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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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You really have to be 30 or below for efficient icing. Once you close in on 32 it is pretty much over. A lot of times models don't do well with the self-limiting properties. You really need an optimal CAA feed.

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5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

You really have to be 30 or below for efficient icing. Once you close in on 32 it is pretty much over. A lot of times models don't do well with the self-limiting properties. You really need an optimal CAA feed.

The 1034 MB high over NYS isn’t optimal?

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

The 1034 MB high over NYS isn’t optimal?

It is but I would rather see 1040's.

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13 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The 1034 MB high over NYS isn’t optimal?

it's actually 1044

namconus_mslpaNorm_us_53.png

 

This time it looks like we will not have the marginal cold issues to deal with. I know lakes lows have screwed us over the last few years. 

namconus_Td2m_us_53.png

13 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It is but I would rather see 1040's.

This is true, but it's also about the gradients.

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5 minutes ago, WeatherWeenie87 said:

it's actually 1044

namconus_mslpaNorm_us_53.png

 

This time it looks like we will not have the marginal cold issues to deal with. I know lakes lows have screwed us over the last few years. 

namconus_Td2m_us_53.png

This is true, but it's also about the gradients.

Wrong storm. There’s a thread for the weekend event.

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51 minutes ago, eyewall said:

You really have to be 30 or below for efficient icing. Once you close in on 32 it is pretty much over. A lot of times models don't do well with the self-limiting properties. You really need an optimal CAA feed.

Exactly. Water freezing releases latent heat so when you’re only a degree or two away from freezing it’s as you said very self limiting. 

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Not to be a poo poo here but for the immediate triangle next Tues I think we are going to be same as it ever was this winter.  It's just the tendency this year.  Not quite cold enough.

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4 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yep I just asked Brad P , he said the model he used in the post is the IBM GRAF Model... anyone know anything about this model? @msuwx is it accurate?

It’s had its ups and downs. Did fairly well with convection. 
 

It was way too cold with the event a couple weekends ago. It was pretty good with the last weekend. 
 

Did well with the rate of clearing today. 

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

18z EPS came in colder, here we go again...
 

18z EPS was the first run of the last few that moved a little more wintry instead of the other way.  The next, say, day and a half should paint the big picture in terms of how this is going to shake out.  If we were to hold the look of this latest EPS Mean, it's going to be hard to avoid a noteworthy winter storm IMO given the cold, dry airmass underneath that high, and with growing support for a healthy swath of precip associated with the southern stream wave.  It could go the other way as well with less high pressure and a more negatively tilted, and stronger, southern wave (warmer).

At 500mb, we can see on this run how the southern wave is a little more positive tilt and farther south thru the Rio Grande...and the heights are pressing south a little more over Maine thru NY.

Feb-9-EPS-500.gif

 

Accordingly, at the same timeframe, here we can see a bit stronger damming high configuration on this run with a little more suppression to the low in the Gulf

Feb-9-EPS-High.gif

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9 minutes ago, msuwx said:

It’s had its ups and downs. Did fairly well with convection. 
 

It was way too cold with the event a couple weekends ago. It was pretty good with the last weekend. 
 

Did well with the rate of clearing today. 

Ha, I watch Mike Maze on WRAL and he had forecasted and expected clouds to hang in. You could tell he was beaming about the clouds moving out quicker. 

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6 minutes ago, griteater said:

18z EPS was the first run of the last few that moved a little more wintry instead of the other way.  The next, say, day and half should paint the big picture in terms of how this is going to shake out.  If we were to hold the look of this latest EPS Mean, it's going to be hard to avoid a noteworthy winter storm IMO given the cold, dry airmass underneath that high, and with growing support for a healthy swath of precip associated with the southern stream wave.  It could go the other way as well with less high pressure and a more negatively tilted, and stronger, southern wave (warmer).

At 500mb, we can see on this run how the southern wave is a little more positive tilt and farther south thru the Rio Grande...and the heights are pressing south a little more over Maine thru NY.

Feb-9-EPS-500.gif

 

Accordingly, at the same timeframe, here we can see a bit stronger damming high configuration on this run with a little more suppression to the low in the Gulf

Feb-9-EPS-High.gif

Impressive with the banana high structure coupled with the 1029-1032 up above both those highs as well. 

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22 minutes ago, griteater said:

Tonight's WPC Forecast map for Day 7

 

Feb-9-Day-7.gif

Well someone earlier was saying they they wish they had a 1044.  Ask and ye shall receive.  Until the next run taketh away.

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Seems the ICON likes to go a little too extreme with CAD. A bias to look for in the future. It's really backed off on the weekend, and now it's showing this madness

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In depressing news, here is a graph I made of the long sad story of the 2m temp at 1 pm for one particular gridpoint in central NC according to the GEFS for the days Feb 14 - 16.  A tale of opportunities missed.

image.png.b57c38b320a124a8ce7f7a9e07aa8c31.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I still can’t believe how bad this model has become. Just awful. 

The Canadian is trending that way too unfortunately. Already slower with the cold push and much warmer Sunday 

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Look at that cool representation of a leeside eddy coming off of the Appalachian chain in GA, SC, and NC 

sfctd.us_ma (1).png

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