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January 2021 General Discussion


Hoosier
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Just now, Hoosier said:

Don't have the final number yet, but this will be the 16th January on record with at least 20" of snow in Chicago, and the first one since January 2014. 

Also, it is the first 20"+ month at ORD since February 2018.

 

Hey look, an anti-futility post about Chicago.

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43 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Thanks.. I actually guessed 25-30" though, factoring in some historical precedent based on where things stood at the time.  If I'm gonna be off, it's better to come in higher than lower.  :P

While I'm happy futility records are in the rear view mirror for this winter; this turn around was a statistical long shot from the data you presented about similar starts. Also while February looks colder and with better chances to pad totals its not a given. A window opens but can quickly shut. Its not like its a foregone conclusion ORD is hitting 40"+ for seasonal totals.

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17 hours ago, Hoosier said:

ORD was at 0.9" for the season on December 28.  Not the absolute worst start ever, but that's pretty damn bad.  Again, don't see any issue with posting about how that ranks historically.  

bad start for sure. no issue with posting about where that ranked. Especially me, I'm the fellow stat king. I mean Chicago was kinda due for a storm anyway. MY issue was the ones questioning all time season futility and acting like it was never going to snow there this season. bonus points for beavis 34 posts on Chicago's horrible climo yet he has more snow on the ground than most places well to his north.

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If I may jump in on the Chicago snow talk stuff, I have no problem with posting historical context about low snow starts or even simply just expressing frustration about a cruddy pattern; after all we're posting on winter threads because most on here want as much snow as possible. I get more peeved at the persistence pattern posts, that it's sucked so it will continue to do so. The pattern is persistent until it changes. We've had plenty of recent examples that what happens in December the rest of winter does not remember. I personally wasn't overly optimistic about this winter, was fairly bearish about it until unexpectedly persistent blocking materialized.

I always go back to the mantra all it takes is one, or two, or at our latitude, we get chances. Our middle 50th percentile for seasonal snow in the Chicago area is near 30" to low-mid 40s", so it's much more common to get a bit above normal snow than to dabble with futility. What I did feel confident about in this winter is that we would realize an active stretch where those chances would become possible and that even in the warmest Nina winters, usually get a few opportunities for a favorably tracked southwest type system. Glad that the blocking gave us a chance to get into a stretch where we got two solid systems in a week, as it appeared quite possible it could.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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50 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

If I may jump in on the Chicago snow talk stuff, I have no problem with posting historical context about low snow starts or even simply just expressing frustration about a cruddy pattern; after all we're posting on winter threads because most on here want as much snow as possible. I get more peeved at the persistence pattern posts, that it's sucked so it will continue to do so. The pattern is persistent until it changes. We've had plenty of recent examples that what happens in December the rest of winter does not remember. I personally wasn't overly optimistic about this winter, was fairly bearish about it until unexpectedly persistent blocking materialized.

I always go back to the mantra all it takes is one, or two, or at our latitude, we get chances. Our middle 50th percentile for seasonal snow in the Chicago area is near 30" to low-mid 40s", so it's much more common to get a bit above normal snow than to dabble with futility. What I did feel confident about in this winter is that we would realize an active stretch where those chances would become possible and that even in the warmest Nina winters, usually get a few opportunities for a favorably tracked southwest type system. Glad that the blocking gave us a chance to get into a stretch where we got two solid systems in a week, as it appeared quite possible it could.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

This sentence says it all for me, this was exactly my gripe: "I get more peeved at the persistence pattern posts, that it's sucked so it will continue to do so".  I like hoosiers stats because I'm the same way, I am always doing stats for Detroit. Even if you have a terrible start do not assume it continues in an area where it will snow through April. Winter may still be a shit winter but it's very hard to hit all time futility or all time snowiest in a region like ours that relies more on persistence rather than feast or famine. That's what makes things like the Winter of 2013-14 in Detroit or the Winter of 1978-79 in Chicago so extremely rare. None of us has seen the all time famine winters in our lifetime luckily. 

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Not to mention Decembers as of late have been pretty bad so was it really surprising to have a bad start to the winter? No but when you are start talking about it people start to get blinders on like it will never change. In a moderate La Nina you can do that to your own peril.

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January at Detroit finished with a mean temp of 29.2F, precip 1.03" and snow 6.4". Despite the fact that it was a warmer, drier, and less snowy January than average, none of those metrics made it into their respective top 20 lists, a statistical backing up of what I've already said: a boring unremarkable January I'll be happy to forget. Seasonal snowfall at the close of Jan is 19.5" which is 4.2" below avg but the most shocking stat of all...Winter precip of 2.39" is 2.02" below avg. For DJF to finish wetter than avg Feb will have to be extremely stormy. So ironic in that the one and only thing that every winter forecast after on was above avg DJF precip in this region. 

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It was definitely an oddball month for Chicago.  It was only the 2nd time that January finished with a mean temp of 29F or warmer and also produced over 20" of snow

January 1939:  24.7", 31.6F

January 2021:  21.9", 29.2F

 

Honorable mention:  

January 1967:  28.9", 28.8F

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