Thinksnow18 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 So I see we get the track we want but the storm weakens considerably...honestly this has been one of the most difficult years I can remember to get snow. If it’s not the track it’s the lack of cold air, if it’s not cold air the system cuts, if it doesn’t cut it weakens considerably. This is frustrating. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Nam is inching farther north, but is weaksauce. Rgem looks like a decent light event....general 3 to 5 inches. Won't be enough for a snow day, but will be a good topper if it materializes. The students were mentioning this week how much it stinks that we have yet to get a snow day. (The teachers agree on the inside. lol) Even with Virtual learning now a thing, my boss is firm on snow days being snow days. Absurd. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Glad you guys finally got some snow cover there too. From the snowfall reports, it looks like north of Buffalo and then areas of the Finger Lakes (like Geneva) may still have grass showing. Yeah I drove the length of Buffalo along Bailey Avenue (near the eastern border of the city), and only the most southern quarter of the city has snowcover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Our attention then turns to the next storm to potentially impact our region Monday night/Tuesday, possibly lingering into Tuesday night. 23/12Z Canadian has come back into much better agreement with a more northerly track as continues to be advertised by the 23/12Z ECMWF/GFS. Given the current scenario, the storm will track from the mid Mississippi Valley/lower Ohio Valley Monday night, then northeast through Ohio into northern Pennsylvania by Tuesday night. One of the main forecast challenges continues to be the significant weakening of this storm system as it starts to impact our region. Moisture looks fairly limited and forcing is not that impressive. Putting it all together, moisture in the form of light snow should make into southwestern NYS by the second half of Monday night, then spread across areas south of Lake Ontario on Tuesday, possibly lingering across southeastern portions of our forecast area Tuesday night. Chances for the better accumulating snows will remain toward the NY/PA line. Would still not rule out low end advisory amounts across the higher terrain well south of Buffalo. If the system tracks any further north, will have to continue to monitor trends for any p- type issues across southern areas as warmer air could make a push a bit further north if this were to occur. As of now, still appears any rain/snow mix would remain just south of the NY/PA line. Otherwise, daytime highs on Tuesday will be mainly the 20s, with some very low 30s possible across far western NY. As for lows, expect single digits and teens east of Lake Ontario, with generally low to mid 20s elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Ripping again in Skaneateles. Today is exactly one of the reasons I moved up here. Just awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 16" at base, 50" at summit. Just ideal conditions their today. Check out the cams, place is slammed. https://www.holidayvalley.com/explore/webcams/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 hours ago, wolfie09 said: This map is surprisingly quite accurate as it tough to get it that close but it looks spot on where as I have about 13-14" OTG so inching closer to the yellows, lol, and with Monday and Tuesdays event if it materializes we could be in the upper teens low 20's if any enhancement happens after the passage of the second SLP so we'll see. Thank God January is providing cause we would of been screwed otherwise but either way averages are definitely going down for 30yr avg's I would think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I guess something is better than nothing, this could if been mix/rain of it wasn't for the HP.. Rgem sends upper 30s into the southern tier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Icon gets it into southern NY and so does the navy not that those models should be trusted much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Icon isn't half bad. Give it a bit more weight than navy anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: After the next couple events gfs is back to cutters and inland storms.. This is the exact track I need and we NEVER get it lol In the 90s it was a regular occurrence..One of these days.. This is one of those tracks that if your smelling the taint ur close to mixing and your snowing at 2-3"/hr, lol! banding would be intense but of course its the LR GFS which means absolutely nothing at this juncture, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Could see a brief uptick in activity as winds start backing and sun goes down. Maybe another inch or two in a few spots. Hoping the winds stay put for awhile, into a nice band with huge flakes. At least another 2" of fluff so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 May be a long duration event south of lake ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: May be a long duration event south of lake ontario. Just measured here. 12-13" and that's probably compacted some as we had some breaks with sun earlier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Icon gets rain all the way to thruway now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gfs expanded the precip a little north verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: After the next couple events gfs is back to cutters and inland storms.. This is the exact track I need and we NEVER get it lol In the 90s it was a regular occurrence..One of these days.. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Judging by my Ring Doorbell, it looks like Irondequoit only scored a few inches. 3-4”? So I’m glad I didn’t miss a big one. Buddy in Webster got 6-8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gates got 10 Dave. I got about 7 in walworth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Pattern looks like its changing. Going to be getting alot of west coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just got the call that we got the house!!! Hopefully by the time we close on it winter will be over but if we close end of March/early April it’ll probably be a snowstorm with our luck! Looking forward to enjoying what BuffaloWeather enjoys instead of sitting 15 miles north staring off at the tall billowing gray clouds just to the south while I’m basking in the slightly warm glow of sunshine on an otherwise frigid day! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Just got the call that we got the house!!! Hopefully by the time we close on it winter will be over but if we close end of March/early April it’ll probably be a snowstorm with our luck! Looking forward to enjoying what BuffaloWeather enjoys instead of sitting 15 miles north staring off at the tall billowing gray clouds just to the south while I’m basking in the slightly warm glow of sunshine on an otherwise frigid day! Congrats man!! Welcome to the triple digits club lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Just got the call that we got the house!!! Hopefully by the time we close on it winter will be over but if we close end of March/early April it’ll probably be a snowstorm with our luck! Looking forward to enjoying what BuffaloWeather enjoys instead of sitting 15 miles north staring off at the tall billowing gray clouds just to the south while I’m basking in the slightly warm glow of sunshine on an otherwise frigid day! Congrats! I'm excited for you! What point of reference are you near? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 38 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Lock it in. That would make up for a lot of sins this winter... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 41 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs expanded the precip a little north verbatim.. You mean GFS was way too S&E yet again? Shocked I am, shocked! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Miller B season on the gfs..Seems every storm heads inland before hitting a roadblock lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Well para is back in business and does not disappoint lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z Ggem much more muted.. We haven't had many"super" dink and dunk events (2/4-3/5) actually I haven't had one lol Hopefully enough precipitation makes it up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Gates got 10 Dave. I got about 7 in walworth Come on man. Are my measurement garbage or something? 5.5 storm total with 5 on the ground as of 6pm in gates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Well north gates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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