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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Jackpot and at the 150hr threshold! 

Onset is 138hrs, within 6 days! Still feels like an eternity considering how much models have liked to drop storms, but we might have momentum on our side, given that the GEFS got closer to a Euro solution, Canadian has stayed solid, and so has the Euro/EPS. 

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The gfs gets a chance 2 cave twice now before the European runs again.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

The gfs gets a chance 2 cave twice now before the European runs again.

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We're basically in 144hr EPS range, so that 6z EPS also gets a chance to gave to the gfs too ;)

 

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The icon 6z looks like it's going to cave to the European. Much less ns....less ridging

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

The icon 6z looks like it's going to cave to the European. Much less ns....less ridging

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I’m not buying any snow solution at this point.  Way to many rugs pulled in my life..and yours. 

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I’m not buying any snow solution at this point.  Way to many rugs pulled in my life..and yours. 
Yes best to be skeptical but at some point it's going to snow again in our lifetime

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I think gfs might cave too somewhat but it's early

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think gfs might cave too somewhat but it's early

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It does look less ridge-y

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It does look less ridge-y
Maybe not be a total cave but the ns looks very different than 00z

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Just now, Ji said:

emoji6.png

 

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b5bfab5852fdf27053725378abd57f25.jpg

Well well well...Euro takes the wheel.  

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Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS caving toward the euro/cmc solution.    definitely much different than 0z

Indeed.  NS is failing faster than my liver 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS caving toward the euro/cmc solution.    definitely much different than 0z

For next week or the snow on snow storm following?

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It's a big cave but it can still improve. It does look like there was enough shredding to weaken it from the ns but huge win nonetheless

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The icon was going to blast us imo but the run ended smh

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Para caved too but now we need a one more caving. To be as snowy as euro

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6z GEFS mean implies a damping wave with weaker surface reflection as it moves east, compared to 0z. Pretty much supports the look on the op.

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EPS has been very steady. Nice to see that continue at 0z. Getting close to being real. Main southern shortwave is onshore in about 72hrs.

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