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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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47 minutes ago, yotaman said:

It's behind a paywall. How much of the country and how much above average?

A large percentage of the country above average, says 10-15 degrees above. Most of the southeast except for the coastal areas. Yay.

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4 hours ago, LiQuiDBuD said:

A large percentage of the country above average, says 10-15 degrees above. Most of the southeast except for the coastal areas. Yay.

 Yeah, it says:

"Early estimates indicate that most of the contiguous United States will see highs running 10 to 15 degrees above average."

  However, the reality/good news is that the SE will not have the hottest highs anywhere near 10-15 AN and will instead be more like ~5 F AN thanks to enough soil moisture providing us protection. So, yes the hottest of the season to date appears likely for many in the SE , but nothing we can't handle as no heatwave is expected.

 KATL had only its 8th 90+ YTD today, which is well below normal for this date. However, they appear to have a string of low to mid 90s on the way.

 

  

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 For those who like it hot all of the time in summer, you're probably not going to like how the last two GEFS runs (including 12Z) look after Saturday as they're significantly cooler in the E US from then on vs prior runs.

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1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

I'm okay with below average if it's not rainy. If it's cloudy and rainy there's really no benefit because you're not spending time outside at all

There is still a benefit, your electric bill will be a bit lower.

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4 hours ago, yotaman said:

There is still a benefit, your electric bill will be a bit lower.

To be honest I really couldn't care about that lol. Moving from Ohio I'm saving hundreds a year by not having a heating bill so the difference is negligible. Also my electric bill isn't extreme by any means, we have a Nest and don't run the AC when no one is home

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I am by no means the ENSO expert some on here are but it seems there is significant cooling in the 3.4 region of the pacific which would indicate another La Niña for late fall through winter.  CPC has issued a Nina watch.  Last winter was frustrating for winter lovers  in the SE.  It seemed the plains, Midwest, Tenn Valley and even mid Atlantic and NE had significant winter weather while we were under the curse of the SE ridge.  Hopefully there is no repeat for this winter. 

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3 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah no kidding! Yall have been getting toasted down East. Hopefully a break will come next week. 

I'm looking forward to a week of low 80's with a chance of rain  :wub:    You can't ask for better weather for the south in August, and it seems as if the tropics will be heating up too  :D  

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10 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I'm looking forward to a week of low 80's with a chance of rain  :wub:    You can't ask for better weather for the south in August, and it seems as if the tropics will be heating up too  :D  

They are calling for highs in the upper70's to low 80's most of the week here with at least a 50% chance of rain everyday. Can't wait but that said, I need to cut the grass tomorrow before the rains come.

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6 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah really this summer has not been too bad but..... I don't want to speak too soon.

It's been about average really. A little warm but not as bad as some years. It's not been nearly as wet as the past few here. 

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I guess I'm maybe sort of grateful for a cooler summer, but of the 16 summers I've experienced here I don't think I ever remember one with this many days of cool, saturated, overcast, rainy days.  I'm not used to an August forecast having three days of 80-90% pops, either (which is our present forecast for Mon-Wed).  It ain't right... I miss seeing those big beautiful pop-up CBs in the afternoon.  We may not be that much above average on total rainfall but it sure seems like we are.

But it's also driving me nuts because so many of these rainy overcast days have been on my days off--and then it would be nice and sunny out on days I had to work.

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i was born in the late 50's and until this spring and summer it has been a long time since I remember having a season close to that of my childhood days. The only thing different is the sun intensity has lost its overall yellow warmth and replacing it with more of a white color concentrated heat beam. It kind of like you're the ant under the magnifying glass scenario. I have a good feeling about the upcoming winter here in SC if you live anywhere from Columbia to points North and West.    

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GSP   :wub:

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday: Models are in good agreement on another
shortwave trough riding into and sharpening the large upper trough
over the Southeast Wednesday, inducing another sfc wave along a
persistent stationary front along the Gulf Coast or the Coastal
Plain. A sfc ridge will push in from the north and could shunt
the deeper moisture to the south and east of the area. As such,
PoPs trend down Wednesday thru Friday. The upper longwave trough
does gradually weaken/flatten out, but not completely thru next
Saturday. The flattening flow may allow the stationary coastal
front to lift back north into the area an increase our rain
chances. Despite the slightly drier trend in the models, PoPs remain
above climo in the fcst for now thru the entire medium range. Max
temps will be 5-10 deg below normal, trending toward normal by
next Saturday. Min temps will be near to slightly below normal.
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13 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

GFS has a foot of rain for eastern NC over the next week.

You mean outer banks, it’s really really dried out west of 17. Actually has less than an inch for 95 west through triangle through the end of the run. We’ll see, last week looked like a lock for most areas in central NC picking up a couple inches now looks to be much more limited

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