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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Consider the 850s during the heaviest part of the storm. The 850s get even colder after the low pulls offshore a bit (still snowing though). This certainly wouldnt be 10:1, especially for the elevated areas and places where their average ratios are already 12:1 or more.

ecmwf-deterministic-dc-t850-1856800.thumb.png.bc41aee1a7b0ca177da7d08eb5117539.png

Seen too many Joe D kuchera maps at weatherbell to take seriously...but I won't hate on that if it verifies.  

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9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Reminds me more of 1996.  

Haha every time a model spits out decent snow it doesn’t have to be compared to 96 fellas....was 79 pd1 I’m blanking out. Was it that small angry small closed off ULL that crushed dc? If so yeah it has more similarities to that.

EFCCF727-CC22-48DB-B754-068673BFECB5.png

977D0E77-4B91-49E9-926C-BA23D4FE9C0E.gif

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Josh would chase this thing if it were over land.

QGWvLwP.gif

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

Josh would chase this thing if it were over land.

QGWvLwP.gif

What causes this from continuing NE or even getting  captured rather than diving ESE off of Hatteras?

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23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wish that was farther W and crawling the coast but given it is progged to keep trucking E could still pack a quick punch with those dynamics in the Mid Atlantic and near the coast.

Moving this from the “wrong” thread lol. 
 

Like I said last night this setup reminds me of PD1. Now that was a max anomalous outcome so that doesn’t mean we get that exact outcome. But I expect models are underestimating the intensity of lift along the inverted trough as it slams into the confluence from the block.  If that setup holds there will be some pretty good banding stretched NW along the trough from the surface low.  It will hit a brick wall though somewhere. My guess is Philly ends up ok but it’s close...any further north though...:yikes:

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What causes this from continuing NE or even getting  captured rather than diving ESE off of Hatteras?

Retrograding ridge as HM pointed out

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

So EMT class has sucked me into a black hole. Are there 2 threats for next week...Monday and Thursday?

Yes. Monday threat is in its own thread

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can we change the name of this thread to the Jan 28 thread since the Jan 25 already has one and this is the only other event in the the day 1-7 window lol

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

So EMT class has sucked me into a black hole. Are there 2 threats for next week...Monday and Thursday?

Yes, Monday is likely some slop fest that will disappoint most. Thursday screams big potential.

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9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

This threat looks nice.  Temps are good and the heaviest stuff would come through during the day.  Please oh lordy let us have this one. 

Why just one? You’re allowed to ask for both the appetizer and the main course. ;)

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30 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yes, Monday is likely some slop fest that will disappoint most. Thursday screams big potential.

Ah, so big bust potential then. Classic. Here's to snow :snowing:

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2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Any word on 12z EPS for the second threat? 

Haven't seen anything but I would imagine that if things bust colder for the first event it would help reinforce the colder air for wave #2.

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9 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Any word on 12z EPS for the second threat? 

EPS looks great for the 1/28 threat.  Also a signal for 2/1-2/2.  
 

 

E6097EF4-14E7-4A7E-A470-33154B8BD9C7.png

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

EPS looks great for the 1/28 threat.  Also a signal for 2/1-2/2.  
 

 

E6097EF4-14E7-4A7E-A470-33154B8BD9C7.png

Wow that does look nice.  I am much more interested in this threat.  Of course I would enjoy 1-3 inches on the early week threat too but the ceiling here appears to be higher. 

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Assume what falls on Monday and Tuesday if snow/ice hangs around until the next storm chance? White on white crime?

That's Level II on the Eskimo Joe Snow Pyramid of Success™.

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

can we change the name of this thread to the Jan 28 thread since the Jan 25 already has one and this is the only other event in the the day 1-7 window lol

We could probably use a new thread to discuss what to title the new threat thread. Save the banter thread for bs. New thread naming is serious stuff and God knows we don't have enough threads.

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Didn't we have a whole page discussing the control run yesterday?  We're slipping.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-ma-snow_48hr-1900000.png

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7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Didn't we have a whole page discussing the control run yesterday?  We're slipping.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-ma-snow_48hr-1900000.png

Get that porn for center VA out of here! Dam my eyes are hurting :lmao:

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Little too much confluence on the 18z GFS for the thursday storm, BUT there is better PNA ridging (further west, taller ridge by a good 100 miles or so).

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