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January 2021

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34 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

eh, is it truly major though?

Underdog that it will end up a big storm, but can't rule it out. Marginal airmass (though at least it appears better than 12/5 as modeled) and a lot of shortwaves in the flow don't allow for much margin.

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Underdog that it will end up a big storm, but can't rule it out. Marginal airmass (though at least it appears better than 12/5 as modeled) and a lot of shortwaves in the flow don't allow for much margin.

 

I was poking fun at Ray's definition of major, but what you said makes sense.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Underdog that it will end up a big storm, but can't rule it out. Marginal airmass (though at least it appears better than 12/5 as modeled) and a lot of shortwaves in the flow don't allow for much margin.

 

EPS lit up today for day 5 and beyond 

KORH_2020122912_snow_360.png

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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS lit up today for day 5 and beyond 

KORH_2020122912_snow_360.png

They are a little more bullish on a Davis Strait block...and we will need it for sure the first 10 days of the month with the garbage PAC. Hopefully a better PAC materializes beyond that.  

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter went from farting in everyone’s face this morning to posting about snowstorms in mid Atlantic. Absolutely stunning turn of events in a few short hours. Antonio Davis to Paul Kocin ... in the blink of an eye.

How many IPAs in?

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1 minute ago, leo2000 said:

It is coming from Siberia it's called a Siberian SSW. 

Is this going to cause a “True Split” of the Polar Vortex?  Or is this just another situation where it takes some big jabs and then reconsolidates? 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Is this going to cause a “True Split” of the Polar Vortex?  Or is this just another situation where it takes some big jabs and then reconsolidates? 

it is very very unlikely to reconsolidate it is taking massive hits. 

 

Sudden stratospheric warming is underway! Here's a selection of radiosonde ascents from Russia & Mongolia at 12Z today, which captured the warming in the mid-stratosphere. http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
 

Image

 

 

Image

 

 

Replying to
If the ECMWF is correct, we have good conditions for a SSW with downward impact! European blocking is the best precursor for a NAO- response (see https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020 with and L. Papritz), and it's predicted for the first week of January! https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-regime-probabilities?forecast_from=latest
 

Fh13B0nG?format=png&name=small

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1 minute ago, leo2000 said:

it is very very unlikely to reconsolidate it is taking massive hits. 

So this might be the real deal as far as a real split goes this time then...?  Hopefully if it does split, we get some of the affects on our side of the pole/globe also? 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So this might be the real deal as far as a real split goes this time then...?  Hopefully if it does split, we get some of the affects on our side of the pole/globe also? 

Yes it looks like it for real this now. Two weeks after a SSW peaks (in the Siberian cases, only)

 

Image

 

 

This information and model is from Met Michael Ventrice on Twitter. He is also doesn't have a weenie bias. He calls it how he sees it. 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ve been downright mean to some people here and Twitter the last few days. Hate to see it . I truly hope you get snow on Sunday night. You need it 

What a clown. :lol: 

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14 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Que? 

He might have been issuing a forecast for the Davis Strait or northern Quebec. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He might have been issuing a forecast for the Davis Strait or northern Quebec. 

lol for the Northeast, looks like +8 first two weeks to start the new year.  

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He might have been issuing a forecast for the Davis Strait or northern Quebec. 

Hey just wanted to let ya know I plan on moving to Worcester next fall. Depends on work of course, but the next 10 months will be solely working on that goal. Excited! You guys will never get rid of me then, sorry.

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37 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Yes it looks like it for real this now. Two weeks after a SSW peaks (in the Siberian cases, only)

 

Image

 

 

This information and model is from Met Michael Ventrice on Twitter. He is also doesn't have a weenie bias. He calls it how he sees it. 

I think there is something to the big Ural/Barents Sea high and Aleutian low. That’s seems to really help get the displacement and/or split. Not sure it’s ever splits, but whatever. 
Anyways, from what I saw...very very unusual to have this in a Niña. We’ll see what happens. 

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