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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

The GFS was hot garbage. Para looked ok for decent thump to dry slot. It’s pretty much most guidance against gfs so there’s that but then a lot of us are actually rooting for the gfs for Thursday’s system so who knows. 

If gfs proves to be correct with Thursday system then we will worry about it being right for Sunday which I Doubt will happen. 

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1 minute ago, Ghicks said:

If gfs proves to be correct with Thursday system then we will worry about it being right for Sunday which I Doubt will happen. 

Yea the evolution of the entire system for the weekend is wonky on the GFS. Is it wrong? Not necessarily. Does it have tendencies and known biases? Absolutely. It’s the warmest of the models right now. Between Canadian and GFS, GFS is off by a good 5mb with the high pressure. So we’re talking a 1032 vs 1037 mb hp. Big time difference. Other factor to weigh is the GFS has a very strong vort like Euro middle of the country. Problem is GFS opens up and sends a strung out weak discombobulated mess eastward while the Euro continues to keep its strength. That would have big impacts downstream. 

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Just now, BIG FROSTY said:

0z CMC

prateptype.us_ma.png

Wow!! @BIG FROSTY been awhile man. Glad to see you on here! Getting revved up for the “epic ness” that’s about to occur next several days.

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Wow!! @BIG FROSTY been awhile man. Glad to see you on here! Getting revved up for the “epic ness” that’s about to occur next several days.

Big Frosty and Brick Tamland are back. Maybe they’ll bring some snow with them. 

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0Z UK , are you OK? lolScreenshot_20210127-001122_Chrome.jpg

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

When is this even valid?  lol...

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Euro still looking pretty good. Slightly warmer than 12Z run so far but snow breaking out in NC early Sunday morning/late Saturday night 

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Note- This is from both storms combined. Most of the snow in WNC is from Sunday storm and vice versa in eastern NC with Thursday threat. It was a decent run but a slight step back from earlier today 

sn10_acc.us_ma (1) (3).png

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Euro looks slightly improved to me just not the snow map. Better ridging, slightly more south, and the secondary gets going close enough that we may get in the party. Front end thump is diminished somewhat but if we could get the secondary involved further south I don’t think anyone would complain 

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Note- This is from both storms combined. Most of the snow in WNC is from Sunday storm and vice versa in eastern NC with Thursday threat. It was a decent run but a slight step back from earlier today 
855692253_sn10_acc.us_ma(1)(3).thumb.png.d7aeb3de5e1efa40b32e1dec0c103ab2.png

Fine line like normal for this area. Interest is peaked for now.


.

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Wake County looks to do better with tonight's system than the weekend system (as of now).  I hope it just stays snow or rain.... I don't need ice issues.

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I think we'll see the Euro look better with the weekend threat as we get closer just like with the storm tonight into tomorrow. I still think it is better with what actually happens than the GFS, but it just has slower trends than the GFS. GFS seems to latch on one solution and hold on to it forever or make huge jumps. Euro seems to be more gradual with its trends.

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Euro and GFS both show CAD but are wildly different on placement of the high. Going to be interesting to see which caves. 

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If we end up with 5-6" of snow up here, that has to change the game for a lot of people on Sunday further south. Much of it should still be on the ground, if it occurs like we think it might. 

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Looking at 12 UTC GFS, still like the period of 10th - 12th.  Maybe the coldest air of the winter across the upper Midwest just prior to this time frame with some 20 below readings.  Looks to spill south and eastward with a possible low development across deep south.  Of course this morning's 06 UTC showed a major winter storm for Brownsville and northern Mexico during this time.  If Monterey, Mexico and Madrid, Spain (18" on Jan 9) wind up with more snow than me this winter, I'll be pissed :P

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47 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

CMC with around a foot in my neck of the woods for Sunday... taken verbatim

Hopefully it verefies better than the modeled half foot plus you where getting this past Sunday for tonights storm.

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