moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Hmmm. That’s a good question. Am I technically SE MA? I have no idea what you'd call Westborough. Just NW of the Pike/495 interchange. Regardless, it's not as snowing as Pit2, GC, or ORH. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Where is this warming event being observed - what source. How is it being defined. Good time to drop this link in http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php?im=3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Henry's Weather Posted December 29, 2020 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good timing because I was just thinking that I'm done with this winter until a major snow event is imminent. eh, is it truly major though? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2020 28 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I have no idea what you'd call Westborough. Just NW of the Pike/495 interchange. Regardless, it's not as snowing as Pit2, GC, or ORH. That’s easy. Blackstone River Valley 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 I didn't see the Ukie posted 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s easy. Blackstone River Valley Assabet River. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Assabet River. Whatever river he’s near.. he’s in that valley Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Assabet River. Nice name Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2020 34 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: eh, is it truly major though? Underdog that it will end up a big storm, but can't rule it out. Marginal airmass (though at least it appears better than 12/5 as modeled) and a lot of shortwaves in the flow don't allow for much margin. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Henry's Weather Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Underdog that it will end up a big storm, but can't rule it out. Marginal airmass (though at least it appears better than 12/5 as modeled) and a lot of shortwaves in the flow don't allow for much margin. I was poking fun at Ray's definition of major, but what you said makes sense. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Nice name https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assabet_River Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2020 38 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: eh, is it truly major though? TBD Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Underdog that it will end up a big storm, but can't rule it out. Marginal airmass (though at least it appears better than 12/5 as modeled) and a lot of shortwaves in the flow don't allow for much margin. EPS lit up today for day 5 and beyond 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2020 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS lit up today for day 5 and beyond They are a little more bullish on a Davis Strait block...and we will need it for sure the first 10 days of the month with the garbage PAC. Hopefully a better PAC materializes beyond that. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leo2000 Posted December 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Where is this warming event being observed - what source. How is it being defined. It is coming from Siberia it's called a Siberian SSW. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2020 47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS lit up today for day 5 and beyond Seems like the snow starts melting quickly next week . 40’s every day? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Scooter went from farting in everyone’s face this morning to posting about snowstorms in mid Atlantic. Absolutely stunning turn of events in a few short hours. Antonio Davis to Paul Kocin ... in the blink of an eye. How many IPAs in? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2020 1 minute ago, leo2000 said: It is coming from Siberia it's called a Siberian SSW. Is this going to cause a “True Split” of the Polar Vortex? Or is this just another situation where it takes some big jabs and then reconsolidates? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leo2000 Posted December 29, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Is this going to cause a “True Split” of the Polar Vortex? Or is this just another situation where it takes some big jabs and then reconsolidates? it is very very unlikely to reconsolidate it is taking massive hits. Sudden stratospheric warming is underway! Here's a selection of radiosonde ascents from Russia & Mongolia at 12Z today, which captured the warming in the mid-stratosphere. http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html… Replying to @SimonLeeWx If the ECMWF is correct, we have good conditions for a SSW with downward impact! European blocking is the best precursor for a NAO- response (see https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020… with @cgrams_lsdp and L. Papritz), and it's predicted for the first week of January! https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-regime-probabilities?forecast_from=latest… 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
qg_omega Posted December 29, 2020 Record warmth for the first two weeks of January is on the table 1 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2020 1 minute ago, leo2000 said: it is very very unlikely to reconsolidate it is taking massive hits. So this might be the real deal as far as a real split goes this time then...? Hopefully if it does split, we get some of the affects on our side of the pole/globe also? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leo2000 Posted December 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So this might be the real deal as far as a real split goes this time then...? Hopefully if it does split, we get some of the affects on our side of the pole/globe also? Yes it looks like it for real this now. Two weeks after a SSW peaks (in the Siberian cases, only) This information and model is from Met Michael Ventrice on Twitter. He is also doesn't have a weenie bias. He calls it how he sees it. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How many IPAs in? You’ve been downright mean to some people here and Twitter the last few days. Hate to see it . I truly hope you get snow on Sunday night. You need it Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’ve been downright mean to some people here and Twitter the last few days. Hate to see it . I truly hope you get snow on Sunday night. You need it What a clown. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2020 Para gfs is nice 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dmillz25 Posted December 29, 2020 23 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Record warmth for the first two weeks of January is on the table Que? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Que? He might have been issuing a forecast for the Davis Strait or northern Quebec. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
qg_omega Posted December 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He might have been issuing a forecast for the Davis Strait or northern Quebec. lol for the Northeast, looks like +8 first two weeks to start the new year. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wentzadelphia Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He might have been issuing a forecast for the Davis Strait or northern Quebec. Hey just wanted to let ya know I plan on moving to Worcester next fall. Depends on work of course, but the next 10 months will be solely working on that goal. Excited! You guys will never get rid of me then, sorry. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 37 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Yes it looks like it for real this now. Two weeks after a SSW peaks (in the Siberian cases, only) This information and model is from Met Michael Ventrice on Twitter. He is also doesn't have a weenie bias. He calls it how he sees it. I think there is something to the big Ural/Barents Sea high and Aleutian low. That’s seems to really help get the displacement and/or split. Not sure it’s ever splits, but whatever. Anyways, from what I saw...very very unusual to have this in a Niña. We’ll see what happens. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites