psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, high risk said: It's the "new" GFS, but it has the old physics, so I suspect that its inability to capture mid-level warm layers remains. I’m not doubting it but I thought they changed the core when they upgraded to the FV3 version. Being non hydrostatic v the old GFS you would think the physics have to be different. Yet it has some of the same weaknesses from what I’ve see so far. Makes me wonder if there is something in the methodology or data assimilation of NCEP behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 27 minutes ago, wizard021 said: We are getting slammed in our area, you guys looking good too. 12 - 18 Baltimore - Boston. DC is now 3 to 6 . What is the WRF ARW2 smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Don’t forget to flush an ice cube down the toilet, sleep with your pajamas inside out and put a spoon under your pillows to maximize our snowfall 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I easily have this won. Everyone else better pack up their tents and go home. You’d fit in well with the New England forum if you ever moved north. A lot of the guys love dirty jokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 25/23 Haymarket at 11:45 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, jayyy said: What is the WRF ARW2 smoking? Its smoking 3 to 4 inch hour rates. I am seeing just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Its smoking 3 to 4 inch hour rates. I am seeing just that. In New York? Where exactly? Ps - go away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Thanks. I'm not really on social media other than here lol. Mby forecast is for 8"-14" total storm . I feel 75% confident I'm gonna go more conservative and reduce my totals from yesterday. I'll say 6-10 with 12 being max potential. Unfortunately I think the mix period last longer and hurts chances for 12+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, HighStakes said: I'm gonna go more conservative and reduce my totals from yesterday. I'll say 6-10 with 12 being max potential. Unfortunately I think the mix period last longer and hurts chances for 12+. Thinking the same for me here. 6-10 instead it 10-16 like I was thinking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I'm out 522N of winchester. A bit NW of lake holiday. 29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: He moved from a snow hole to a beatdown zone. Really glad to hear, and I hope all you westerners and northerners end up with double digit totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not doubting it but I thought they changed the core when they upgraded to the FV3 version. Being non hydrostatic v the old GFS you would think the physics have to be different. Yet it has some of the same weaknesses from what I’ve see so far. Makes me wonder if there is something in the methodology or data assimilation of NCEP behind it. As you noted, the core was changed, but most of the actual physics (except for the microphysics) were retained. I think that the PBL scheme plays a role in these warm layer cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: A track as shown on the models now really wouldn't be great in January in Baltimore either. No but in January with a colder airmass and less scolding water temps the low likely doesn’t track as far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Ukie bumped east abit fwiw. ...looks to have slp over Delaware bay. All I have is this one 24 hour panel. Better HP over the top this run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What are you thinking out our way? Didn't think we would be fighting the mix line but it looks as if we may be. I've thought all along this could be an 8-12" storm for us. 12-18" seems high in spite of the models consistently printing out those big totals. Nearly everything would have to go right to get there IMO. I expect to see sleet for a while with the heaviest precip tomorrow evening, but hopefully not for a long duration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: What is the WRF ARW2 smoking? nothing. The hourly maps show a lot of sleet in the DC-NYC corridor, and the snow map simply applies a 10:1 ratio to the liquid amount being generated if it's snow OR sleet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I don't know how useful or useless GEFS ensembles are at super short range but it's crazy how much variation exists in the ensembles over the next 40 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: All I have is this one 24 hour panel. Better HP over the top this run too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No but in January with a colder airmass and less scolding water temps the low likely doesn’t track as far west. Won't debate that. Just saying there is more wrong with this storm now than the airmass. There is cold air around to tap. It isn't like it's 32 degrees in New England and Upstate NY right now. The track is just putrid for the I-95 corridor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: I don't know how useful or useless GEFS ensembles are at super short range but it's crazy how much variation exists in the ensembles over the next 40 hours. I agree, there is still some wiggle room. We almost had more consensus a day or two ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Oh man. That looks really nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No but in January with a colder airmass and less scolding water temps the low likely doesn’t track as far west. Now hang on...so the low is tracking west BECAUSE of warmer water temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Zdudswx said: I agree, there is still some wiggle room. We almost had more consensus a day or two ago Yeah. I mean, there are ensemble members that shut us all out, and there are ensemble members that look like the GFS 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, high risk said: As you noted, the core was changed, but most of the actual physics (except for the microphysics) were retained. I think that the PBL scheme plays a role in these warm layer cases. Ah new peramiterization same flawed math. I kid of course. If not for the euro the gfs would be the gold standard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Yeah. I mean, there are ensemble members that shut us all out, and there are ensemble members that look like the GFS 3 days ago. It’s a tough call, gonna come down to a few miles. I don’t envy the tv meteorologists seems like pitchforks either way. I think we really need to cash in on a front end thump and hope for any backend snow as icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Zdudswx said: It’s a tough call, gonna come down to a few miles. I don’t envy the tv meteorologists seems like pitchforks either way. I think we really need to cash in on a front end thump and hope for any backend snow as icing. Yeah you know how we do here...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, Fozz said: You’d fit in well with the New England forum if you ever moved north. A lot of the guys love dirty jokes. I prefer being with the prudish bores in the Mid Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah you know how we do here...lol Always, but at least it keeps it interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 24/22 30.20 Expecting mostly snow at 1545' here in Augusta County NW of Staunton. Snow onset T minus 9 hrs and counting. Let's do this and get pummeled by fatties! eta: 23/21 15 minutes later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Is it normal to see so much variation among ensemble members this close to an event? I know some variation is normal but 1-2” of snow to slop versus 6+ in dc seems pretty wild this close to the event. Those 30-40 miles could mean everything for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 22/19 elevation: 500 ft nice to see dew points in the teens ahead of the event New WSW issued for 6-12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now