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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

There was indeed a fairly strong pushback from people on the forecasts...forecasts which ended up being underdone for most.  I was told by one client that it never snows 30" in Virginia. 

I believe it! I just meant that the models didn't offer much alternative to the forecast. No real choice on which "camp" to pick. Obviously I'm not going to say it'll snow 24" when the storm is 5 days away, but every day we got closer and the big runs just kept coming. This is opposed to most of our storms where we wait for a camp to cave.

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

No doubt.  Under forecast is always the safe bet. But some people were convinced it would be under a foot which was too far under. 

East of I-95 would've busted low had the CCB not been so beefy. I remember the justified gnashing of teeth for the Annapolis and St. Mary's crew on Saturday when the sun was poking out while the usual crew was jackpotting.

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Just looked at the Euro completely ( I know late to the party) but it literally starts Sunday evening and doesn't taper off till Tuesday evening :D

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6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I recall the euro kept putting those insane amounts in N VA around 180 hours out. It may have had a run or 2 where it was south because I remember sitting here in Philly worrying about being fringed a few times, but over and over the signal was there for ccb snows in that region. Wasn’t until the NAM came in range that snow chances increased into Philly burbs and nyc...this is two euro runs in a row with a heavy area over N VA let’s start a trend 

I remember 2016 Harrisburg was forecast to get like 6 inches up to maybe 30 hours or 24 hours out and broke there alltime record with like 30" 

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That 2016 storm was too stressful. It locked in way too soon which meant 8 days of model runs worrying was the rug getting pulled. I’d rather something we’re keeping an eye on trend better closer in. But guidance has become really good inside day 5 now. Not saying things don’t shift and details don’t change but if something doesn’t at least look promising at day 5 it’s harder for it to become a hecs then in the past.   

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I remember 2016 Harrisburg was forecast to get like 6 inches up to maybe 30 hours or 24 hours out and broke there alltime record with like 30" 

If the storm is amplifying and gaining latitude the northern extent of heavy snow will always be under represented. This doesn’t work if a storm is shearing out or sinking south/not gaining latitude. But with an amplified wave gaining latitude always adjust the northern edge north at the end.  

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41 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I'm actually going to your neck of the woods early (this saturday) to be there for this storm.  I'm going with climo.  I think we'll be in a sweet spot.  There is always secondary banding on the periphery.  EZF isn't jacking lol

Come on out for a pregame stout- fest around my firepit.  Bring Clskinsfan and Winterwxluvr with you.  Lol.

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Just looked at the Euro completely ( I know late to the party) but it literally starts Sunday evening and doesn't taper off till Tuesday evening :D

Even though it’s farther north gfs was long duration too. It’s definitely a legit signal hard to ignore.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

If the storm is amplifying and gaining latitude the northern extent of heavy snow will always be under represented. This doesn’t work if a storm is shearing out or sinking south/not gaining latitude. But with am amplified wave gaining latitude always adjust the northern edge north at the end.  

Absolutely.  That's when it's fun times

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16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I remember 2016 Harrisburg was forecast to get like 6 inches up to maybe 30 hours or 24 hours out and broke there alltime record with like 30" 

If I remember correctly, which I may not be, the Nam had the handle on this one in showing a more Northern extent to the extreme snow.  But for some of those PA areas this was on the level of the Jan 2000 surprise.  

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19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

How much snow is a BECS?  Have we established that?  

More than HECS but less than a ZJ

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

More than HECS but less than a ZJ

The Euro was epic for us.  Best I have ever seen.  

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All I know is...this was the 108hr GEFS for our Thursday event.  With a mean over 7”.  I don’t care what they show until they prove us otherwise. What’s that word...TREND

36C76758-6D79-4E49-91C8-267C9BAA4CDD.png

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19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Just looked at the Euro completely ( I know late to the party) but it literally starts Sunday evening and doesn't taper off till Tuesday evening :D

We wake up two mornings in a row with the same weather. Think that's fitting for a groundhog day blizzard.

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

One step away from Enhanced

image.thumb.png.c9169a70cf374aa1cb01787894713849.png

This irritates me. This is not a low-tier potential impact storm. If the point of this matrix is to actually show potential impact, it's at LEAST mid-tier. Euro not withstanding 

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Just now, Amped said:

We wake up two mornings in a row with the same weather. Think that's fitting for a groundhog day blizzard.

1996. Started on a Saturday evening.  I remember watching the weather channel radar with the snow creeping north so slowly. Woke up on Sunday morning to Heavy snow.  Snowed all day. Woke up Monday morning and still snowing thanks to a perfect upper level pass. What a perfect storm. Ended up with over 30" in Northern Fredrick county MD.

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My favorite winter weekend of all time.  Stayed up with TWC all night.  Drank Coronas and ate chocolate chip cookies.  Airport here at RIC said we got like 11", I measured 21" at my apartment.  Ah, memories.  

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10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

1996. Started on a Saturday evening.  I remember watching the weather channel radar with the snow creeping north so slowly. Woke up on Sunday morning to Heavy snow.  Snowed all day. Woke up Monday morning and still snowing thanks to a perfect upper level pass. What a perfect storm. Ended up with over 30" in Northern Fredrick county MD.

Top 4 storm imo . 30-33" 

 

5 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

Did the 18z euro that goes up to 90 hours give any clues. How does it compare to 12z euro at 96 hours. More Suppression in the NE? less? Shortwave out west more amplified or less?

Very similar.  NE core of 50/50 ish low is a bit east . Hieghts out in front of our ssw a bit higher .

Looks on track for another hit me

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8 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

This irritates me. This is not a low-tier potential impact storm. If the point of this matrix is to actually show potential impact, it's at LEAST mid-tier. Euro not withstanding 

Just because one model shows an historical storm doesn’t mean they should elevate it risk any higher. What happens tonight if it disappears. The general population uses these graphics and you cannot have wild swings on them based on one model run.  

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1 hour ago, Deck Pic said:

I'm actually going to your neck of the woods early (this saturday) to be there for this storm.  I'm going with climo.  I think we'll be in a sweet spot.  There is always secondary banding on the periphery.  EZF isn't jacking lol

yes, that setup is classic for us. glad you'll be in our obs subset for the storm.

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41 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

How much snow is a BECS?  Have we established that?  

I think in Washington DC proper, it's this...  Maybe a tad different in Baltimore and suburbs north and west

SECS -- 4 to 12

MECS -- 12 to 18

HECS 18 to 30

BECS 30 Plus

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