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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


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On 11/4/2021 at 12:14 PM, ILMRoss said:

GFS already in midwinter form 


In a typical January cold this would have been our storm?  Throwing only enough precip back to the Triangle to avoid a warm nose at 850, then moving out to sea.

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23 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Harsh and early cold snap sweeping China & Korean Peninsula as we speak.

Winter storm warnings are in force with Beijing recording its first snowfall of the season (23 days earlier than average). https://t.co/FuSBRBaiZU

The accuweather long term forecasts (which mean nothing really) are now showing several snow chances the 2 weeks following Christmas. FWIW

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Every year I always think about what a “good” winter means to me. Being from central NC and having spent my full life either here or the upstate of South Carolina, I know the difficulties in getting sustained cold or any winter weather. With that being said, to me a “good” winter features:

1 winter storm warning that actually verifies

2 WWA events 

At least two Arctic shots per month (3-4 days of really cold air in a row from December through February). 

Usually winters like these also have 4-5 events that we track for days that just don’t pan out once we get inside 72 hours, but they are fun to track regardless. 

The last few winters (going back to the December 2018 snow) have been lacking those nuisance events or even close calls. Last year had more model snow “chances” but very few had any shot outside maybe 24 hours of model runs. That’s really what separates this current stretch from years past is the lack of nuisance events or borderline tracking systems. Growing up it seemed every couple of weeks we had a WWA for snow or FRZ that would change to rain. We haven’t even had that. We haven’t had any big coastal storms where Raleigh was borderline and the triad got smoked. That seemed to happen at least once a year. I guess the moral of my story is I know we statistically see little snow or cold air, but even that being said, the complete lack or borderline or even minimal events for all of central NC, not just my yard, has been noticeable for several years. Here’s to hoping 2021-2 is the year that breaks that trend!


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27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Might get some decent and *much needed* rain Monday. Sitting at 0.15” for the month. Models have trended *slightly* wetter on Monday east of the Apps 

I hope so. I am sitting at .41" for the month.

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On 11/21/2021 at 6:46 PM, Avdave said:

Makes it easier if you have to blow the leaves or vacuum them up since they are not intact fully anymore like you said. 

I just do one last regular mow with a mulching attachment and presto they are gone. So simple.

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