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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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Just now, tarheelwx said:

Any word on the 18z Euro?

There is no such thing as the 18z Euro, it only comes out twice a day 0z and 12z. 

Gfs comes out 4 times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z.  Maybe thats what you meant?

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15 minutes ago, Avdave said:

There is no such thing as the 18z Euro, it only comes out twice a day 0z and 12z. 

Gfs comes out 4 times a day at 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z.  Maybe thats what you meant?

I am sorry, but there is an 06z and 18z ECMWF run. However, those runs only go out to 96 hours instead of 240.

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20 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I am sorry, but there is an 06z and 18z ECMWF run. However, those runs only go out to 96 hours instead of 240.

True but most people just stick to the 0 and 12z runs.  Not every model website offers the 6/18z Euro either.  The 0z and 12z are the most popular ones

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10 hours ago, BullCityWx said:
10 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

ecmwf-deterministic-southcarolina-t2m_f-1705600.png

Love when its 34 in Concord and 70 in Columbia! Guessing 45-55miles apart as the crow flies?? Southern winters !

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30 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Still got a lazy eye on what passes through Thursday. That is a perfect example of an event that could jump north quickly.

Agreed. Looks like the latest NAM suite is spitting out mostly virga over NC piedmont on Thursday morning. Very dry 925 layer. 2m temps around 40. 2m dew point in the mid 20s. Wet bulb around freezing. A little juice and we could see a sleet pellet or two.

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I used to follow Larry Cosgrove back in the day when I was more active with weather.  He just posted in tropical discussions:

Just so you know, however, that the analog system projects a very warm April and May, and a searing hot summer with multiple East Coast hurricane threats. So enjoy the chill and the chance for whote powder, because "Redux 2020 Hurricane Season" is high on the probability charts. Maybe  it will be a season with 1996 like tracks.
 
Sleep well tonight.
 
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, January 16, 2020 at 9:40 P.M. CT

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18z Para was a beauty at 500mb for next Wed/Thu. That’s our best shot at something working out with the ridge going up behind the wave...and confluent flow held the whole time over PA/NY as the wave tracked across the country - not allowing the wave to climb north 

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

18z Para was a beauty at 500mb for next Wed/Thu. That’s our best shot at something working out with the ridge going up behind the wave...and confluent flow held the whole time over PA/NY as the wave tracked across the country - not allowing the wave to climb north 

That is beautiful. Kind of strange looking how tracks. Weenie run for me . Sure would like to see some consistency. 

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13 minutes ago, Grayman said:

That is beautiful. Kind of strange looking how tracks. Weenie run for me . Sure would like to see some consistency. 

This is how this season would go, you get a good pasting an all the way down to Savannah, GA gets snow and its cloudy and cold in the triangle. :lol:

Looks like a Palmetto state special

Capture.JPG

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15 minutes ago, Avdave said:

This is how this season would go, you get a good pasting an all the way down to Savannah, GA gets snow and its cloudy and cold in the triangle. :lol:

Looks like a Palmetto state special

Capture.JPG

If it has a warm bubble all the way into NE GA and the Western Upstate, you can count on it... 

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Man!!! It's been years I've seen a southern California ULL at that latitude and longitude.

Looking at the WV tropics are sounding off tonight. That's a shit ton of southern stream energy that will be ejected over the next few days.

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1 hour ago, Avdave said:

This is how this season would go, you get a good pasting an all the way down to Savannah, GA gets snow and its cloudy and cold in the triangle. :lol:

Looks like a Palmetto state special

Capture.JPG

I’m such a weenie I’m googling Gfs para consistency . Stupid question. Is Gfs para and Gfs V16 same thing?

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1 hour ago, Grayman said:

I’m such a weenie I’m googling Gfs para consistency . Stupid question. Is Gfs para and Gfs V16 same thing?

Yes, same.  Current GFS version is 15. Next version is 16 which is run in parallel (para) to the current version but comes out 15-20 min later 

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2 hours ago, Avdave said:

This is how this season would go, you get a good pasting an all the way down to Savannah, GA gets snow and its cloudy and cold in the triangle. :lol:

Looks like a Palmetto state special

Capture.JPG

Wheres the NW trend when you need it?

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39 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Wheres the NW trend when you need it?

We have over 200hrs to go my friend. Hope it doesn't end up in Ohio.

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Pretty much the same h5 evolution on this run of the para, but the storm is weaker (but some snow or mix down into SC)

Reg GFS also went in the same direction at h5 (500mb), but the storm is very weak and goes ‘poof’ as Burger used to say

Good trends overall though on wave track being farther south 

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CMC is stronger with early week wave - it is wintry in Mid Atl, then weaker and north with wave 2

Formula for it to possibly work out for us is weak wave 1 in early week, then stronger with wave 2 late week, with big ridge behind it and big 50/50 low in front of it to keep it south 

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18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Can someone tell me why these 2 maps are so different from each other. These are the 12z EURO runs from yesterday.

It looks like SV is saying - if sfc temp is below freezing, count it as snow (even if temps aloft are above freezing). Poor algorithm it seems 

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

It looks like SV is saying - if sfc temp is below freezing, count it as snow (even if temps aloft are above freezing). Poor algorithm it seems 

Okay thanks... DT seems to use SV a lot, probably cause it shows the most snow.

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