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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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12z has to be noticeably better or at the very least stop the bleed in my opinion. I guess there's still time but this hasn't been a slow drip it has been a deluge. Good luck at 12z....I guess

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1. 0z EURO still starts everyone from Route 50 north with snow.. As @MillvilleWx pointed out last night, a front end thump or at least some snow is still very much on the table depending on dews etc. 

2. All the caveats but 6z Nam and RGEM are both significantly colder at the end of their runs than the GFS and other globals at the same time. They should definitely be given more weight as we move into later today and into tomorrow. Could they possibly be on to something? 

3. I don't think this is as out of reach as other's. Get the precip to come in hot and heavy and wetbulb takes over. This isn't a super amped system. I think 1-2" from a line between dc/balt and 2-4" balt north to the md/pa border is definitely still on the table before the switch. 

4. Also, I doubt this comes any further north as we get closer to game time given the block and the setup. If anything, it should adjust south slightly. 

5. This board was a total weenie dumpster fire last night imo...haha..

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The thermal profile on the GFS gets worse every run. Verbatim 6z is close to pure rain for many now.

DT going to have to update his SECS checklist. 

Basically no favorable tele , indices, or pattern will support "significant" snow any longer in our area.  We have gone beyond bad luck. This storm if rain will be the fourth time the rug has been pulled. 

And, if the colder scenario storm on the 28 or 29 th does not deliver that's it for me. The 6z run is a sad site.       

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37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The mesos will handle the CAD better when they get in range (weenie handbook page 562 section 3 clause b)

I do my best to exude optimism, but it has to be balanced with a strong grasp of reality. 

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I don't think I saw the uk posted but it shifted south and gets at minimum some snow DC on north .It also looks a bit closer to a hit for day 6/7 then the Euro looking at 144

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

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30 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

1. 0z EURO still starts everyone from Route 50 north with snow.. As @MillvilleWx pointed out last night, a front end thump or at least some snow is still very much on the table depending on dews etc. 

2. All the caveats but 6z Nam and RGEM are both significantly colder at the end of their runs than the GFS and other globals at the same time. They should definitely be given more weight as we move into later today and into tomorrow. Could they possibly be on to something? 

3. I don't think this is as out of reach as other's. Get the precip to come in hot and heavy and wetbulb takes over. This isn't a super amped system. I think 1-2" from a line between dc/balt and 2-4" balt north to the md/pa border is definitely still on the table before the switch. 

4. Also, I doubt this comes any further north as we get closer to game time given the block and the setup. If anything, it should adjust south slightly. 

5. This board was a total weenie dumpster fire last night imo...haha..

I was sleeping like a baby for last night's runs, but looking over the guidance this morning it' seems to be slowly slipping away for the southern and eastern parts of the region. Hopefully the Euro holds it's ground and maybe improves a bit, but the latest GFS run is hot garbage for my yard.

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Just now, CAPE said:

I was sleeping like a baby for last night's runs, but looking over the guidance this morning it' seems to be slowing slipping away for the southern and eastern parts of the region. Hopefully the Euro holds it's ground and maybe improves a bit, but the latest GFS run is hot garbage for my yard.

Latest

 

image.png.1f5a5647e51b971a7f45721f98d7c9e6.png

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40 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

12z has to be noticeably better or at the very least stop the bleed in my opinion. I guess there's still time but this hasn't been a slow drip it has been a deluge. Good luck at 12z....I guess

Let's be realistic.  This is probably going to be the most important 12Z run of the season.  Hopefully the servers are up to the task of handling all the incoming browser refresh commands.  I have a lucky t-shirt that I used to wear all through college on clutch exams and it never let me down even once.  I'm thinking about dusting it off and wearing it this weekend to skew the models in our direction.

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

Latest

 

image.png.1f5a5647e51b971a7f45721f98d7c9e6.png

It seems to be holding with the front end thump idea with the colder thermal profile. That's good to see. We know how these things have tended to trend towards game time though. The goddamn worm needs to turn.

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I do my best to exude optimism, but it has to be balanced with a strong grasp of reality. 

Optimism is PSU in response to frd yesterday that there may be another window mid Feb to early March due to more SPV pummeling. 

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Just now, frd said:

Mount Holly 

 

Meh

 

weatherstory.png

The forecast for my yard implies maybe an inch of snow/sleet,  but I would be willing to bet the warm layer aloft ends up being significant enough that its just sleet, and then goes over to rain. The wave is moving too fast and dampens enough that I doubt there will be any significant frozen on the backend.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

It seems to be holding with the front end thump idea with the colder thermal profile. That's good to see. We know how these thing have tended to trend towards game time though. The goddamn worm needs to turn.

Yep, related to lower dews as mentioned by @MillvilleWx  and the colder thermal profiles you posted about. We live in a tough area. I have all my hopes set aside for later next week.  

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Optimism is PSU in response to frd yesterday that there may be another window mid Feb to early March due to more SPV pummeling. 

Cant Wait Bart Scott GIFs | Tenor

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No representation of CAD here.

Look at that boundary going West to East over long distances, a bit strange . We need a press of colder air. 

