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WxUSAF

December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Yeah I was doing the point and click soundings near us, we'd probably be snowing assuming good precip rates. 

yeah other than a couple hours of a warm layer at 850, temps aren't bad at all. with rates being heavy enough i wouldnt sleet for that long. I can live with that.

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Just now, mappy said:

yeah other than one or two hours of a warm layer at 850, temps aren't bad at all. with rates being heavy enough i wouldnt sleet for that long. I can live with that.

I think most importantly it was an improvement from both 12k/3k at 12z. Can it muster up further support is the question. We want to see h7/h85 closing off and tightening the thermal gradient. Then if the low was to go a bit east on these gametime runs, we'd be in a pretty good spot. 

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I think most importantly it was an improvement from both 12k/3k at 12z. Can it muster up further support is the question. We want to see h7/h85 closing off and tightening the thermal gradient. Then if the low was to go a bit east on these gametime runs, we'd be in a pretty good spot. 

ive been hugging the GFS/Euro anyways. But it is a little relieving to see the NAM back off its super warm temps, at least up here

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

ive been hugging the GFS/Euro anyways. But it is a little relieving to see the NAM back off its super warm temps, at least up here

Agreed. ~1.3" QPF to be exact on the 12k for you if you we're wondering. Around 1.5" on the 3k. It would be nice to see the 18z GFS continue what the 12z did but not bring the low over Baltimore. 

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Agreed. ~1.3" QPF to be exact on the 12k for you if you we're wondering. Around 1.5" on the 3k. It would be nice to see the 18z GFS continue what the 12z did but not bring the low over Baltimore. 

its so weird that the nam is showing such a prolonged sleet fest IMBY when all the temps are below freezing. Am I missing something?

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Just now, mappy said:

its so weird that the nam is showing such a prolonged sleet fest IMBY when all the temps are below freezing. Am I missing something?

Warm nose aloft...upper low not cutoff fully, flow aloft coming right off the Atlantic waters. Surface is cold, above the deck is above freezing. 

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

Warm nose aloft...upper low not cutoff fully, flow aloft coming right off the Atlantic waters. Surface is cold, above the deck is above freezing. 

higher than 850? 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Warm nose aloft...upper low not cutoff fully, flow aloft coming right off the Atlantic waters. Surface is cold, above the deck is above freezing. 

One forecasting less I've learned from this event: if the NAM shows prolonged SE winds, trust where it's putting the mix line and under-forecast your snow amounts. It's always easier to revise upwards.

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

higher than 850? 

For us, 700mb temps never break above 0. There is a slight pocket between 750-800 that could present issues, but that was more prevalent in soundings around DC than our neck. 

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2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Sure

Sure isn't an answer...  I was asking a question. I looked at 850, 925 and surface temps and I only lose 850s for a few hours in the afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the temps are below freezing. But I did not look at 700 or 500, hence me asking you.

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

For us, 700mb temps never break above 0. There is a slight pocket between 750-800 that could present issues, but that was more prevalent in soundings around DC than our neck. 

mmm maybe thats whats causing the prolonged sleet depicted on sim radar. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

Sure isn't an answer...  I was asking a question. I looked at 850, 925 and surface temps and I only lose 850s for a few hours in the afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the temps are below freezing. 

This is where you get the sleety frames for a few hours, hr 29 on 3k (750 looks around +2) 

nam3km_2020121518_fh31_sounding_39.66N_76.74W.png

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its so weird that the nam is showing such a prolonged sleet fest IMBY when all the temps are below freezing. Am I missing something?
I asked same thing a while back. Maybe its a 2020 thing
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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I’m going with that one.  Seems legit

Yea i can live with that.  I think that is somewhere between “wild guess” and the CRAS on the meteorologist totem pole lol

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

This is where you get the sleety frames for a few hours, hr 29 on 3k (750 looks around +2) 

nam3km_2020121518_fh31_sounding_39.66N_76.74W.png

ahh, got it. thank you very much for answering my questions!

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

3k has the warm nose out my way around 750. The snow soundings for the 3 hours before we sleet are pretty money though.

Still thinking 12+ out here??

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Eastern Loudoun and Northwestern Montgomery and Northwest Howard were added to WSW... everyone else in the WSWatch went to WWA -- including DC metro

Nelson/Greene/Albermarle/Madison also got WSWs

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2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Yea i can live with that.  I think that is somewhere between “wild guess” and the CRAS on the meteorologist totem pole lol

Wonder what it would show of the global had greens in our county?  It’s the NAMs cousin Eddie

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