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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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On 2/5/2021 at 5:00 PM, HKY_WX said:

GFS and EC ensembles are pretty much on top of each other through day 6... For those looking for some positive nuggets. The OP Euro's evolution out west appears pretty unlikely. Additionally it's pretty rare to see a large cold dome like this dislodge and head SE towards the CONUS. Sometimes the mods have difficulty in these situations due to the density of the airmass. Normally they don't just put on the brakes and stop north of the Dakotas.

Checkout the Euro 2m surface trend below. This includes the last several runs of 0z/12z.... Notice the trend of the cold temps at the sfc bleeding towards the south over the central/eastern US. This is a classic old school model bias. It's due to the model physics missing the true density of the cold air at the surface in the long range. This likely isn't the end of the trend either...:hurrbear:

trend-ecmwf_full-2021020812-f084.sfct.conus.gif

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Observations from today:

1) a light to moderate icing event is becoming more likely Thursday night into Friday mainly from favored CAD regions northward

2) a more substantial storm is possible late weekend/early next week. Could be more widespread Likely to be another mixed bag event 

3) it is becoming more likely arctic air will move in for the second half of the weekend through early next week but timing differences remain 

4) several shots at precipitation next week could lead to more threats down the road, but these will be almost impossible to iron out until the arrival of the arctic air mass is determined 

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19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Observations from today:

1) a light to moderate icing event is becoming more likely Thursday night into Friday mainly from favored CAD regions northward

2) a more substantial storm is possible late weekend/early next week. Could be more widespread Likely to be another mixed bag event 

3) it is becoming more likely arctic air will move in for the second half of the weekend through early next week but timing differences remain 

4) several shots at precipitation next week could lead to more threats down the road, but these will be almost impossible to iron out until the arrival of the arctic air mass is determined 

I think the bolded is key with it becoming more evident we're going to have the HP in a good spot from Thursday - Tuesday... The main driver will be timing the STJ impulses that are going to come through.

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14 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The Euro, ICON, GEM, NAM, RGEM all show Friday. GFS is a clown show. 

GFS is warm for both systems but still brings the cold and a significant storm midweek. We’ll see if it joins the bandwagon with the Thursday/Friday system or stays on its island 

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26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS is warm for both systems but still brings the cold and a significant storm midweek. We’ll see if it joins the bandwagon with the Thursday/Friday system or stays on its island 

I just don’t believe the cold will make it s east of Atlanta. I also do not believe N Ga will see any of the Arctic cold. It will get cold, it is February.  But I think the cold will seep Into central mid part of Nation southward and be pushed N East.  We in SEast Ga and the state of Florida will remain normal or above normal. Days are already getting longer. The season is heading to spring here in the south

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43 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said:

I just don’t believe the cold will make it s east of Atlanta. I also do not believe N Ga will see any of the Arctic cold. It will get cold, it is February.  But I think the cold will seep Into central mid part of Nation southward and be pushed N East.  We in SEast Ga and the state of Florida will remain normal or above normal. Days are already getting longer. The season is heading to spring here in the south

What’s your reasoning for this?

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9 minutes ago, griteater said:

Late week is like the junior undercard bouts, while early next week has Mike Tyson vs Buster Douglas potential, with Michael Buffer doing the intros 

Ha, I remember I was camping with my dad at one of the textile mill campgrounds on LKN that weekend and we recorded the fight on VHS. Boy was I surprised. 
 

I tend to agree there especially if we get the full cold push.

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1 minute ago, Looking to the skies said:

Everything is working against the Arctic air continuing in strength and intensity. Days are getting longer and sun angle is changing. The longer it holds back , less chance it will cross the country 

Image result for weenie alert

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21 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said:

Everything is working against the Arctic air continuing in strength and intensity. Days are getting longer and sun angle is changing. The longer it holds back , less chance it will cross the country 

And the skies need to heal from the last storm as well? :facepalm:

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