A while back I believe this was forecasted way colder. I think 

 

image.png.9e475ebfa1e18345db014cb867191218.png

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I know PSU and others have noted the different thermals on the GFS vs NAM.  Here is another look at 850s as the precip has reached Kentucky. 

All 84 hr NAM caveats aside, just hoping the slightly colder 6Z Euro and the NAM seeing more cold might be the start of positive trend for us.

GFS

373944591_Screenshot2021-01-22at7_41_42AM.png.674dc6aead73bd1614ce66dc259363ad.png

NAM795547842_Screenshot2021-01-22at7_42_10AM.png.a7508dfba64292c7187dc6aaa7134b13.png

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31 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Let's be realistic.  This is probably going to be the most important 12Z run of the season.  Hopefully the servers are up to the task of handling all the incoming browser refresh commands.  I have a lucky t-shirt that I used to wear all through college on clutch exams and it never let me down even once.  I'm thinking about dusting it off and wearing it this weekend to skew the models in our direction.

Every run seems to be the most important run of the season. 

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29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

he wave is moving too fast and dampens enough that I doubt there will be any significant frozen on the backend.

Exactly .. some brief wording from the latest Mount Holly AFD.

  

This isn`t a classic coastal low as it will be
quickly progressing further off shore once it is east of us, so
this doesn`t appear to be a system that will produce blockbuster
amounts of snow. That being said, and with the consideration of
how much uncertainty there remains with precip type, it will
likely be Saturday afternoon before we will have enough
confidence for a snow/ice/rain amount forecast that covers the
entire event.

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57 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I know PSU and others have noted the different thermals on the GFS vs NAM.  Here is another look at 850s as the precip has reached Kentucky. 

All 84 hr NAM caveats aside, just hoping the slightly colder 6Z Euro and the NAM seeing more cold might be the start of positive trend for us.

GFS

373944591_Screenshot2021-01-22at7_41_42AM.png.674dc6aead73bd1614ce66dc259363ad.png

NAM795547842_Screenshot2021-01-22at7_42_10AM.png.a7508dfba64292c7187dc6aaa7134b13.png

That’s more than a slight difference. That’s nearly 7 degrees C at my location. Amazing actually 

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NAM Is running now, I am ready to cling to its definitely inaccurate surface precip projections in the 72-84 hour range to hallucinate snow IMBY!!! But seriously that cold difference shown above for 6z would be huge to say the least for the front end thump. We need something to hold on to hope with y'all.

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1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

NAM Is running now, I am ready to cling to its definitely inaccurate surface precip projections in the 72-84 hour range to hallucinate snow IMBY!!! But seriously that cold difference shown above for 6z would be huge to say the least for the front end thump. We need something to hold on to hope with y'all.

The globals have pretty much formed a consensus or close thereto and it’s a Mason Dixon and north snow event. Would be shocked to see it shift this close to the event. 

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1 minute ago, Negnao said:

The globals have pretty much formed a consensus or close thereto and it’s a Mason Dixon and north snow event. Would be shocked to see it shift this close to the event. 

While I don't necessarily think it's likely, if you don't think a R/S line can move 50-75 miles 3+ days before an event, you've been living in a  bubble.

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15 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

NAM Is running now, I am ready to cling to its definitely inaccurate surface precip projections in the 72-84 hour range to hallucinate snow IMBY!!! But seriously that cold difference shown above for 6z would be huge to say the least for the front end thump. We need something to hold on to hope with y'all.

6z NAM was probably the coldest solution for this one. Expecting the future NAM to adjust. Could be and hope to be wrong but this is usually the way it goes with no CAD signature and more of a W->E moving overunning situ.

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13 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

While I don't necessarily think it's likely, if you don't think a R/S line can move 50-75 miles 3+ days before an event, you've been living in a  bubble.

Dc is more than 50 miles from a snow event on this one. That’s the problem. 

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24 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

NAM Is running now, I am ready to cling to its definitely inaccurate surface precip projections in the 72-84 hour range to hallucinate snow IMBY!!! But seriously that cold difference shown above for 6z would be huge to say the least for the front end thump. We need something to hold on to hope with y'all.

More ridging out ahead of the system at 57 hrs.  That's all I need to see and won't analyze the later NAM panels. 

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The NAM is much slower with getting the wave organized and moving east...and that allows cold to press in behind the northern stream low that comes across Sunday.  That suppresses the wave as it finally gets its act together to come across.  The GFS is the most extreme in the other direction where it organizes the wave so fast that by the time the NS wave clears the ridging in front is already blasting up the ohio valley and the cold comes down behind that wave not in front and on top of it.  A pretty major difference when it shows up at only about 50 hours now on the NAM.  

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

More ridging out ahead of the system at 57 hrs.  That's all I need to see and won't analyze the later NAM panels. 

lol--its hardly significant

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The NAM is much slower with getting the wave organized and moving east...and that allows cold to press in behind the northern stream low that comes across Sunday.  That suppresses the wave as it finally gets its act together to come across.  The GFS is the most extreme in the other direction where it organizes the wave so fast that by the time the NS wave clears the ridging in front is already blasting up the ohio valley and the cold comes down behind that wave not in front and on top of it.  A pretty major difference when it shows up at only about 50 hours now on the NAM.  

It's the NAM at range.

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