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February the climo snow month

Ginx snewx

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Sweet vort pass on last nights euro. Other models sort of backed off a bit but not enough to not be interested. This has a SNE up through NNE look to it. Issue I have with setup is the trough is kind of hooked up back towards Canada. Kind of an extension of the tpv. Would probably be a fast mover but a crusher if this verified. 


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The overnight from WPC seems like a good way to think about the next 10 days.  Here are some snippets:

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 AM EST Tue Feb 02 2021

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 05 2021 - 12Z Tue Feb 09 2021

...Major Arctic Outbreak for the Central and Eastern U.S...

The latest medium range models and ensembles offer reasonably well
clustered mid-larger scale guidance. The upper pattern will
highlight an amplified ridge over the eastern Pacific/Alaska and
an amplified longwave trough over central North America. A series
shortwaves will dig to the lee of the ridge to reinforce the mean
trough position. This will allow for a significant intrusion of
Arctic air to overspread and hold a firm grip on much of the
central and eastern U.S.. Shortwave details often prove difficult
to pinpoint at medium range time scales, but offer multiple
opportunities to induce frontal waves and swaths of wintry
precipitation in the widespread cold airmass.

This energy and subsequent systems will dive into an amplified
central U.S. upper trough position this weekend into next week and
produce periodic swaths of snows. This will correspond with two
main surges of a frigid arctic airmass with much below normal
temperatures with some record values fully southward through the
central then eastern U.S.. Trough and cold air reinforcement will
interact with the lingering wavy front over the Southeast/East to
favor Piedmont/coastal rains and inland snows from the OH
Valley/Appalachians to the Northeast, though there is much
uncertainty with possible coastal storm development from the
Mid-Atlantic to Northeast late in the weekend to early next week,
but the ingredients seem present.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS supports it. Could be a rapid developer, but this setup also makes it conducive to be a hugger, or a more interior deal.

I think I’m all set with huggers ha. I’ve been asking for them for years but now I see the deform goes too far to my NW. I’ll take my chances out here with you getting the CF goods.

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