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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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21 minutes ago, frd said:

You are going need a larger gravy ladle.  

Damn and some freshly ground black pepper. 

:grinch:

I was thinking more along the lines of, who the fucck needs gravy if you are eating a quality piece of beef.

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HH fellas...pop the cork on the blue for some blue  
Digital blue...the most sought out blue since breaking bad

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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Like you and I and some others have been saying, blocking patterns require some patience, and even then they don't always pay off. Well they normally do in a Nino, and often in a big way. Not as much in a Nina. 
We are at  the midpoint of Jan, and I believe the conventional wisdom was any snow up until now would have been gravy. Ok, so no gravy...
Someone else can continue with this metaphor.
We didn't even get our utensils

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Just now, Ji said:

We didn't even get our utensils

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

At least you got a napkin.

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34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Like you and I and some others have been saying, blocking patterns require some patience, and even then they don't always pay off. Well they normally do in a Nino, and often in a big way. Not as much in a Nina. 

We are at  the midpoint of Jan, and I believe the conventional wisdom was any snow up until now would have been gravy. Ok, so no gravy...

Someone else can continue with this metaphor.

True. But If we look at every legitimate NAO block (not just a transient bootleg ridge) during Nina’s of the past 30 years it should set the goalposts. And while I’m not expecting 2010 the fact is even in a Nina almost every blocking episode produced at least one good snowstorm. 

1996: high bar...nuff said

March 1999: several storms 

January 2000: 1 KU and 2 other storms 

Dec-March 2000/01: low bar but even that year it did snow but there is a reason that’s remembered as a disaster it was the worst underachiever ever!

Feb 2006: 1 MECS

Dec-Jan 2011: 1 MECS and a couple minor events

March 2018: 1 SECS and a couple minor events 

So it would be unheard of to get blanked even with our crap Nina climo and bad luck  

 

 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

True. But If we look at every legitimate NAO block (not just a transient bootleg ridge) during Nina’s of the past 30 years it should set the goalposts. And while I’m not expecting 2010 the fact is even in a Nina almost every blocking episode produced at least one good snowstorm. 

1996: high bar...nuff said

March 1999: several storms 

January 2000: 1 KU and 2 other storms 

Dec-March 2000/01: low bar but even that year it did snow but there is a reason that’s remembered as a disaster it was the worst underachiever ever!

Feb 2006: 1 MECS

Dec-Jan 2011: 1 MECS and a couple minor events

March 2018: 1 SECS and a couple minor events 

So it would be unheard of to get blanked even with our crap Nina climo and bad luck  

 

 

You could have stopped at TRUE. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You could have stopped at TRUE. :lol:

That wasn’t for you. Just so someone doesn’t think a Nina means blocking won’t work. Its obviously muted compared to a nino but that doesn’t mean we don’t usually snow. You know that. Just trying to stop a run of panic posts. 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

HH Day 6 Gfs 

 

 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1262800.png

24 hours ago a se ridge 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1262800 (1).png

One extreme to the other.. but an expected shift given the advertised pattern. We need something a bit in between though lol.

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

HH Day 6 Gfs . This is pretty sig  medium range changes .

 

 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1262800.png

24 hours ago a se ridge and less blocking 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1262800 (1).png

yep....means supressed instead of cutter. still no blue for you

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Tasty 

Recent EPS runs have trended stronger with Greenland blocking in the 5-10 day range again - now a 3 sigma event. There are also hints that a northern stream disturbance will be forced underneath it Days 7-10. If correct, would open door to a Mid Atlantic/Northeast winter storm.
 
 
Image
 
Image
 
Image
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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That wasn’t for you. Just so someone doesn’t think a Nina means blocking won’t work. Its obviously muted compared to a nino but that doesn’t mean we don’t usually snow. You know that. Just trying to stop a run of panic posts. 

I get it, but at some point the masses need to be able to read between the lines when something isn't stated in a perfectly explicit manner. Kinda tired of putting disclaimers/qualifiers on every post to prevent :cliff:

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

True. But If we look at every legitimate NAO block (not just a transient bootleg ridge) during Nina’s of the past 30 years it should set the goalposts. And while I’m not expecting 2010 the fact is even in a Nina almost every blocking episode produced at least one good snowstorm. 

1996: high bar...nuff said

March 1999: several storms 

January 2000: 1 KU and 2 other storms 

Dec-March 2000/01: low bar but even that year it did snow but there is a reason that’s remembered as a disaster it was the worst underachiever ever!

Feb 2006: 1 MECS

Dec-Jan 2011: 1 MECS and a couple minor events

March 2018: 1 SECS and a couple minor events 

So it would be unheard of to get blanked even with our crap Nina climo and bad luck  

 

 

Thanks for the breakdown . I'm curious though of the March 2018. I'll have to look at my records but I'm thinking I got 14 inches here from that storm and more further north . I'd think MECS not SECS but maybe I got the wrong year .

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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Happy hour mischief? Much better setup for the event the EPS was signaling 

946B8081-DB3E-42C0-BB13-8D4692516BCC.png

Tired of seeing your phone about to die.:P

You can email these images to yourself and post them here. Only takes like 30 seconds.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Thanks for the breakdown . I'm curious though of the March 2018. I'll have to look at my records but I'm thinking I got 14 inches here from that storm and more further north . I'd think MECS not SECS but maybe I got the wrong year .

I think that one was a general 6-10. I think I had 7 or so here.

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Just now, CAPE said:

I think that one was a general 6-10. I think I had 7 or so here.

The equinox storm? I got just over 7”.

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Tired of seeing your phone about to die.:P

You can email these images to yourself and post them here. Only takes like 30 seconds.

Ain’t nobody got time for that. Haha, there’s about the same odds of me plugging in my phone before bed as a 2 ft dc snowstorm. 
 

this was a solid GFS run. It looked more like the euro early on and focuses on that same wave coming out of the southwest that the EPS did

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think that one was a general 6-10. I think I had 7 or so here.

I'll have to dust off my trapper keeper and look but I'm 99% sure I got around 14" March 20th and bigger totals north . 

 

Yep...13.8" imby

Thurmont 16.5"

S.York 16-20"

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'll have to dust off my trapper keeper and look but I'm 99% sure I got around 14" March 20th and bigger totals north . 

I got 15 but never was more than 12 on the ground at one time.

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'll have to dust off my trapper keeper and look but I'm 99% sure I got around 14" March 20th and bigger totals north . 

You might be right, according to Mr faith in the flakes' lol.

March-20-and-21-Snow-Total-Map-600x435.jpg

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1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

I got 15 but never was more than 12 on the ground at one time.

I edited above . It was 12"-20 " along m/d line 

Definitely near Historic for time of year imo . But MECS for sure 

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25 minutes ago, mattie g said:

You haven’t had much rain?

Outside of the event New Years Eve/New Years Day, almost nothing

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