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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Just now, mattie g said:

My name isn't Andy.

No, you're Matt(ie). You may see 30", he won't. Rose Hill is sub-sea level with temps at least 10 above everyone else. 

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9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

"I have seen with mine very own Eyes a wondrous Prognostication by the European Model for a winter Snow of such Significance that I can hardly describe in Words the Elation that it has elicited within myself."

- Thomas Jefferson, January 20, 1772

Wow the 1772 storm has been invoked, reality can only disappoint now.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Baby...that's exactly what I'm saying.   I know this is shocking, but you have to consider that possibility.  

I cannot consider it.  It has never happened before.  Why would we be tricked this time?  What have we done to deserve such foul treatment?

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

No, you're Matt(ie). You may see 30", he won't. Rose Hill is sub-sea level with temps at least 10 above everyone else. 

This is just spite and bitterness for being too far north this one model run.  You are just mad that DCA had more snow than you last night.  

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I just actually looked at the euro run on my computer now for the first time.  My God that's just perfection.  And cold leading into the storm!  

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2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Wow the 1772 storm has been invoked, reality can only disappoint now.

The Younger Dryas had some whoppers like this

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So we need the GFS to start getting its act together so we get the consensus on a big dog! 
 
 
It takes 6 cycles apparently

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

I just actually looked at the euro run on my computer now for the first time.  My God that's just perfection.  And cold leading into the storm!  

Yea that's a big plus.

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

This is just spite and bitterness for being too far north this one model run.  You are just mad that DCA had more snow than you last night.  

Is DCA's snow still on the ground right now? Mine still is. 

seriously though, Euro was beautiful for you, hope it works out. 

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Just now, RedSky said:

The Younger Dryas had some whoppers like this

Need to buy some futures in wood to build string instruments.

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10 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

It has trended South the last 3 Runs of the Euro.  Why would you think its locked in?   All Models trended south for the Thursday Event.  Euro is the only model that had it locked down and even that trended south some.

Ahhhh, you're from Richmond. That explains it.

But yes, for sure, there are sound meteorological reasons why this storm, still 5+ days away, will "bump south" a couple times, right into your own backyard, then "lock it in."

I can identify no flaws in your analysis.

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30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z is PERFECT. :P

It is...if we assume there is NO further south adjustment.  That’s very possible we’re about the range the euro locked into roughly the final outcome for the last few waves. And there are reasons this won’t be as suppressed. Frankly Thursday wouldn’t have been if not for some really bad luck wrt timing those 2 discreet vorts  in front and on top.  We see no such countermanding features this time.  But it’s hard to ignore the seasonal trend. That and this is just my jam. Fear the fringe!  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is...if we assume there is NO further south adjustment.  That’s very possible we’re about the range the euro locked into roughly the final outcome for the last few waves. And there are reasons this won’t be as suppressed. Frankly Thursday wouldn’t have been if not for some really bad luck wrt timing those 2 discreet vorts  in front and on top.  We see no such countermanding features this time.  But it’s hard to ignore the seasonal trend. That and this is just my jam. Fear the fringe!  

So I guess at 0z we just wanna see a hold? Oh dear...don't get invested, don't get invested, don't get invested....ahh!

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5 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Ahhhh, you're from Richmond. That explains it.

But yes, for sure, there are sound meteorological reasons why this storm, still 5+ days away, will "bump south" a couple times, right into your own backyard, then "lock it in."

I can identify no flaws in your analysis.

Us Mid-Atlantic weenies are very protective of our back yards.

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I just actually looked at the euro run on my computer now for the first time.  My God that's just perfection.  And cold leading into the storm!  

Lovely bifurcation of the mid-level flow! The resulting confluence promotes anticyclogenesis south of James Bay and cold-air damming into the mid-Atlantic.

500hv.conus.thumb.png.bd20096e5cc3734d32bab93eea39da74.png

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1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

Ahhhh, you're from Richmond. That explains it.

But yes, for sure, there are sound meteorological reasons why this storm, still 5+ days away, will "bump south" a couple times, right into your own backyard, then "lock it in."

I can identify no flaws in your analysis.

Not Wishing or Expecting it to bullseye my back yard.  Just look at the trend in this model and look at the trend in all models over the last week.  Also I'm not in Richmond.  I dont give a Sh*t what the GFS or its ensembles show for this week after its performance lately.

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1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

Not Wishing or Expecting it to bullseye my back yard.  Just look at the trend in this model and look at the trend in all models over the last week.  Also I'm not in Richmond.  I dont give a Sh*t what the GFS or its ensembles show for this week after its performance lately.

Yeh man tell that bum you don’t need to wish it south. I’m doing plenty of that myself:drunk:

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when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting?

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Just now, Ji said:

when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting?

That ship has sailed. The bus is already packed and rolling.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting?

Am I wrong that our biggest storms are generally modeled this far out?  We never get a huge storm that pops up 96 hours before.  If this has happened, I haven't seen it.  I know we have had the rug pulled too many times to count, but... 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting?

NAM range for onset of WAA might make sense.. by then the track before costal is pretty set and then the details that'll come into med/short range will just be the stuff after. Got a long 24-48hrs to go!

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2016 was the last time we saw this level of agreement in the eps at this range. Even the control looks like a carbon copy wrt axis of snow as the eps mean. Uncanny 

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Lets get two more runs of Euro and EPS and if results are similar I think its time to take this very seriously.  Agree with PSU that the agreement on the EPS is unreal.

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

when do we start taking this storm seriously? I would say if it surives through tomorrow night at 00z(that would be 3 more runs)...its time to maybe start forecasting?

You going to tease up your FB followers?

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