they had skiing July 4th one year.

 

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More than one. Mammoth and Alpine Valley have been open that late a few times. That year I lived there Alpine closed on 6/28 with 100" base on the upper mtn. Mammoth was open for skiing in July when the World Cup MTB Downhill was held, they used monster custom made snowblowers to clear the course down to the ground so it could be ridden. We were standing on our skis looking down 10 feet to the riders underneath us. That was pretty freaking amazing.

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