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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s brand new guys...can’t pull the plug on her lmao. Sorry for ginxing it guys...thought I’d be riding it by now.  We wait. We patient. 

If there were any decent used sled deals out there I would think about picking one up while we are still under the the Wolfie Winter Curse.  I wouldn't get any of the blame and I wouldn't curse what could be a decent winter.

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48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This has probably been the most boring and unremarkable winter month that I can recall in a very long time. I mean , last season was memorable for the warmth.....over what will be a month next week? One warm cutter, otherwise, complete and utter meteorological ennui. Not much precipitation, not particularly cold, not particularly mild. Its been an absolute clinic in boredom from mother nature. Se may have fallen asleep herself at the wheel.

36-42F and partly cloudy during the days.

22-32F at night.  

Yawn.

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Tornado upper air analysis from when Jesus walked the earth...yup, it’s been a big winter in NewEng.

Tornadoes are like football season, you can discuss it year round 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Go start a severe thread.

Uggh that’d doom the whole severe season with my luck 

Edit: won’t clutter up this thread any more about this lol 

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like not having any arctic air around has inhibited storm development.

Lack of baroclinicity can definitely be a detriment to storm development. Storms love to form on boundaries and we've had a very weak temp gradient between NNE and the lower mid-atlantic during much of the past 2 weeks.

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Hey Will ... I bet if we could do some sort of discriminative phase analysis of that 366 hour, 12z operational GFS ...those to meso-beta scaled cyclones ( one near Boston Light, the other SW of NS) might actually bear resemblance of "Arctic lows" - or polar lows ... two of them no less!  That's gotta be what those are considering the total synoptic parameterization leading/during... 

That's amazing if bears out because I don't know if I've ever seen a global numerical guidance source actually depict that phenomenon - 

polarL.thumb.jpg.1b2a971e17dcc6a5e549c2f6d9adb2a2.jpg

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/2/bams-d-18-0103.1.xml

WHAT IS A POLAR LOW?

A definition of a polar low was given by the European Polar Low Working Group in 1994 (see Heinemann and Claud 1997): the term “polar mesoscale cyclone” (polar mesocyclone) is the generic term for all meso-α- and meso-β-scale cyclonic vortices poleward of the main polar front (horizontal scale of 20–2,000 km). The term “polar low” should be used for intense maritime mesocyclones with scales up to about 1,000 km with a near-surface wind speed exceeding 15 m s–1.

 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lack of baroclinicity can definitely be a detriment to storm development. Storms love to form on boundaries and we've had a very weak temp gradient between NNE and the lower mid-atlantic during much of the past 2 weeks.

I think that Dec event likely availed of that brief arctic intrusion....if we hadn't had that, I doubt that band would have been as intense.

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Will ... I bet if we could do some sort of discriminative phase analysis of that 366 hour, 12z operational GFS ...those to meso-beta scaled cyclones ( one near Boston Light, the other SW of NS) might actually bear resemblance of "Arctic lows" - or polar lows ... two of them no less!  That's gotta be what those are considering the total synoptic parameterization leading/during... 

That's amazing if bears out because I don't know if I've ever seen a global numerical guidance source actually depict that phenomenon - 

polarL.thumb.jpg.1b2a971e17dcc6a5e549c2f6d9adb2a2.jpg

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/2/bams-d-18-0103.1.xml

WHAT IS A POLAR LOW?

A definition of a polar low was given by the European Polar Low Working Group in 1994 (see Heinemann and Claud 1997): the term “polar mesoscale cyclone” (polar mesocyclone) is the generic term for all meso-α- and meso-β-scale cyclonic vortices poleward of the main polar front (horizontal scale of 20–2,000 km). The term “polar low” should be used for intense maritime mesocyclones with scales up to about 1,000 km with a near-surface wind speed exceeding 15 m s–1.

 

This is amazing, remember learning about them in met school. Fun post. I do think day 8-15 time frame looks juicy 

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Will ... I bet if we could do some sort of discriminative phase analysis of that 366 hour, 12z operational GFS ...those to meso-beta scaled cyclones ( one near Boston Light, the other SW of NS) might actually bear resemblance of "Arctic lows" - or polar lows ... two of them no less!  That's gotta be what those are considering the total synoptic parameterization leading/during... 

That's amazing if bears out because I don't know if I've ever seen a global numerical guidance source actually depict that phenomenon - 

polarL.thumb.jpg.1b2a971e17dcc6a5e549c2f6d9adb2a2.jpg

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/2/bams-d-18-0103.1.xml

WHAT IS A POLAR LOW?

A definition of a polar low was given by the European Polar Low Working Group in 1994 (see Heinemann and Claud 1997): the term “polar mesoscale cyclone” (polar mesocyclone) is the generic term for all meso-α- and meso-β-scale cyclonic vortices poleward of the main polar front (horizontal scale of 20–2,000 km). The term “polar low” should be used for intense maritime mesocyclones with scales up to about 1,000 km with a near-surface wind speed exceeding 15 m s–1.

 

James..is that you?

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

The 2/16/15 deal had a low develop within very low thicknesses too. Back when we had man winters.

What about that early Jan 2018 deal?  

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Was that the mid level magic event?

Yep. When Cantore blew his pants off, on air.  Not sure that qualifies as a polar low, but that had to be "coldest" type of low I could think of. 

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1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

What about that early Jan 2018 deal?  

That was typical cyclogenesis, well more like bombogenesis. You had a good baroclinic zone.

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When that initial band pivoted in (same band that gave Cantore all that TSSN in PYM), that was probably the most insane snows I've driven in. I had to literally drive next to the guardrail on the expressway so that I knew when the road was turning. Literally choking snows for a brief time.

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1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Perfect!  I just wish I could find my Significant Tornadoes” book in my house somewhere. That’s an awesome way to kill a few hours or when the climate is boring 

I need to buy that book and the KU books...I'm actually going to do that tonight...at least the KU books. The significant Tornadoes book I think is hard to find and quite expensive...at least when I checked several years ago.

58 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

May i also suggest Tornado by Polk Laffoon (yes that’s a real name) and Tornado Watch 211 for some more good reading 

Thanks!

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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. When Cantore blew his pants off, on air.  Not sure that qualifies as a polar low, but that had to be "coldest" type of low I could think of. 

 

Feb15_5amRadar.gif

Feb15_619amRadar.gif

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Yeah that 40+DBZ stuff. Holy shit. That was incredible. Had to work that day and when I finally got in, that's when Cantore was flipping out lol. I got up at 4am to head in, looked at radar and said holy f*ck. Raced out to try and at least beat some of that. 

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I remember getting thundersnow during that. Was playing outside in the snow with lightning. I think I was outside for like 3-4 hours. I made the mistake of taking a hot bath right when going inside. Ouch

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