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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Plenty of RAIN to come by early February. Let's go Leprechauns ....marching into March
Forget about it all is lost for the MA

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Plenty of RAIN to come by early February. Let's go Leprechauns ....marching into March
Forget about it all is lost for the MA

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk


Wow horrid run

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Wettest 24hr period on the 0z GEFS

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-precip_24hr_inch-1900000.thumb.png.987b1c5f0d0a671ea3f2b62cc22f9508.png

vs wettest 24hr period on the 18z GEFS

1834673597_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-precip_24hr_inch-1867600(1).thumb.png.f252ca9784d77039cce9affba9cfa9e2.png

You get the picture. Certainly no south trend on the GEFS.

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Ouch. This looks familiar 
snku_acc.us_ma.thumb.png.03af1a6b777a722bb57b4136381f14b7.png
Silver lining to if this verifies is that maybe it staves off the effects of a southeast ridge for a few days? We've seemed to fail with everything else so maybe if we pre-chill our warm sectors we can come up with something.

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7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Wettest 24hr period on the 0z GEFS

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-precip_24hr_inch-1900000.thumb.png.987b1c5f0d0a671ea3f2b62cc22f9508.png

vs wettest 24hr period on the 18z GEFS

1834673597_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-precip_24hr_inch-1867600(1).thumb.png.f252ca9784d77039cce9affba9cfa9e2.png

You get the picture. Certainly no south trend on the GEFS.

4BA79CE4-4FFF-4FDC-B261-31348F1F7F0B.thumb.jpeg.15b0c2600951342e6c9664115b6bfd09.jpeg
10E9514D-FB52-47DA-9183-609137004FCF.jpeg.390965fb9fac3b29a5a8cb9472caba86.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

4BA79CE4-4FFF-4FDC-B261-31348F1F7F0B.thumb.jpeg.15b0c2600951342e6c9664115b6bfd09.jpeg
10E9514D-FB52-47DA-9183-609137004FCF.jpeg.390965fb9fac3b29a5a8cb9472caba86.jpeg

That's actually pretty great agreement lol, I'd imagine that the 18z EPS looked juicier because it had more members subscribing to that idea, while the GEFS is straying from going away from it's op. In terms of an actual big hit in NC like what the op showed, I could only see one run that had an actual decent swath of snow and hit that far south. Far more had no storm at all compared to that, or a storm but it jackpotted us or Central VA, or a super weak storm that dotted snow into NC/VA. Getting near that hr 150 threshold too so hoping more members pick up on the storm. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Euro looking kinda weak this run. :(

Yep...To think we might end up getting blanked snow-wise next week...wow. Gotta hope and pray we can have another chance in February.

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

it was better then last run lol.  But really want to go crazy...the TPV lobe that was supposed to slide across in front of the monday wave and help suppress the flow over top of that wave...and keep it from cutting...slowed down sooo much that not only did it allow that Monday wave to get out in front of it and drive north but its still around and compressing the flow over the top of the storm later in the week.  LOL  

Block working the wrong way.

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

What a night.  Almost that time...

what time? throwing in the towel ?

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27 minutes ago, IronTy said:

New way to fail.  Now it's the DC snow parallelogram.  We've reached geometric failure. 

gfs-deterministic-ma-total_snow_10to1-2310400.png

Seems like a slight move north for the 28th maybe.

 

Screenshot_20210122-062320_Chrome.jpg

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Is the clustering of strong lows near VA Beach here on the GEFS a reflection of an interted trof behind the main low? UL energy spinning up another slp? Or is there a small glimmer of hope here still with a much slower system as the tpv lobe over Lake Ontario retrogrades and dives into and phases with the system?

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_28.png

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Will comes in clutch.  We’re back baby!  

We need % maps and snowfall means on the eps. Wouldn't mind seeing the updated 46-day totals too. These are generally accurate.

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Will comes in clutch.  We’re back baby!  

Hope we can score on Thursday. Monday's on life support. 

Would be quite the gut punch to miss to the north on Monday then south on Thursday.

Guess that's how we roll around here though lol.

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14 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Hope we can score on Thursday. Monday's on life support. 

Would be quite the gut punch to miss to the north on Monday then south on Thursday.

Guess that's how we roll around here though lol.

The 0z GFS op would be historic for parts of NC and that is why I believe the outcome will not verify. Eric Web mentioned it has been over 40 years  since Fayetteville has seen a storm deliver 8 inches of more of snow.  Been 65 years for a 12 inch event there. No one should write off the event near the 29 th yet.   

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the ensembles look really good but when will that show the OP. the ensembles would make me pretty nervous if i lived in NC. not many good hits. this may be our last chance this winter folks

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2 hours ago, IronTy said:

New way to fail.  Now it's the DC snow parallelogram.  We've reached geometric failure. 

gfs-deterministic-ma-total_snow_10to1-2310400.png

Looks like Justin Tuckers two kicks from last Saturday's game.  Left post, right post.

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6z Eps looks more favorable at h5 for Day 6/7 . Higher hieghts out  in front and stronger ssw along with deeper trough  . More members probably turn the corner a bit . 

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The off hour EPS runs are still barely out of range (I completely forgot the storm is still 6 days out until seeing this), but it seems like the EPS is insistent on a good slug of moisture. Here's the last panel of the run

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1813600.thumb.png.0b283bae21ea09f55fbf4e23239563fd.png

6z GEFS looks pretty similar at this time too, and that certainly didn't have a North Carolina jackpot look on it's means

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1813600.thumb.png.41b2bd3f2db20db62346caa8643bb977.png

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The off our EPS runs are still barely out of range (I completely forgot the storm is still 6 days out until seeing this), but it seems like the EPS is insistent on a good slug of moisture. Here's the last panel of the run

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1813600.thumb.png.0b283bae21ea09f55fbf4e23239563fd.png

6z GEFS looks pretty similar at this time too, and that certainly didn't have a North Carolina jackpot look on it's means

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1813600.thumb.png.41b2bd3f2db20db62346caa8643bb977.png

Eps definitely looks better then the Gefs at h5....And 6z Gefs had some nice hits 

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