WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Obviously the two you want in your corner when the chips are down.

If there's one thing we excel at, it's getting cold air in place just hours before a late-winter storm when the previous days have highs near 60F.  #LockItIn

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So we've got the euro taking next Friday's snow south, GFS getting some snow in here before petering out, Para with dry cold, CMC with a harrowing R/S line through DC, and ICON with a flush hit. Honestly, a week out, not the worst signal for the possibility of something maybe lurking. If it survives the weekend, it'll be worth talking more in depth about. For now though it does not exist in my expectations.

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if the icon storm verifies...no matter what has already happened...i would call this a good winter

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

GFS shows snow monday 12z

gfs_ref_frzn_us_12.png

And then some rain. This one obviously isn’t a big deal but maybe some western folks can pick up a little something to add to their seasonal totals 

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9 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Iowa Southeast. Makes sense. 

It's a USGS map, so I'm imaging it has more to do with fault lines and tectonic plates than geography.

 

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32 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Yesterdays event was so odd even up here in NE Philly. I got like 3-4" and then crust, but I drove 15-20 minutes up route 1 here to my grandmothers who got close to 9-10" 

thank god. was worried for you all. 

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26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Obviously the two you want in your corner when the chips are down.

ICON smoked the others at range for the past storm. Don’t make me break out maps lol

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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Tilt on the shortwave looks improved on GFS so far thru 141

We can’t take you seriously until you fix your name. 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The GFS looks a lot like the ICON through 153. A little quicker with the sw. But similar for sure. 

imminent pummeling incoming. 

162 looks great to me incoming .

Nice hit for southern areas and gets couple inches to the pa  line . 

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Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times shame on GFS. Fool 146 times in one winter...

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2 hours ago, mattie g said:

Too bad we’re not in the Northeast...

:yikes:

His primary forecast area is Philly which averages like 1” more then Baltimore and half what I do. People in here act like there is some huge sudden wall that divides snow climo between DC and Philly but in reality it’s a gradual thing up the coastal plain. Baltimore does marginally better then DC and Philly marginally better then Baltimore. Once you get to northern NJ is where you hit a sharper change in snow climo.  The bigger divide in snow climo in the mid Atlantic is elevation dependent running NW of the cities. 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Central VA gets demolished this run. Perfect spot for us. :)

Not far enough south for perfect location. If the storm was tomorrow and it was there, I would then be fine.. just seems to be seasonal trends! 100+ mile shifts.. not small ones

 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

His primary forecast area is Philly which averages like 1” more then Baltimore and half what I do. People in here act like there is some huge sudden wall that divides snow climo between DC and Philly but in reality it’s a gradual thing up the coastal plain. Baltimore does marginally better then DC and Philly marginally better then Baltimore. Once you get to northern NJ is where you hit a sharper change in snow climo.  The bigger divide in snow climo in the mid Atlantic is elevation dependent running NW of the cities. 

Historically. Yes. Last few years. Definitely no. Which has created a perception.

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

His primary forecast area is Philly which averages like 1” more then Baltimore and half what I do. People in here act like there is some huge sudden wall that divides snow climo between DC and Philly but in reality it’s a gradual thing up the coastal plain. Baltimore does marginally better then DC and Philly marginally better then Baltimore. Once you get to northern NJ is where you hit a sharper change in snow climo.  The bigger divide in snow climo in the mid Atlantic is elevation dependent running NW of the cities. 

You took my post a little too seriously.

Like you, I grew up in South Jersey, so I’m very well aware of the climo up there.

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7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

You took my post a little too seriously.

Like you, I grew up in South Jersey, so I’m very well aware of the climo up there.

Way south Jersey?  I grew up in Ocean County  

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