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hazwoper

December 16/17 Snow Wall Obs Thread

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2 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Sounds like the house is getting sand blasted.

Sleet in Harrisburg. Weren’t they expecting 18” out there?

They weren't suppose to get sleet, sleet has busted through all the front lines and winning the war

 

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4 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

My son.  Just had to.  It’s rain some freezing now. 28degress   Making a skating rink  lol 

 

image.jpeg.9e76859797fc0f10f6594179cb502d10.jpeg

If it’s 28 degrees it’s all freezing.  Did you mean freezing rain and sleet mix?

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Sleet is falling here like someone dumping sand from a bucket.  Like @@Hurricane Agnes the sleet is audible over Taylor Swift and a fire playing loudly in the background. About five inches of snow with sleet starting to pile on top. 26 degrees according to Wunderground. Forecast has possible gusts up to 45 mph. Exciting storm!

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Anyone want to hazard a guess as to why all the models and predictions turned out to be so wrong with this storm? Two days ago we were supposed to get almost 2' of snow, then yesterday they backed it off to 13", and now I have barely 4" with sleet coming down much further north than predicted, with not much else seemingly incoming. I mean, I want to be happy for the first major snowfall in a long, long while, but why the huge bust this time?

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Abington here and it looks like at least 5-6 inches out back.

The NWS site says:

"Snow before 9pm, then snow and sleet between 9pm and 4am, then snow after 4am. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Blustery, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible."

Is  another 3 to 7 really possibe?

 

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1 minute ago, I Like Snow said:

Abington here and it looks like at least 5-6 inches out back.

The NWS site says:

"Snow before 9pm, then snow and sleet between 9pm and 4am, then snow after 4am. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Blustery, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible."

Is  another 3 to 7 really possibe?

 

Certainly possible...remember that 3 to 7" includes sleet which again counts as snow....it just accumulates more slowly...most spots will go back over to snow overnight....so total additional snow/sleet if you get under the wrap around band could get there....

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1 minute ago, CoolHandMike said:

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to why all the models and predictions turned out to be so wrong with this storm? Two days ago we were supposed to get almost 2' of snow, then yesterday they backed it off to 13", and now I have barely 4" with sleet coming down much further north than predicted, with not much else seemingly incoming. I mean, I want to be happy for the first major snowfall in a long, long while, but why the huge bust this time?

The warm punch has been modeled for at least the last 24hrs it was a clear and present danger. Also all the snow maps that have been flying around with 10:1 ratios are garbage and now you know why.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to why all the models and predictions turned out to be so wrong with this storm? Two days ago we were supposed to get almost 2' of snow, then yesterday they backed it off to 13", and now I have barely 4" with sleet coming down much further north than predicted, with not much else seemingly incoming. I mean, I want to be happy for the first major snowfall in a long, long while, but why the huge bust this time?

well its never good when your in the bullseye 5+days out that fails almost always, so I think alot of us had this outcome in the back of our minds from the get go. Its not over yet this should change back to snow as Low passes at least thats how I read it. Lets let things play out. 

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Just now, LVblizzard said:

Looks like the sleet line is starting to slow significantly as it approaches Allentown.

I thought it was a radar hallucination, but it does appear to be getting beaten back some.  Time will tell.  Haven't seen the latest short-range guidance re: 850/700 lows, so I'm not sure if we still stand a chance of hanging on here from 78 northward.  Might be a good time to take a look at the 00Z soundings as they roll in.

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Mainly rain (freezing) here now with just a little sleet. Can hear the tree branches starting to creak a little from the ice. Currently 31F. Power flickered for a minute. Come on dry slot! And then maybe some powder on top?

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I can attest to that. Hellertown still dumping.

Mix of snow and sleet here in macungie, next door to allentown. That line us blasting north.


.

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20 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

If it’s 28 degrees it’s all freezing.  Did you mean freezing rain and sleet mix?

Yes. But it has lightened up considerably.  Which makes it hard to say it’s ip.  But it is.  Just a little.  

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IP has really picked up over last 30 minutes temp now starting back up now at 25.8....just measured another 0.3" of IP bringing our snowfall for the day up to 6.0" - also noting a few mangled snow flakes starting to mix back in over the last few minutes...should see a transition back to snow later tonight from NW to SE....someone will pick up several more inches in wrap around later tonight....not sure where but - nice storm for December!!

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6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Looks like the blob of sleet is up to Lebanon County and ZR is cutting across Wilmington (haven't seen any of our Delaware folks check in yet).

kdix_20201217_0014_BR_0.5.png

Been mainly ZR here for about the last hour! I was shoveling and got drenched.

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