Orangeburgwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Oz EURO and EPS were a flaming dumpster fireSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Oz EURO and EPS were a flaming dumpster fire Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Yep. That’s a cancel winter run. Good news is GFS and Canadian actually have trended better though still waiting on the 7-10 day cold. Feels like we’ve been there before... eta: end of 0z Canadian run is pretty awesome to watch the CAD signal move in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I wouldn’t fret with the same models that showed the upstate getting rain up until 12 hrs before the storm hit last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 With the model volatility (more than normal) this season, I am ignoring any models outside of 72-96 hours at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 53 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am pretty sure if you are in the Triangle it is time to face the facts that it is over. You usually don't see a "make up storm" after a near miss that is for sure. East of the mountains there are usually only a couple of chances a year so I think that was it. Time to punch out and move on to severe season. I’m pretty sure you didn’t need to say the same thing in three separate threads Keep the whining in the appropriate place 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The 180hr icon is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Get out your popcorn... it’s gonna be a biggun on the gfs, and only 7 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Major storm incoming on gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 If there is not a decent HP over NY or PA, I'm not interested. Same old thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, CentralNC said: If there is not a decent HP over NY or PA, I'm not interested. Same old thing. Wait for the next one the 12z gfs then, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 That’s a bit of ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Get out your popcorn... it’s gonna be a biggun on the gfs, and only 7 days out! Bring home another one for us Burrel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Is that better hp placement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Cmc looks like a dumpster fire. Still no consensus on the Canadian vortex. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The signal is there for cold and shots at snow, why is everyone cliff diving? Of course the models aren’t going to be consistent. They’re missing half their data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Is that better hp placement?Let’s light this candle! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, BooneWX said: The signal is there for cold and shots at snow, why is everyone cliff diving? Of course the models aren’t going to be consistent. They’re missing half their data. I think it’s the constant delaying of the cold that kills hope. It seems like a mirage at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I think it’s the constant delaying of the cold that kills hope. It seems like a mirage at this point. It’s like Groundhog Day. Wake up every morning and it’s always 10 days out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I think it’s the constant delaying of the cold that kills hope. It seems like a mirage at this point. Oh I agree entirely. I just think it’s hard to say definitively that it’s 7 days out, 10 days out or 5 days out. The last two snowfalls for this forum weren’t even on anyone’s radar up until 48 hrs before go time. Goes to show that it’s not worth stressing over anything past hour 100, and that might even be stretching it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Oh I agree entirely. I just think it’s hard to say definitively that it’s 7 days out, 10 days out or 5 days out. The last two snowfalls for this forum weren’t even on anyone’s radar up until 48 hrs before go time. Goes to show that it’s not worth stressing over anything past hour 100, and that might even be stretching it. And the last 2 snowfalls occurred with zero arctic air nearby. Now we at least have it within striking distance. We are not far off from a good thing even with some model differences on storm placement over the next two weeks. Nothing says we aren’t in the game even some of these dumpster fire runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 GFS has 4-5 threats through the period. No way we can screw all them up, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: GFS has 4-5 threats through the period. No way we can screw all them up, lol You take that back, double quick! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: GFS has 4-5 threats through the period. No way we can screw all them up, lol You must be new here. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 While people have been complaining about cold being delayed over and over and over again this winter, we’ve had a consistently cool winter, zero blowtorches, a couple of minor events, and a mountain ski/ snow season that’s the best in several years. There are also consistently a couple of posters who have declared winter over multiple times and that no more flakes would fall at XYZ location. It gets tiresome. We have not scored a major snowstorm in a lot of places for quite a while, and I get it and feel the frustration as well. But the whining about this winter is completely unjustified to this point. I am on two hours sleep and a little punchy, so forgive me. Ha ha 22 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, eyewall said: You must be new here. Trying to stay positive before the Euro sends everyone over the cliff in a couple hours. Did throw the “lol” in for good measure... I do think we have a chance especially with total model mayhem atm. We tend to do much better when snow shows up in the 2-3 day window than a long ways out on the models anyway. Give me some arctic air nearby and good HP placement and let the rest work itself out **takes sip of bourbon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 If I recall, the winter storm we had last night was not picked up by models until 4-5 days in advance. Less planes = Less accurate results. Quote The COVID-19 pandemic is not only having an impact on ECMWF as an organisation. The measures taken to contain it have led to a marked drop in the availability of some types of Earth system observations, especially aircraft-based observations. Such observations help us to accurately determine the state of the Earth system at the start of forecasts. Studies carried out at ECMWF have shown that, without aircraft-based observations, the quality of forecasts at cruising altitude can drop by up to 15%. The quality of near-surface weather predictions can also go down, by up to about 3%. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/163/editorial/ecmwf-and-covid-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, msuwx said: While people have been complaining about cold being delayed over and over and over again this winter, we’ve had a consistently cool winter, zero blowtorches, a couple of minor events, and a mountain ski/ snow season that’s the best in several years. There are also consistently a couple of posters who have declared winter over multiple times and that no more flakes would fall at XYZ location. It gets tiresome. We have not scored a major snowstorm in a lot of places for quite a while, and I get it and feel the frustration as well. But the whining about this winter is completely unjustified to this point. Right, most of us have avoided a shut out and it’s felt like winter almost every day. I think we’ll get a storm. A lot to be ironed out over the next week but cold air has moved to this side of the pole and it’s within reason, especially with the southern jet remaining anomalously active, that we can get timing right on a storm to link up. The fact it’s already snowed in a crap pattern shows we shouldn’t get down to this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I'm amazed nobody is talking about the system for next week! Banana 1050+ High! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I know, I know, 10:1, multiple systems, freezing rain/sleet counted as snow. But, there is potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, WeatherWeenie87 said: I'm amazed nobody is talking about the system for next week! Banana 1050+ High! I do not think it is all liquid ***in this set up*** and longer range models are notoriously poor at picking up CAD. Definitely not a lock to be a rain event as depicted on the models. Need to watch this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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