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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Hey man , have some optimism in your life lol

I prefer logic to optimism. This is a fast moving weak system. There won't be enough heavy precip to cool the column. Euro and UK both show this 

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I’ll take CMC. Check please! 
 

Not exactly the model suites you want to be in your wheelhouse, when opposed to the king and GFS, but hey, at least some models are showing snow in central N.C. again. I’ll take it more seriously if the euro shows improvement at 12z

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Well the GFS 12UTC doesn't offer much winter wise in the next 2 weeks.  Typical La Nina with midwestern storm track and demarcation line.  However, the second week of February, the cold really builds in central Canada.  Looks to be poised to dump further east this time instead of west.  Just need MJO and EPO to come in line.  It's a little premature to throw in the towel on the entire winter.  However, if it is not going to snow, would like to play golf one weekend without temps in the upper 40's with stiff breeze.  Seems that's been the case since November.    

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#  

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23 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Hey man , have some optimism in your life lol

I’ve been saying that I wouldn’t write Thursday off until today’s models.  At this point in the season, you hang on to every hope because they’re aren’t many more of them.

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

12Z UK looks really good at the end of the run for system 2. 

That is the one that has my attention. Classic overrunning type situation with CAD in place. Question is how strong is the high and how much moisture can we get in here before it warms. 

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I haven’t thrown in the towel for the Wednesday/Thursday system quite yet. The UK/Euro aren’t that far off (too fast) and other models have trended better today (CMC/V16). GFS is warm no doubt but the LP location is good and the storm is still on the models. If we can slow timing down it has a shot. Sure, the big dog storm we saw for several days is gone for good, not happening, odds of a South Carolina National championship in football next season are higher than this becoming a major storm in the southeast, but I think anyone here would take a couple inches of snow. That’s still on the table though not likely. I’ll give it another 24 hrs before I write that off for good

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I haven’t thrown in the towel for the Wednesday/Thursday system quite yet. The UK/Euro aren’t that far off (too fast) and other models have trended better today (CMC/V16). GFS is warm no doubt but the LP location is good and the storm is still on the models. If we can slow timing down it has a shot. Sure, the big dog storm we saw for several days is gone for good, not happening, odds of a South Carolina National championship in football next season are higher than this becoming a major storm in the southeast, but I think anyone here would take a couple inches of snow. That’s still on the table though not likely. I’ll give it another 24 hrs before I write that off for good

The odds of both are 0. Shoot the odds of a South Carolina national championship in football are 0 for the next 100 years since it seems impossible for anyone outside of Bama, Clemson, Ohio State or a other SEC school to win it. 

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There should be some flakes flying at least in NE NC and areas from Roxboro to Roanoke Rapids could get a dusting to an inch 

sn10_acc.us_ma (7).png

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Just now, magpiemaniac said:

LOL.  I guess it depends on where you are.

haha yeah, very true. Not all that great for Hampton Roads. I guess we'll see how long V16/RGEM string me along!

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13 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

haha yeah, very true. Not all that great for Hampton Roads. I guess we'll see how long V16/RGEM string me along!

I was going to give up today, but these trends keep me interested.  Euro gives me 0.5” while the v16 gives me 3”.  I was fortunate to over-perform on the January 8 event.  I’m hoping for a repeat.  Just a few miles might mean the difference between rain and 1” or 2” of snow.  Honestly, I’m a lot less optimistic for Thursday than I was for January 8.

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On 1/22/2021 at 6:15 PM, griteater said:

I have a hard time believing that the GFS is dead right and the Euro/UKMet are wrong. Maybe you take a blend. Either way, it’s still no better than a ‘maybe it could work out’ for parts of our forum 

We haven't reached the finish line, but indeed, the GFS was not dead right (posted the above when DC was getting crushed with snow on the GFS).

The GFS has actually performed pretty well over the past 10 years with our winter storm threats (as documented in the model performance thread, wherever the heck it is buried).  But what I suspect is going on here is that the Euro and UKMet combo are getting back to their glory days a bit this winter (especially the Euro) given the blocky patterns we've seen at times over the North Atlantic / Greenland / Eastern Canada...just think that the Euro is better equipped to handle those setups.

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Euro continuing to show an overrunning threat on Saturday night/Sunday for the mountains, foothills and portions of the I 40 corridor. Temps in the interior northeast are below zero for Saturday night and could provide an interesting scenario for escarpment areas 

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9 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I mean, northern Wake across eastern NC has at least an inch on the ground with most of the models. 

That aint bad.

This one just looks a little warmer in the lowest layer compared to that last storm in early Jan that was also marginal.  I suspect the models may be spitting out a bit more snow than actually occurs / accumulates across N and NE NC.  Still some days left, but need to see this bump a little south / a little stronger aloft / a little colder....probably won't happen, but not out of the question

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10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro continuing to show an overrunning threat on Saturday night/Sunday for the mountains, foothills and portions of the I 40 corridor. Temps in the interior northeast are below zero for Saturday night and could provide an interesting scenario for escarpment areas 

Yeah, that's a setup that you'd think would produce some Miller B style wintry precip as the source region starts off cold, but it weakens pretty quickly.  Everything is so marginal temp wise this winter of course....but it could trend colder in time given the blocky nature of the setup downstream

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